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Wednesday, 03 March 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Following the recent rally to multi year highs of metal-based commodities, amid an unprecedented global economic stimulus, discussions of an emerging commodity supercycle have gained traction recently.
Key stakeholders of our industry are debating whether this might be a beginning of a new shipping supercycle. An interesting development that could fuel further this view, is that of a potential infrastructure supercycle in the US.
A large part of the 2nd phase of the US fiscal stimulus scheme under the Biden administration, was planned to be invested in infrastructure. The chances of a large infrastructure bill have increased after the devasting winter storms two weeks ago, that resulted to billions dollar damages and reiterated the previous decade’s infrastructure underinvestment. As a candidate, Biden had proposed a $1.3 trillion investment towards infrastructure over the course of 10 years. However, with extended damages after the winter storms, the bill might end up much higher; with Goldman Sachs expecting it to reach $2 trillion or above. This will be the largest infrastructure stimulus after the New Deal and depending on the extent it materializes, it should create a material multiplier effect on demand for building materials. The targeted infrastructure, such as bridges and roads, points towards increased steel and cement demand, which will likely make these commodities the main beneficiaries over a 10 year cycle. USA’s cement production particularly is running close to max capacity utilization, which means that there will be a production shortfall if demand rises significantly. Cement production in the US came at 90 million tons in 2020, which is approx. 2.1% of the world production. Both demand for imports and cement production capacity will have to expand over the next years in order to cover domestic consumption. With the only sizeable cement/clinker producer being China (more than 50% of the global output), imports from the country and thus dry bulk ton-miles could increase materially.
The main shipping beneficiary will likely be mid-sized bulkers carrying minerals and steel, however the dominant vessel size in reality will be determined by the extent of the upward price pressure on the commodity and the need for cargo upsizing. Both steel prices (which have hit record high levels in the US recently) and cement/clinker prices, will race to the top under such stimulus multiplier and set the ceiling for international steel related commodities and thus freight higher. The last cement supercycle in the US lasted from 1990 to 2007 when cement prices had outperformed inflation; Morgan Stanley bullishly argues that “an infrastructure package could catapult building materials into a super cycle similar to the 1950s. We are 10 years into the current construction cycle, exiting a recession, and potentially facing a government-underwritten cycle of another 10 years."
It remains to be seen whether this infrastructure rebuild will be the trigger for another commodity and shipping supercycle. In any case, September 2021 is expected to be the deadline towards an approval of a new infrastructure bill and the spending won’t start until a year later, thus the impact will likely show later in 2022. The extent of the impact will also depend on how China will react to the news of such package from the US, with this week’s watch on the China’s National People Congress and the release of the country’s 14th five year plan.
By Ilias M. Lalaounis,
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 10 February 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
We have just entered February, Chinese New Year holidays are about to start and the SnP market for bulkers is so hot as every seller would dream of ...
Tuesday, 09 February 21
SWITCHING COAL PLANTS TO PLN'S BIOMASS COFIRING PLAN IS NO MAGIC BULLET - IEEFA
Implementation risks for Indonesia PLN's switch from coal to biomass cofiring
PLN’s biomass cofiring plan will require not ...
Friday, 05 February 21
THE INDONESIA COAL PRICE REFERENCE FOR FEBRUARY 2021 SETTLES AT US$ 87.79 PER TON FOB VESSEL
COALspot.com: The Indonesia coal price reference for February 2021 settles at US$ 87.79 per ton FOB vessel. The February reference price is the hig ...
Thursday, 04 February 21
WHY BANGLADESH SHOULDN’T COUNT ON A FOSSIL FUEL FUTURE - IEEFA
Around US$50 billion of LNG projects in Asia at risk of cancellation
Two astonishing figures have circulated in the Asian energy sector in the ...
Wednesday, 03 February 21
INDONESIA TO EXPORT 395 MILLION TONS OF COAL IN 2021 - ESDM
Data from the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources shows that, Indonesia is planning to produce 550 million Ton of coal in 2021 and as of t ...
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- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- MS Steel International - UAE
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Planning Commission, India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
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