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Thursday, 27 May 21
CHINA POWER DEMAND EXCEEDS PRE-COVID-19 LEVELS; THERMAL OUTPUT STRONG - FITCH RATINGS
 Rising Consumption: Total power consumption rose by 21.2% yoy to 1,921.9GWh in 1Q21 due to the fast recovery of China’s economy, after a drop of 6.5% in 1Q20 when market demand was dampened by the Covid-19 outbreak. Demand from the industrial sector, the main driver of power consumption growth, surged by 23.9% yoy in 1Q21.Consumption from the tertiary sector and agricultural users also jumped by 28.2% and 26.4%, respectively, during the quarter, Fitch Ratings says in its latest report.
Demand Exceeds Pre-Covid-19Levels
Power demand gained 14.4% in 1Q21 from 1Q19, driven by the industrial sector’s 15.3% increase and the tertiary sector’s 16.5% gain. Demand from agricultural users, which accounted for only 1.1% of total demand, surged by 31.3%in 1Q21 from 1Q19, led by the upgrade of power grids in rural areas.
Higher Contribution from Tertiary Sector
The contribution of the tertiary sector to consumption rose to 17.3% in 1Q21, from 16.7% in 1Q20. Tertiary demand was marked by the rapid consumption growth of information and technology services, which jumped by 26.5% on average in the past two years due to the fast development of big data, cloud computing and internet of things sector. Demand from the charging and battery swapping industry shot up by 92.2% on average in 2019 and 2020, the result of faster growth in the new-energy vehicle sector.
Thermal Power Underpins Generation Growth
Power generation rose by 19% yoy in 1Q21, primarily driven by thermal power’s output increase of21.1%, accounting for 73% of total power supply, which was 7pp higher than 2020. This was because of the higher output from heating power co-generation thermal units, and lower wind and solar contribution in winter.
Fuel Mix Continues to Improve
The proportion of coal-fired power capacity in China’s fuel mix decreased to 48.8% in 1Q21, after dropping to below 50% for the first time byend-2020. Fitch Ratings expects the share to drop in 2021, as China is promoting renewable energy to achieve net zero emissions by 2060. China added 23.5GW in power capacity in 1Q21, 55% of which were non-fossil fuels, including 5.33GWin solar power capacity, a 56% yoy gain, and 5.26GW in wind power capacity, a 123% jump. China also added 1.15GW in nuclear power capacity and 1.09GW in hydropower capacity in 1Q21.
Improving Coal-Fired Power Plants’ Flexibility
The report further noted that, some provinces, such as Shandong, have extended the service life of some large and efficient coal-fired power units, which also supply heat and have met environmental protection requirements This will ensure a stable power supply as renew able energy is usually affected by the intermittent nature of its source.
Utilisation Hours Improved in1Q21
Utilisation hours (UH) rose by 97 to 915 in 1Q21 from 1Q19 as power demand recovered further. Wind power UH improved by 69 hours to 619 hours, while solar power UH increased to 300 hours, up by 10 hours from1Q19. Yunnan, Sichuan and Jiangsu were the top-three provinces with the highest wind UH, while north-east and north-west China had the highest solar UH.
Thermal and nuclear power UH surged by 165 and 218, respectively, from 1Q20 due to strong consumption growth, higher connection priority for heat-power co-generation in the heating season, and lower output of hydropower, whose UH fell by 21 as a result of lower water flow.
Thermal power capacity installation rose by 10.6GW in 1Q21, including 4.77GW coal-fired power and 2.95GW gas-fired power, some of which were used for peak shaving. We expect renewable energy to continue to drive China’s power capacity installation in the rest of 2021 as the state is pushing for renewable energy to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060.Generation capex in 1Q21amounted to CNY79.5 billion, including 49.4% in wind, solar and biomass, 30.8% in hydro and 9.7% in nuclear. Capex contribution from thermal power fell to 10.1% in 1Q21, from 10.5% in 2020, under the government’s restrictions on thermal power installations given the environmental ramifications.
High Coal Prices to Squeeze Power Generating Companies’ Profit
Coal production rose 16% yoy to 970 million tonnes in 1Q21, slower than the 22% growth of coal-fired power output, resulting in higher coal prices. The Qinhuangdao 5,500 kcal/kg coal price rose 72.6% yoy to CNY 801/tonne by end April-2021. High coal prices will squeeze power generating companies’ profit and operating cash flow, which will be worsened by a lower coal-fired power tariff due to higher market trading volume.
By: Ms.Zhihua Zhang | Ms. Diana Xia
Fitch Ratings, China
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Sunday, 10 September 23
CHINA AUGUST COAL IMPORTS OF 44.3 MLN T HIT RECORD - REUTERS
China, the world’s top coal consumer, imported 44.3 million metric tons of the fuel last month, customs data showed, the highest amount in an ...
Tuesday, 22 August 23
CHINA'S COAL PRODUCTION LOGS STEADY GROWTH IN JANUARY-JULY: XINHUA
China’s output of raw coal went up 3.6 percent year on year in the first seven months of this year, official data showed.
The ...
Sunday, 13 August 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: LNG SUPPLY RISKS LINGER - ING
Energy – OPEC sees deficit over remainder of 2023
Oil prices came under some pressure yesterday with ICE Brent settling a litt ...
Wednesday, 09 August 23
COAL TRADE TO RETURN TO 2019 LEVELS - BALTIC EXCHANGE
The International Energy Agency’s mid-year Coal Market Update for 2023 brings both positive and concerning news for the global coal industry. ...
Sunday, 23 July 23
ANALYSIS-INDIA'S COAL MINING BET STUMBLES AS WARY BANKS WEIGH RISING RISKS - REUTERS
India’s drive to ramp up coal output to meet growing energy demand is faltering due to banks’ reluctance to finance newly auctioned min ...
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- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- The University of Queensland
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Australian Coal Association
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
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