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Wednesday, 03 March 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Following the recent rally to multi year highs of metal-based commodities, amid an unprecedented global economic stimulus, discussions of an emerging commodity supercycle have gained traction recently.
Key stakeholders of our industry are debating whether this might be a beginning of a new shipping supercycle. An interesting development that could fuel further this view, is that of a potential infrastructure supercycle in the US.
A large part of the 2nd phase of the US fiscal stimulus scheme under the Biden administration, was planned to be invested in infrastructure. The chances of a large infrastructure bill have increased after the devasting winter storms two weeks ago, that resulted to billions dollar damages and reiterated the previous decade’s infrastructure underinvestment. As a candidate, Biden had proposed a $1.3 trillion investment towards infrastructure over the course of 10 years. However, with extended damages after the winter storms, the bill might end up much higher; with Goldman Sachs expecting it to reach $2 trillion or above. This will be the largest infrastructure stimulus after the New Deal and depending on the extent it materializes, it should create a material multiplier effect on demand for building materials. The targeted infrastructure, such as bridges and roads, points towards increased steel and cement demand, which will likely make these commodities the main beneficiaries over a 10 year cycle. USA’s cement production particularly is running close to max capacity utilization, which means that there will be a production shortfall if demand rises significantly. Cement production in the US came at 90 million tons in 2020, which is approx. 2.1% of the world production. Both demand for imports and cement production capacity will have to expand over the next years in order to cover domestic consumption. With the only sizeable cement/clinker producer being China (more than 50% of the global output), imports from the country and thus dry bulk ton-miles could increase materially.
The main shipping beneficiary will likely be mid-sized bulkers carrying minerals and steel, however the dominant vessel size in reality will be determined by the extent of the upward price pressure on the commodity and the need for cargo upsizing. Both steel prices (which have hit record high levels in the US recently) and cement/clinker prices, will race to the top under such stimulus multiplier and set the ceiling for international steel related commodities and thus freight higher. The last cement supercycle in the US lasted from 1990 to 2007 when cement prices had outperformed inflation; Morgan Stanley bullishly argues that “an infrastructure package could catapult building materials into a super cycle similar to the 1950s. We are 10 years into the current construction cycle, exiting a recession, and potentially facing a government-underwritten cycle of another 10 years."
It remains to be seen whether this infrastructure rebuild will be the trigger for another commodity and shipping supercycle. In any case, September 2021 is expected to be the deadline towards an approval of a new infrastructure bill and the spending won’t start until a year later, thus the impact will likely show later in 2022. The extent of the impact will also depend on how China will react to the news of such package from the US, with this week’s watch on the China’s National People Congress and the release of the country’s 14th five year plan.
By Ilias M. Lalaounis,
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
The Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Sunday, 21 February 21
ANZ DIVESTING FROM THE WORLD’S LARGEST COAL EXPORT PORT IS 'PRAGMATISM' - IEEFA
The biggest buyers of Australian thermal coal have committed to net-zero emissions
ANZ, Australia’s third largest bank, has decided to s ...
Sunday, 21 February 21
EDITORIAL: TIME FOR BANGLADESH TO FOCUS ON RENEWABLE ENERGY, NOT COAL - DHAKA TRIBUNE
Shifting away from coal is not only desirable, but absolutely necessary in these times.
In spite of being detrimental to environment ...
Wednesday, 17 February 21
STRANDED ASSETS A LONG-TERM RISK FOR MAJOR FOSSIL FUEL EXPORTERS - FITCH RATINGS
Fossil exporters face a loss of GDP, government revenue and export receipts from the transition to a lower-carbon economy over the coming decades. ...
Friday, 12 February 21
U.S: WIND SURPASSED COAL AS NO. 1 FUEL SOURCE IN 2020 FOR SOUTHWEST POWER POOL - IEEFA
Wind energy growth due to geography, design factors, and new installations
Wind surpassed coal as the primary power generation sourc ...
Wednesday, 10 February 21
FY21 COAL DEMAND MAY BE LOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED DUE TO COVID-19: PRALHAD JOSHI - PTI
Coal demand in the current fiscal may be lower than the initial estimate of 1,085 million tonnes (MT) due to the impact of COVID-19, Parliament was ...
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- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Planning Commission, India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Minerals Council of Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
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