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Wednesday, 03 March 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Following the recent rally to multi year highs of metal-based commodities, amid an unprecedented global economic stimulus, discussions of an emerging commodity supercycle have gained traction recently.
Key stakeholders of our industry are debating whether this might be a beginning of a new shipping supercycle. An interesting development that could fuel further this view, is that of a potential infrastructure supercycle in the US.
A large part of the 2nd phase of the US fiscal stimulus scheme under the Biden administration, was planned to be invested in infrastructure. The chances of a large infrastructure bill have increased after the devasting winter storms two weeks ago, that resulted to billions dollar damages and reiterated the previous decade’s infrastructure underinvestment. As a candidate, Biden had proposed a $1.3 trillion investment towards infrastructure over the course of 10 years. However, with extended damages after the winter storms, the bill might end up much higher; with Goldman Sachs expecting it to reach $2 trillion or above. This will be the largest infrastructure stimulus after the New Deal and depending on the extent it materializes, it should create a material multiplier effect on demand for building materials. The targeted infrastructure, such as bridges and roads, points towards increased steel and cement demand, which will likely make these commodities the main beneficiaries over a 10 year cycle. USA’s cement production particularly is running close to max capacity utilization, which means that there will be a production shortfall if demand rises significantly. Cement production in the US came at 90 million tons in 2020, which is approx. 2.1% of the world production. Both demand for imports and cement production capacity will have to expand over the next years in order to cover domestic consumption. With the only sizeable cement/clinker producer being China (more than 50% of the global output), imports from the country and thus dry bulk ton-miles could increase materially.
The main shipping beneficiary will likely be mid-sized bulkers carrying minerals and steel, however the dominant vessel size in reality will be determined by the extent of the upward price pressure on the commodity and the need for cargo upsizing. Both steel prices (which have hit record high levels in the US recently) and cement/clinker prices, will race to the top under such stimulus multiplier and set the ceiling for international steel related commodities and thus freight higher. The last cement supercycle in the US lasted from 1990 to 2007 when cement prices had outperformed inflation; Morgan Stanley bullishly argues that “an infrastructure package could catapult building materials into a super cycle similar to the 1950s. We are 10 years into the current construction cycle, exiting a recession, and potentially facing a government-underwritten cycle of another 10 years."
It remains to be seen whether this infrastructure rebuild will be the trigger for another commodity and shipping supercycle. In any case, September 2021 is expected to be the deadline towards an approval of a new infrastructure bill and the spending won’t start until a year later, thus the impact will likely show later in 2022. The extent of the impact will also depend on how China will react to the news of such package from the US, with this week’s watch on the China’s National People Congress and the release of the country’s 14th five year plan.
By Ilias M. Lalaounis,
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
The Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Sunday, 21 February 21
ANZ DIVESTING FROM THE WORLD’S LARGEST COAL EXPORT PORT IS 'PRAGMATISM' - IEEFA
The biggest buyers of Australian thermal coal have committed to net-zero emissions
ANZ, Australia’s third largest bank, has decided to s ...
Sunday, 21 February 21
EDITORIAL: TIME FOR BANGLADESH TO FOCUS ON RENEWABLE ENERGY, NOT COAL - DHAKA TRIBUNE
Shifting away from coal is not only desirable, but absolutely necessary in these times.
In spite of being detrimental to environment ...
Wednesday, 17 February 21
STRANDED ASSETS A LONG-TERM RISK FOR MAJOR FOSSIL FUEL EXPORTERS - FITCH RATINGS
Fossil exporters face a loss of GDP, government revenue and export receipts from the transition to a lower-carbon economy over the coming decades. ...
Friday, 12 February 21
U.S: WIND SURPASSED COAL AS NO. 1 FUEL SOURCE IN 2020 FOR SOUTHWEST POWER POOL - IEEFA
Wind energy growth due to geography, design factors, and new installations
Wind surpassed coal as the primary power generation sourc ...
Wednesday, 10 February 21
FY21 COAL DEMAND MAY BE LOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED DUE TO COVID-19: PRALHAD JOSHI - PTI
Coal demand in the current fiscal may be lower than the initial estimate of 1,085 million tonnes (MT) due to the impact of COVID-19, Parliament was ...
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- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- PTC India Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
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