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Thursday, 27 May 21
CHINA POWER DEMAND EXCEEDS PRE-COVID-19 LEVELS; THERMAL OUTPUT STRONG - FITCH RATINGS
 Rising Consumption: Total power consumption rose by 21.2% yoy to 1,921.9GWh in 1Q21 due to the fast recovery of China’s economy, after a drop of 6.5% in 1Q20 when market demand was dampened by the Covid-19 outbreak. Demand from the industrial sector, the main driver of power consumption growth, surged by 23.9% yoy in 1Q21.Consumption from the tertiary sector and agricultural users also jumped by 28.2% and 26.4%, respectively, during the quarter, Fitch Ratings says in its latest report.
Demand Exceeds Pre-Covid-19Levels
Power demand gained 14.4% in 1Q21 from 1Q19, driven by the industrial sector’s 15.3% increase and the tertiary sector’s 16.5% gain. Demand from agricultural users, which accounted for only 1.1% of total demand, surged by 31.3%in 1Q21 from 1Q19, led by the upgrade of power grids in rural areas.
Higher Contribution from Tertiary Sector
The contribution of the tertiary sector to consumption rose to 17.3% in 1Q21, from 16.7% in 1Q20. Tertiary demand was marked by the rapid consumption growth of information and technology services, which jumped by 26.5% on average in the past two years due to the fast development of big data, cloud computing and internet of things sector. Demand from the charging and battery swapping industry shot up by 92.2% on average in 2019 and 2020, the result of faster growth in the new-energy vehicle sector.
Thermal Power Underpins Generation Growth
Power generation rose by 19% yoy in 1Q21, primarily driven by thermal power’s output increase of21.1%, accounting for 73% of total power supply, which was 7pp higher than 2020. This was because of the higher output from heating power co-generation thermal units, and lower wind and solar contribution in winter.
Fuel Mix Continues to Improve
The proportion of coal-fired power capacity in China’s fuel mix decreased to 48.8% in 1Q21, after dropping to below 50% for the first time byend-2020. Fitch Ratings expects the share to drop in 2021, as China is promoting renewable energy to achieve net zero emissions by 2060. China added 23.5GW in power capacity in 1Q21, 55% of which were non-fossil fuels, including 5.33GWin solar power capacity, a 56% yoy gain, and 5.26GW in wind power capacity, a 123% jump. China also added 1.15GW in nuclear power capacity and 1.09GW in hydropower capacity in 1Q21.
Improving Coal-Fired Power Plants’ Flexibility
The report further noted that, some provinces, such as Shandong, have extended the service life of some large and efficient coal-fired power units, which also supply heat and have met environmental protection requirements This will ensure a stable power supply as renew able energy is usually affected by the intermittent nature of its source.
Utilisation Hours Improved in1Q21
Utilisation hours (UH) rose by 97 to 915 in 1Q21 from 1Q19 as power demand recovered further. Wind power UH improved by 69 hours to 619 hours, while solar power UH increased to 300 hours, up by 10 hours from1Q19. Yunnan, Sichuan and Jiangsu were the top-three provinces with the highest wind UH, while north-east and north-west China had the highest solar UH.
Thermal and nuclear power UH surged by 165 and 218, respectively, from 1Q20 due to strong consumption growth, higher connection priority for heat-power co-generation in the heating season, and lower output of hydropower, whose UH fell by 21 as a result of lower water flow.
Thermal power capacity installation rose by 10.6GW in 1Q21, including 4.77GW coal-fired power and 2.95GW gas-fired power, some of which were used for peak shaving. We expect renewable energy to continue to drive China’s power capacity installation in the rest of 2021 as the state is pushing for renewable energy to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060.Generation capex in 1Q21amounted to CNY79.5 billion, including 49.4% in wind, solar and biomass, 30.8% in hydro and 9.7% in nuclear. Capex contribution from thermal power fell to 10.1% in 1Q21, from 10.5% in 2020, under the government’s restrictions on thermal power installations given the environmental ramifications.
High Coal Prices to Squeeze Power Generating Companies’ Profit
Coal production rose 16% yoy to 970 million tonnes in 1Q21, slower than the 22% growth of coal-fired power output, resulting in higher coal prices. The Qinhuangdao 5,500 kcal/kg coal price rose 72.6% yoy to CNY 801/tonne by end April-2021. High coal prices will squeeze power generating companies’ profit and operating cash flow, which will be worsened by a lower coal-fired power tariff due to higher market trading volume.
By: Ms.Zhihua Zhang | Ms. Diana Xia
Fitch Ratings, China
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Tuesday, 14 November 23
CHINA'S BELT AND ROAD INITIATIVE TURNS AWAY FROM COAL - WOOD MACKENZIE
Ambitious, contentious and big spending, China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is 10 years old. In that time, China has splashed more than U ...
Friday, 10 November 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: OIL UNDER PRESSURE - ING
Energy – Brent plummets
The oil market came under significant pressure yesterday. ICE Brent settled 4.19% lower on the day and ...
Friday, 10 November 23
COAL USE AT U.S. POWER PLANTS CONTINUES DOWNWARD SPIRAL; FULL IMPACT ON MINES TO BE FELT IN 2024 - IEEFA
This year, the use of coal by the U.S.’s power producers has been so anemic that the fuel has not achieved a 20% market share in any month so ...
Friday, 10 November 23
INDIA: NATIONAL COAL INDEX RISES 3.83 POINTS IN SEPTEMBER AMID HIGHER DEMAND - LIVEMINT
The National Coal Index (NCI) rose 3.83 points to 143.91 in September amid growing demand for coal.
The union coal ministry on Tuesd ...
Thursday, 09 November 23
WE'RE PRODUCING TOO MUCH COAL, OIL AND GAS, REPORT SAYS - WSJ
World leaders pledged in 2015 to reduce emissions in a combined effort to limit climate change.
Now they are stepping up production ...
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- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- The University of Queensland
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- PTC India Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Planning Commission, India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- White Energy Company Limited
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
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