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Thursday, 27 May 21
CHINA POWER DEMAND EXCEEDS PRE-COVID-19 LEVELS; THERMAL OUTPUT STRONG - FITCH RATINGS
 Rising Consumption: Total power consumption rose by 21.2% yoy to 1,921.9GWh in 1Q21 due to the fast recovery of China’s economy, after a drop of 6.5% in 1Q20 when market demand was dampened by the Covid-19 outbreak. Demand from the industrial sector, the main driver of power consumption growth, surged by 23.9% yoy in 1Q21.Consumption from the tertiary sector and agricultural users also jumped by 28.2% and 26.4%, respectively, during the quarter, Fitch Ratings says in its latest report.
Demand Exceeds Pre-Covid-19Levels
Power demand gained 14.4% in 1Q21 from 1Q19, driven by the industrial sector’s 15.3% increase and the tertiary sector’s 16.5% gain. Demand from agricultural users, which accounted for only 1.1% of total demand, surged by 31.3%in 1Q21 from 1Q19, led by the upgrade of power grids in rural areas.
Higher Contribution from Tertiary Sector
The contribution of the tertiary sector to consumption rose to 17.3% in 1Q21, from 16.7% in 1Q20. Tertiary demand was marked by the rapid consumption growth of information and technology services, which jumped by 26.5% on average in the past two years due to the fast development of big data, cloud computing and internet of things sector. Demand from the charging and battery swapping industry shot up by 92.2% on average in 2019 and 2020, the result of faster growth in the new-energy vehicle sector.
Thermal Power Underpins Generation Growth
Power generation rose by 19% yoy in 1Q21, primarily driven by thermal power’s output increase of21.1%, accounting for 73% of total power supply, which was 7pp higher than 2020. This was because of the higher output from heating power co-generation thermal units, and lower wind and solar contribution in winter.
Fuel Mix Continues to Improve
The proportion of coal-fired power capacity in China’s fuel mix decreased to 48.8% in 1Q21, after dropping to below 50% for the first time byend-2020. Fitch Ratings expects the share to drop in 2021, as China is promoting renewable energy to achieve net zero emissions by 2060. China added 23.5GW in power capacity in 1Q21, 55% of which were non-fossil fuels, including 5.33GWin solar power capacity, a 56% yoy gain, and 5.26GW in wind power capacity, a 123% jump. China also added 1.15GW in nuclear power capacity and 1.09GW in hydropower capacity in 1Q21.
Improving Coal-Fired Power Plants’ Flexibility
The report further noted that, some provinces, such as Shandong, have extended the service life of some large and efficient coal-fired power units, which also supply heat and have met environmental protection requirements This will ensure a stable power supply as renew able energy is usually affected by the intermittent nature of its source.
Utilisation Hours Improved in1Q21
Utilisation hours (UH) rose by 97 to 915 in 1Q21 from 1Q19 as power demand recovered further. Wind power UH improved by 69 hours to 619 hours, while solar power UH increased to 300 hours, up by 10 hours from1Q19. Yunnan, Sichuan and Jiangsu were the top-three provinces with the highest wind UH, while north-east and north-west China had the highest solar UH.
Thermal and nuclear power UH surged by 165 and 218, respectively, from 1Q20 due to strong consumption growth, higher connection priority for heat-power co-generation in the heating season, and lower output of hydropower, whose UH fell by 21 as a result of lower water flow.
Thermal power capacity installation rose by 10.6GW in 1Q21, including 4.77GW coal-fired power and 2.95GW gas-fired power, some of which were used for peak shaving. We expect renewable energy to continue to drive China’s power capacity installation in the rest of 2021 as the state is pushing for renewable energy to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060.Generation capex in 1Q21amounted to CNY79.5 billion, including 49.4% in wind, solar and biomass, 30.8% in hydro and 9.7% in nuclear. Capex contribution from thermal power fell to 10.1% in 1Q21, from 10.5% in 2020, under the government’s restrictions on thermal power installations given the environmental ramifications.
High Coal Prices to Squeeze Power Generating Companies’ Profit
Coal production rose 16% yoy to 970 million tonnes in 1Q21, slower than the 22% growth of coal-fired power output, resulting in higher coal prices. The Qinhuangdao 5,500 kcal/kg coal price rose 72.6% yoy to CNY 801/tonne by end April-2021. High coal prices will squeeze power generating companies’ profit and operating cash flow, which will be worsened by a lower coal-fired power tariff due to higher market trading volume.
By: Ms.Zhihua Zhang | Ms. Diana Xia
Fitch Ratings, China
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Thursday, 09 November 23
GREEK AND CHINESE COMPANIES OWN 34% OF THE GLOBAL FLEET’S CARGO CAPACITY - BIMCO
“The global fleet of cargo carrying ships consists of around 61,000 ships with a deadweight capacity of about 2,200 million tonnes. The ships ...
Monday, 23 October 23
CHINA SEPT COAL OUTPUT HITS SIX-MONTH HIGH ON RISING POWER DEMAND - REUTERS
China’s September coal output rose 0.4% from August to the highest level since March, official data showed on Wednesday, on rising power dema ...
Monday, 23 October 23
INDIA COAL INVENTORIES DROP AT FASTEST PACE IN TWO YEARS, BOOSTING IMPORTS - REUTERS
Coal inventories at Indian power plants in the first half of October fell at their fastest rate in two years, an analysis of government data showed ...
Tuesday, 19 September 23
LNG SHIPPING STOCKS: THE ASIAN GROWTH UP-INDICES
Last week, the UP World LNG Shipping Index (UPI) gained 3.81 points or 2.51%, closing at 155.85 points. This index tracks the performance of LNG sh ...
Sunday, 10 September 23
GOLDMAN SACHS PREDICTS OIL PRICE TO HIT $100 ON OPEC CUTS - YAHOO FINANCE
Oil supply cuts by Saudi Arabia and Russia could lead to Brent crude jumping as high as $107 a barrel in 2024, Goldman Sachs Commodities Research h ...
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- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- The University of Queensland
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Planning Commission, India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
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