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Thursday, 27 May 21
CHINA POWER DEMAND EXCEEDS PRE-COVID-19 LEVELS; THERMAL OUTPUT STRONG - FITCH RATINGS
 Rising Consumption: Total power consumption rose by 21.2% yoy to 1,921.9GWh in 1Q21 due to the fast recovery of China’s economy, after a drop of 6.5% in 1Q20 when market demand was dampened by the Covid-19 outbreak. Demand from the industrial sector, the main driver of power consumption growth, surged by 23.9% yoy in 1Q21.Consumption from the tertiary sector and agricultural users also jumped by 28.2% and 26.4%, respectively, during the quarter, Fitch Ratings says in its latest report.
Demand Exceeds Pre-Covid-19Levels
Power demand gained 14.4% in 1Q21 from 1Q19, driven by the industrial sector’s 15.3% increase and the tertiary sector’s 16.5% gain. Demand from agricultural users, which accounted for only 1.1% of total demand, surged by 31.3%in 1Q21 from 1Q19, led by the upgrade of power grids in rural areas.
Higher Contribution from Tertiary Sector
The contribution of the tertiary sector to consumption rose to 17.3% in 1Q21, from 16.7% in 1Q20. Tertiary demand was marked by the rapid consumption growth of information and technology services, which jumped by 26.5% on average in the past two years due to the fast development of big data, cloud computing and internet of things sector. Demand from the charging and battery swapping industry shot up by 92.2% on average in 2019 and 2020, the result of faster growth in the new-energy vehicle sector.
Thermal Power Underpins Generation Growth
Power generation rose by 19% yoy in 1Q21, primarily driven by thermal power’s output increase of21.1%, accounting for 73% of total power supply, which was 7pp higher than 2020. This was because of the higher output from heating power co-generation thermal units, and lower wind and solar contribution in winter.
Fuel Mix Continues to Improve
The proportion of coal-fired power capacity in China’s fuel mix decreased to 48.8% in 1Q21, after dropping to below 50% for the first time byend-2020. Fitch Ratings expects the share to drop in 2021, as China is promoting renewable energy to achieve net zero emissions by 2060. China added 23.5GW in power capacity in 1Q21, 55% of which were non-fossil fuels, including 5.33GWin solar power capacity, a 56% yoy gain, and 5.26GW in wind power capacity, a 123% jump. China also added 1.15GW in nuclear power capacity and 1.09GW in hydropower capacity in 1Q21.
Improving Coal-Fired Power Plants’ Flexibility
The report further noted that, some provinces, such as Shandong, have extended the service life of some large and efficient coal-fired power units, which also supply heat and have met environmental protection requirements This will ensure a stable power supply as renew able energy is usually affected by the intermittent nature of its source.
Utilisation Hours Improved in1Q21
Utilisation hours (UH) rose by 97 to 915 in 1Q21 from 1Q19 as power demand recovered further. Wind power UH improved by 69 hours to 619 hours, while solar power UH increased to 300 hours, up by 10 hours from1Q19. Yunnan, Sichuan and Jiangsu were the top-three provinces with the highest wind UH, while north-east and north-west China had the highest solar UH.
Thermal and nuclear power UH surged by 165 and 218, respectively, from 1Q20 due to strong consumption growth, higher connection priority for heat-power co-generation in the heating season, and lower output of hydropower, whose UH fell by 21 as a result of lower water flow.
Thermal power capacity installation rose by 10.6GW in 1Q21, including 4.77GW coal-fired power and 2.95GW gas-fired power, some of which were used for peak shaving. We expect renewable energy to continue to drive China’s power capacity installation in the rest of 2021 as the state is pushing for renewable energy to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060.Generation capex in 1Q21amounted to CNY79.5 billion, including 49.4% in wind, solar and biomass, 30.8% in hydro and 9.7% in nuclear. Capex contribution from thermal power fell to 10.1% in 1Q21, from 10.5% in 2020, under the government’s restrictions on thermal power installations given the environmental ramifications.
High Coal Prices to Squeeze Power Generating Companies’ Profit
Coal production rose 16% yoy to 970 million tonnes in 1Q21, slower than the 22% growth of coal-fired power output, resulting in higher coal prices. The Qinhuangdao 5,500 kcal/kg coal price rose 72.6% yoy to CNY 801/tonne by end April-2021. High coal prices will squeeze power generating companies’ profit and operating cash flow, which will be worsened by a lower coal-fired power tariff due to higher market trading volume.
By: Ms.Zhihua Zhang | Ms. Diana Xia
Fitch Ratings, China
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Saturday, 18 February 23
PAKISTAN PLANS TO QUADRUPLE DOMESTIC COAL-FIRED POWER, MOVE AWAY FROM GAS - REUTERS
Pakistan plans to quadruple its domestic coal-fired capacity to reduce power generation costs and will not build new gas-fired plants in the coming ...
Saturday, 18 February 23
2023 MARINE FUEL MARKET PREDICTIONS - JOHN BERGMAN, AURAMARINE
The drive for decarbonisation we witnessed in 2022 has continued into 2023, demonstrating the shipping’s industry positive strides in the fas ...
Saturday, 28 January 23
COAL GROWTH BLIP NOT TO BE REPEATED - BALTIC EXCHANGE
As 2022 drew to a close, global coal demand looked set to end the year just 1.2% up on the previous year. But that small increase was enough to pus ...
Thursday, 26 January 23
CHINA'S COAL OUTPUT INCREASES IN DECEMBER 2022 - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output posted stable expansion in December 2022, official data showed.
The country produced 400 million tonne ...
Thursday, 26 January 23
COKING COAL NARROWS THE GAP ON THERMAL AS CHINA REOPENS - REUTERS
The premium of high-grade thermal coal over coking coal in Asia is shrinking as China’s re-opening and ending of a ban on imports from Austra ...
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- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Australian Coal Association
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- The University of Queensland
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
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