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Thursday, 27 May 21
CHINA POWER DEMAND EXCEEDS PRE-COVID-19 LEVELS; THERMAL OUTPUT STRONG - FITCH RATINGS
 Rising Consumption: Total power consumption rose by 21.2% yoy to 1,921.9GWh in 1Q21 due to the fast recovery of China’s economy, after a drop of 6.5% in 1Q20 when market demand was dampened by the Covid-19 outbreak. Demand from the industrial sector, the main driver of power consumption growth, surged by 23.9% yoy in 1Q21.Consumption from the tertiary sector and agricultural users also jumped by 28.2% and 26.4%, respectively, during the quarter, Fitch Ratings says in its latest report.
Demand Exceeds Pre-Covid-19Levels
Power demand gained 14.4% in 1Q21 from 1Q19, driven by the industrial sector’s 15.3% increase and the tertiary sector’s 16.5% gain. Demand from agricultural users, which accounted for only 1.1% of total demand, surged by 31.3%in 1Q21 from 1Q19, led by the upgrade of power grids in rural areas.
Higher Contribution from Tertiary Sector
The contribution of the tertiary sector to consumption rose to 17.3% in 1Q21, from 16.7% in 1Q20. Tertiary demand was marked by the rapid consumption growth of information and technology services, which jumped by 26.5% on average in the past two years due to the fast development of big data, cloud computing and internet of things sector. Demand from the charging and battery swapping industry shot up by 92.2% on average in 2019 and 2020, the result of faster growth in the new-energy vehicle sector.
Thermal Power Underpins Generation Growth
Power generation rose by 19% yoy in 1Q21, primarily driven by thermal power’s output increase of21.1%, accounting for 73% of total power supply, which was 7pp higher than 2020. This was because of the higher output from heating power co-generation thermal units, and lower wind and solar contribution in winter.
Fuel Mix Continues to Improve
The proportion of coal-fired power capacity in China’s fuel mix decreased to 48.8% in 1Q21, after dropping to below 50% for the first time byend-2020. Fitch Ratings expects the share to drop in 2021, as China is promoting renewable energy to achieve net zero emissions by 2060. China added 23.5GW in power capacity in 1Q21, 55% of which were non-fossil fuels, including 5.33GWin solar power capacity, a 56% yoy gain, and 5.26GW in wind power capacity, a 123% jump. China also added 1.15GW in nuclear power capacity and 1.09GW in hydropower capacity in 1Q21.
Improving Coal-Fired Power Plants’ Flexibility
The report further noted that, some provinces, such as Shandong, have extended the service life of some large and efficient coal-fired power units, which also supply heat and have met environmental protection requirements This will ensure a stable power supply as renew able energy is usually affected by the intermittent nature of its source.
Utilisation Hours Improved in1Q21
Utilisation hours (UH) rose by 97 to 915 in 1Q21 from 1Q19 as power demand recovered further. Wind power UH improved by 69 hours to 619 hours, while solar power UH increased to 300 hours, up by 10 hours from1Q19. Yunnan, Sichuan and Jiangsu were the top-three provinces with the highest wind UH, while north-east and north-west China had the highest solar UH.
Thermal and nuclear power UH surged by 165 and 218, respectively, from 1Q20 due to strong consumption growth, higher connection priority for heat-power co-generation in the heating season, and lower output of hydropower, whose UH fell by 21 as a result of lower water flow.
Thermal power capacity installation rose by 10.6GW in 1Q21, including 4.77GW coal-fired power and 2.95GW gas-fired power, some of which were used for peak shaving. We expect renewable energy to continue to drive China’s power capacity installation in the rest of 2021 as the state is pushing for renewable energy to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060.Generation capex in 1Q21amounted to CNY79.5 billion, including 49.4% in wind, solar and biomass, 30.8% in hydro and 9.7% in nuclear. Capex contribution from thermal power fell to 10.1% in 1Q21, from 10.5% in 2020, under the government’s restrictions on thermal power installations given the environmental ramifications.
High Coal Prices to Squeeze Power Generating Companies’ Profit
Coal production rose 16% yoy to 970 million tonnes in 1Q21, slower than the 22% growth of coal-fired power output, resulting in higher coal prices. The Qinhuangdao 5,500 kcal/kg coal price rose 72.6% yoy to CNY 801/tonne by end April-2021. High coal prices will squeeze power generating companies’ profit and operating cash flow, which will be worsened by a lower coal-fired power tariff due to higher market trading volume.
By: Ms.Zhihua Zhang | Ms. Diana Xia
Fitch Ratings, China
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Friday, 18 November 22
REALITIES OF LOI LIABILITIES - BALTIC EXCHANGE
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The cargo misdelivery claim in Trafigura Maritime Logistics Pte Ltd v. Clearlake Shipping Pte Ltd (Miracle Hope) [2022] E ...
Tuesday, 15 November 22
CHINA SEES RISING COAL STORAGE AMID SUPPLY PUSH - XINHUA
Coal stockpiles at China’s power plants have seen considerable increases, ensuring energy supply for the winter, the country’s energy r ...
Tuesday, 15 November 22
SEABORNE THERMAL COAL PRICES START TO EASE, BUT PROCESS IS UNEVEN - REUTERS
Prices for seaborne thermal coal have started to drop as fears of a winter energy crunch ease, but the rate of decline has varied across the differ ...
Thursday, 10 November 22
INDIA: THERMAL PLANTS HAVE ADEQUATE COAL STOCKS AT 25.6 MILLION TONNES, SAYS GOVT - IANS
The coal stock with domestic dry fuel-based power plants, as on October 31, was 25.6 million tonnes, the government said, adding that the availabil ...
Tuesday, 08 November 22
OUTLOOK ON CHINA’S WEAKENED BASIC MATERIALS SECTOR CLOUDED BY POLICY SWINGS - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings expects basic materials demand in China to improve qoq in 4Q22, driven by seasonally higher construction activity, solid infrastructu ...
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- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- The University of Queensland
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- White Energy Company Limited
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Planning Commission, India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Minerals Council of Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
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