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Thursday, 27 May 21
CHINA POWER DEMAND EXCEEDS PRE-COVID-19 LEVELS; THERMAL OUTPUT STRONG - FITCH RATINGS
 Rising Consumption: Total power consumption rose by 21.2% yoy to 1,921.9GWh in 1Q21 due to the fast recovery of China’s economy, after a drop of 6.5% in 1Q20 when market demand was dampened by the Covid-19 outbreak. Demand from the industrial sector, the main driver of power consumption growth, surged by 23.9% yoy in 1Q21.Consumption from the tertiary sector and agricultural users also jumped by 28.2% and 26.4%, respectively, during the quarter, Fitch Ratings says in its latest report.
Demand Exceeds Pre-Covid-19Levels
Power demand gained 14.4% in 1Q21 from 1Q19, driven by the industrial sector’s 15.3% increase and the tertiary sector’s 16.5% gain. Demand from agricultural users, which accounted for only 1.1% of total demand, surged by 31.3%in 1Q21 from 1Q19, led by the upgrade of power grids in rural areas.
Higher Contribution from Tertiary Sector
The contribution of the tertiary sector to consumption rose to 17.3% in 1Q21, from 16.7% in 1Q20. Tertiary demand was marked by the rapid consumption growth of information and technology services, which jumped by 26.5% on average in the past two years due to the fast development of big data, cloud computing and internet of things sector. Demand from the charging and battery swapping industry shot up by 92.2% on average in 2019 and 2020, the result of faster growth in the new-energy vehicle sector.
Thermal Power Underpins Generation Growth
Power generation rose by 19% yoy in 1Q21, primarily driven by thermal power’s output increase of21.1%, accounting for 73% of total power supply, which was 7pp higher than 2020. This was because of the higher output from heating power co-generation thermal units, and lower wind and solar contribution in winter.
Fuel Mix Continues to Improve
The proportion of coal-fired power capacity in China’s fuel mix decreased to 48.8% in 1Q21, after dropping to below 50% for the first time byend-2020. Fitch Ratings expects the share to drop in 2021, as China is promoting renewable energy to achieve net zero emissions by 2060. China added 23.5GW in power capacity in 1Q21, 55% of which were non-fossil fuels, including 5.33GWin solar power capacity, a 56% yoy gain, and 5.26GW in wind power capacity, a 123% jump. China also added 1.15GW in nuclear power capacity and 1.09GW in hydropower capacity in 1Q21.
Improving Coal-Fired Power Plants’ Flexibility
The report further noted that, some provinces, such as Shandong, have extended the service life of some large and efficient coal-fired power units, which also supply heat and have met environmental protection requirements This will ensure a stable power supply as renew able energy is usually affected by the intermittent nature of its source.
Utilisation Hours Improved in1Q21
Utilisation hours (UH) rose by 97 to 915 in 1Q21 from 1Q19 as power demand recovered further. Wind power UH improved by 69 hours to 619 hours, while solar power UH increased to 300 hours, up by 10 hours from1Q19. Yunnan, Sichuan and Jiangsu were the top-three provinces with the highest wind UH, while north-east and north-west China had the highest solar UH.
Thermal and nuclear power UH surged by 165 and 218, respectively, from 1Q20 due to strong consumption growth, higher connection priority for heat-power co-generation in the heating season, and lower output of hydropower, whose UH fell by 21 as a result of lower water flow.
Thermal power capacity installation rose by 10.6GW in 1Q21, including 4.77GW coal-fired power and 2.95GW gas-fired power, some of which were used for peak shaving. We expect renewable energy to continue to drive China’s power capacity installation in the rest of 2021 as the state is pushing for renewable energy to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060.Generation capex in 1Q21amounted to CNY79.5 billion, including 49.4% in wind, solar and biomass, 30.8% in hydro and 9.7% in nuclear. Capex contribution from thermal power fell to 10.1% in 1Q21, from 10.5% in 2020, under the government’s restrictions on thermal power installations given the environmental ramifications.
High Coal Prices to Squeeze Power Generating Companies’ Profit
Coal production rose 16% yoy to 970 million tonnes in 1Q21, slower than the 22% growth of coal-fired power output, resulting in higher coal prices. The Qinhuangdao 5,500 kcal/kg coal price rose 72.6% yoy to CNY 801/tonne by end April-2021. High coal prices will squeeze power generating companies’ profit and operating cash flow, which will be worsened by a lower coal-fired power tariff due to higher market trading volume.
By: Ms.Zhihua Zhang | Ms. Diana Xia
Fitch Ratings, China
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Wednesday, 21 June 23
CHINA'S MAY COAL IMPORTS FROM AUSTRALIA RECOVER TO PRE-BAN LEVELS - REUTERS
Australian coal sales to China increased in May, as trade resumed between them even as overall coal demand weakened against an uncertain macroecono ...
Monday, 19 June 23
DROUGHT-DEPLETED HYDROPOWER DRIVES CHINA TO TURN TO COAL - REUTERS
China has leant hard on coal-fired power plants as well as wind and solar generators to make up for a shortfall in hydroelectric generation as a re ...
Monday, 19 June 23
CHINA COAL OUTPUT UP 4.2 PCT IN MAY - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output posted steady growth in May, official data showed.
The country produced 390 million tonnes of raw coal ...
Wednesday, 24 May 23
AMMONIA-FUELLED BULK CARRIERS WITHIN FIVE YEARS - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Within five years, ships powered by clean ammonia could be a feature on the iron ore trade routes between West Australia and East Asia.
A study ...
Tuesday, 23 May 23
CHINA'S APRIL COAL OUTPUT LEAPS 11% ON YEAR, BUT DEMAND DOWNTURN LOOMS - REUTERS
China’s daily coal output in April jumped 11% from the same month a year earlier, boosted by Beijing’s order to increase supply to ensu ...
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- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Australian Coal Association
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
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