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Wednesday, 03 March 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Following the recent rally to multi year highs of metal-based commodities, amid an unprecedented global economic stimulus, discussions of an emerging commodity supercycle have gained traction recently.
Key stakeholders of our industry are debating whether this might be a beginning of a new shipping supercycle. An interesting development that could fuel further this view, is that of a potential infrastructure supercycle in the US.
A large part of the 2nd phase of the US fiscal stimulus scheme under the Biden administration, was planned to be invested in infrastructure. The chances of a large infrastructure bill have increased after the devasting winter storms two weeks ago, that resulted to billions dollar damages and reiterated the previous decade’s infrastructure underinvestment. As a candidate, Biden had proposed a $1.3 trillion investment towards infrastructure over the course of 10 years. However, with extended damages after the winter storms, the bill might end up much higher; with Goldman Sachs expecting it to reach $2 trillion or above. This will be the largest infrastructure stimulus after the New Deal and depending on the extent it materializes, it should create a material multiplier effect on demand for building materials. The targeted infrastructure, such as bridges and roads, points towards increased steel and cement demand, which will likely make these commodities the main beneficiaries over a 10 year cycle. USA’s cement production particularly is running close to max capacity utilization, which means that there will be a production shortfall if demand rises significantly. Cement production in the US came at 90 million tons in 2020, which is approx. 2.1% of the world production. Both demand for imports and cement production capacity will have to expand over the next years in order to cover domestic consumption. With the only sizeable cement/clinker producer being China (more than 50% of the global output), imports from the country and thus dry bulk ton-miles could increase materially.
The main shipping beneficiary will likely be mid-sized bulkers carrying minerals and steel, however the dominant vessel size in reality will be determined by the extent of the upward price pressure on the commodity and the need for cargo upsizing. Both steel prices (which have hit record high levels in the US recently) and cement/clinker prices, will race to the top under such stimulus multiplier and set the ceiling for international steel related commodities and thus freight higher. The last cement supercycle in the US lasted from 1990 to 2007 when cement prices had outperformed inflation; Morgan Stanley bullishly argues that “an infrastructure package could catapult building materials into a super cycle similar to the 1950s. We are 10 years into the current construction cycle, exiting a recession, and potentially facing a government-underwritten cycle of another 10 years."
It remains to be seen whether this infrastructure rebuild will be the trigger for another commodity and shipping supercycle. In any case, September 2021 is expected to be the deadline towards an approval of a new infrastructure bill and the spending won’t start until a year later, thus the impact will likely show later in 2022. The extent of the impact will also depend on how China will react to the news of such package from the US, with this week’s watch on the China’s National People Congress and the release of the country’s 14th five year plan.
By Ilias M. Lalaounis,
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 03 February 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
"2020 the year from hell for the entire world, had everything for shipowners. The introduction of the sulphur cap and VLSFO, a Pandemic outbre ...
Tuesday, 02 February 21
WILL THE ELECTRONIC B/L BE FULLY IMPLEMENTED? FIVE POINTS TO CONSIDER - MOL
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The trend towards digitization of Bills of Lading (B/L) has begun to attract attention in the trade and shipping industrie ...
Monday, 01 February 21
A 56,000-DWT OPEN MANILA WAS FIXED FOR A TRIP VIA INDONESIA REDELIVERY CHINA AT $11,500 - THE BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Capesize routes endured a week of slippage on rates, bringing the market back down to levels seen at the beginning of the month. D ...
Monday, 01 February 21
PAKISTAN: COAL DEMAND EXPECTED TO SPIKE IN 2021 - DAWN
Coal demand is expected to remain upbeat in 2021 as more coal-fired and captive power plants are coming up in the current year.
Acco ...
Friday, 29 January 21
COAL EXPORTS FROM AUSTRALIA TO MAINLAND CHINA DECLINED BY -22.2% Y-O-Y IN 2020 - BANCHERO COSTA
In the 12 months of 2020, global seaborne coal trade declined by as much as -12.7% year-on-year, according to vessel tracking data from Refinitiv, ...
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- VISA Power Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Australian Coal Association
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- The University of Queensland
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
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