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Thursday, 27 May 21
CHINA POWER DEMAND EXCEEDS PRE-COVID-19 LEVELS; THERMAL OUTPUT STRONG - FITCH RATINGS
 Rising Consumption: Total power consumption rose by 21.2% yoy to 1,921.9GWh in 1Q21 due to the fast recovery of China’s economy, after a drop of 6.5% in 1Q20 when market demand was dampened by the Covid-19 outbreak. Demand from the industrial sector, the main driver of power consumption growth, surged by 23.9% yoy in 1Q21.Consumption from the tertiary sector and agricultural users also jumped by 28.2% and 26.4%, respectively, during the quarter, Fitch Ratings says in its latest report.
Demand Exceeds Pre-Covid-19Levels
Power demand gained 14.4% in 1Q21 from 1Q19, driven by the industrial sector’s 15.3% increase and the tertiary sector’s 16.5% gain. Demand from agricultural users, which accounted for only 1.1% of total demand, surged by 31.3%in 1Q21 from 1Q19, led by the upgrade of power grids in rural areas.
Higher Contribution from Tertiary Sector
The contribution of the tertiary sector to consumption rose to 17.3% in 1Q21, from 16.7% in 1Q20. Tertiary demand was marked by the rapid consumption growth of information and technology services, which jumped by 26.5% on average in the past two years due to the fast development of big data, cloud computing and internet of things sector. Demand from the charging and battery swapping industry shot up by 92.2% on average in 2019 and 2020, the result of faster growth in the new-energy vehicle sector.
Thermal Power Underpins Generation Growth
Power generation rose by 19% yoy in 1Q21, primarily driven by thermal power’s output increase of21.1%, accounting for 73% of total power supply, which was 7pp higher than 2020. This was because of the higher output from heating power co-generation thermal units, and lower wind and solar contribution in winter.
Fuel Mix Continues to Improve
The proportion of coal-fired power capacity in China’s fuel mix decreased to 48.8% in 1Q21, after dropping to below 50% for the first time byend-2020. Fitch Ratings expects the share to drop in 2021, as China is promoting renewable energy to achieve net zero emissions by 2060. China added 23.5GW in power capacity in 1Q21, 55% of which were non-fossil fuels, including 5.33GWin solar power capacity, a 56% yoy gain, and 5.26GW in wind power capacity, a 123% jump. China also added 1.15GW in nuclear power capacity and 1.09GW in hydropower capacity in 1Q21.
Improving Coal-Fired Power Plants’ Flexibility
The report further noted that, some provinces, such as Shandong, have extended the service life of some large and efficient coal-fired power units, which also supply heat and have met environmental protection requirements This will ensure a stable power supply as renew able energy is usually affected by the intermittent nature of its source.
Utilisation Hours Improved in1Q21
Utilisation hours (UH) rose by 97 to 915 in 1Q21 from 1Q19 as power demand recovered further. Wind power UH improved by 69 hours to 619 hours, while solar power UH increased to 300 hours, up by 10 hours from1Q19. Yunnan, Sichuan and Jiangsu were the top-three provinces with the highest wind UH, while north-east and north-west China had the highest solar UH.
Thermal and nuclear power UH surged by 165 and 218, respectively, from 1Q20 due to strong consumption growth, higher connection priority for heat-power co-generation in the heating season, and lower output of hydropower, whose UH fell by 21 as a result of lower water flow.
Thermal power capacity installation rose by 10.6GW in 1Q21, including 4.77GW coal-fired power and 2.95GW gas-fired power, some of which were used for peak shaving. We expect renewable energy to continue to drive China’s power capacity installation in the rest of 2021 as the state is pushing for renewable energy to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060.Generation capex in 1Q21amounted to CNY79.5 billion, including 49.4% in wind, solar and biomass, 30.8% in hydro and 9.7% in nuclear. Capex contribution from thermal power fell to 10.1% in 1Q21, from 10.5% in 2020, under the government’s restrictions on thermal power installations given the environmental ramifications.
High Coal Prices to Squeeze Power Generating Companies’ Profit
Coal production rose 16% yoy to 970 million tonnes in 1Q21, slower than the 22% growth of coal-fired power output, resulting in higher coal prices. The Qinhuangdao 5,500 kcal/kg coal price rose 72.6% yoy to CNY 801/tonne by end April-2021. High coal prices will squeeze power generating companies’ profit and operating cash flow, which will be worsened by a lower coal-fired power tariff due to higher market trading volume.
By: Ms.Zhihua Zhang | Ms. Diana Xia
Fitch Ratings, China
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Thursday, 02 March 23
DRY BULK MARKET: THE WAY CHINA GOES, SO GOES THE MARKET - BIMCO
We expect demand growth within the 1.5-2.5% range in 2023, driven by China’s economic recovery. Improvements in consumer sentiment should hel ...
Thursday, 02 March 23
INDIA, CHINA DEMAND BOOST LOW-RANK THERMAL COAL PRICES IN ASIA - RUSSELL, REUTERS
Signs of stronger import demand from India have arrested the decline in price of the thermal coal grades most commonly sought by the world’s ...
Thursday, 02 March 23
INDIA CHEERS THE RETURN OF ‘KING COAL’ AS INDUSTRY SEES BUOYANT FUTURE - REUTERS
India’s coal industry celebrated the return of its major conference after a three-year pandemic hiatus by presenting a bullish view of demand ...
Wednesday, 01 March 23
GEO CONNECT ASIA RETURNS IN MARCH TO ACCELERATE THE REGION’S GEOSPATIAL AND LOCATION INTELLIGENCE CAPABILITIES
Press Release: The third edition of GCA will be held in conjunction with Digital Construction Asia and the inaugural Drones Asia – an event d ...
Wednesday, 01 March 23
THE DECLINE IN THE COAL PRICE SINCE THE BEGINNING OF THE YEAR HAS BEEN SIGNIFICANT - INTERMODAL
Last week, the front-month API2 future rose by 3.5%, but since the beginning of the year the future has fallen by 39% to $136.65/t, while the Newca ...
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- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Planning Commission, India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
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