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Wednesday, 03 March 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Following the recent rally to multi year highs of metal-based commodities, amid an unprecedented global economic stimulus, discussions of an emerging commodity supercycle have gained traction recently.
Key stakeholders of our industry are debating whether this might be a beginning of a new shipping supercycle. An interesting development that could fuel further this view, is that of a potential infrastructure supercycle in the US.
A large part of the 2nd phase of the US fiscal stimulus scheme under the Biden administration, was planned to be invested in infrastructure. The chances of a large infrastructure bill have increased after the devasting winter storms two weeks ago, that resulted to billions dollar damages and reiterated the previous decade’s infrastructure underinvestment. As a candidate, Biden had proposed a $1.3 trillion investment towards infrastructure over the course of 10 years. However, with extended damages after the winter storms, the bill might end up much higher; with Goldman Sachs expecting it to reach $2 trillion or above. This will be the largest infrastructure stimulus after the New Deal and depending on the extent it materializes, it should create a material multiplier effect on demand for building materials. The targeted infrastructure, such as bridges and roads, points towards increased steel and cement demand, which will likely make these commodities the main beneficiaries over a 10 year cycle. USA’s cement production particularly is running close to max capacity utilization, which means that there will be a production shortfall if demand rises significantly. Cement production in the US came at 90 million tons in 2020, which is approx. 2.1% of the world production. Both demand for imports and cement production capacity will have to expand over the next years in order to cover domestic consumption. With the only sizeable cement/clinker producer being China (more than 50% of the global output), imports from the country and thus dry bulk ton-miles could increase materially.
The main shipping beneficiary will likely be mid-sized bulkers carrying minerals and steel, however the dominant vessel size in reality will be determined by the extent of the upward price pressure on the commodity and the need for cargo upsizing. Both steel prices (which have hit record high levels in the US recently) and cement/clinker prices, will race to the top under such stimulus multiplier and set the ceiling for international steel related commodities and thus freight higher. The last cement supercycle in the US lasted from 1990 to 2007 when cement prices had outperformed inflation; Morgan Stanley bullishly argues that “an infrastructure package could catapult building materials into a super cycle similar to the 1950s. We are 10 years into the current construction cycle, exiting a recession, and potentially facing a government-underwritten cycle of another 10 years."
It remains to be seen whether this infrastructure rebuild will be the trigger for another commodity and shipping supercycle. In any case, September 2021 is expected to be the deadline towards an approval of a new infrastructure bill and the spending won’t start until a year later, thus the impact will likely show later in 2022. The extent of the impact will also depend on how China will react to the news of such package from the US, with this week’s watch on the China’s National People Congress and the release of the country’s 14th five year plan.
By Ilias M. Lalaounis,
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 10 February 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
We have just entered February, Chinese New Year holidays are about to start and the SnP market for bulkers is so hot as every seller would dream of ...
Tuesday, 09 February 21
SWITCHING COAL PLANTS TO PLN'S BIOMASS COFIRING PLAN IS NO MAGIC BULLET - IEEFA
Implementation risks for Indonesia PLN's switch from coal to biomass cofiring
PLN’s biomass cofiring plan will require not ...
Friday, 05 February 21
THE INDONESIA COAL PRICE REFERENCE FOR FEBRUARY 2021 SETTLES AT US$ 87.79 PER TON FOB VESSEL
COALspot.com: The Indonesia coal price reference for February 2021 settles at US$ 87.79 per ton FOB vessel. The February reference price is the hig ...
Thursday, 04 February 21
WHY BANGLADESH SHOULDN’T COUNT ON A FOSSIL FUEL FUTURE - IEEFA
Around US$50 billion of LNG projects in Asia at risk of cancellation
Two astonishing figures have circulated in the Asian energy sector in the ...
Wednesday, 03 February 21
INDONESIA TO EXPORT 395 MILLION TONS OF COAL IN 2021 - ESDM
Data from the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources shows that, Indonesia is planning to produce 550 million Ton of coal in 2021 and as of t ...
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- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- White Energy Company Limited
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Planning Commission, India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- PTC India Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
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