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Wednesday, 03 March 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Following the recent rally to multi year highs of metal-based commodities, amid an unprecedented global economic stimulus, discussions of an emerging commodity supercycle have gained traction recently.
Key stakeholders of our industry are debating whether this might be a beginning of a new shipping supercycle. An interesting development that could fuel further this view, is that of a potential infrastructure supercycle in the US.
A large part of the 2nd phase of the US fiscal stimulus scheme under the Biden administration, was planned to be invested in infrastructure. The chances of a large infrastructure bill have increased after the devasting winter storms two weeks ago, that resulted to billions dollar damages and reiterated the previous decade’s infrastructure underinvestment. As a candidate, Biden had proposed a $1.3 trillion investment towards infrastructure over the course of 10 years. However, with extended damages after the winter storms, the bill might end up much higher; with Goldman Sachs expecting it to reach $2 trillion or above. This will be the largest infrastructure stimulus after the New Deal and depending on the extent it materializes, it should create a material multiplier effect on demand for building materials. The targeted infrastructure, such as bridges and roads, points towards increased steel and cement demand, which will likely make these commodities the main beneficiaries over a 10 year cycle. USA’s cement production particularly is running close to max capacity utilization, which means that there will be a production shortfall if demand rises significantly. Cement production in the US came at 90 million tons in 2020, which is approx. 2.1% of the world production. Both demand for imports and cement production capacity will have to expand over the next years in order to cover domestic consumption. With the only sizeable cement/clinker producer being China (more than 50% of the global output), imports from the country and thus dry bulk ton-miles could increase materially.
The main shipping beneficiary will likely be mid-sized bulkers carrying minerals and steel, however the dominant vessel size in reality will be determined by the extent of the upward price pressure on the commodity and the need for cargo upsizing. Both steel prices (which have hit record high levels in the US recently) and cement/clinker prices, will race to the top under such stimulus multiplier and set the ceiling for international steel related commodities and thus freight higher. The last cement supercycle in the US lasted from 1990 to 2007 when cement prices had outperformed inflation; Morgan Stanley bullishly argues that “an infrastructure package could catapult building materials into a super cycle similar to the 1950s. We are 10 years into the current construction cycle, exiting a recession, and potentially facing a government-underwritten cycle of another 10 years."
It remains to be seen whether this infrastructure rebuild will be the trigger for another commodity and shipping supercycle. In any case, September 2021 is expected to be the deadline towards an approval of a new infrastructure bill and the spending won’t start until a year later, thus the impact will likely show later in 2022. The extent of the impact will also depend on how China will react to the news of such package from the US, with this week’s watch on the China’s National People Congress and the release of the country’s 14th five year plan.
By Ilias M. Lalaounis,
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 03 February 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
"2020 the year from hell for the entire world, had everything for shipowners. The introduction of the sulphur cap and VLSFO, a Pandemic outbre ...
Tuesday, 02 February 21
WILL THE ELECTRONIC B/L BE FULLY IMPLEMENTED? FIVE POINTS TO CONSIDER - MOL
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The trend towards digitization of Bills of Lading (B/L) has begun to attract attention in the trade and shipping industrie ...
Monday, 01 February 21
A 56,000-DWT OPEN MANILA WAS FIXED FOR A TRIP VIA INDONESIA REDELIVERY CHINA AT $11,500 - THE BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Capesize routes endured a week of slippage on rates, bringing the market back down to levels seen at the beginning of the month. D ...
Monday, 01 February 21
PAKISTAN: COAL DEMAND EXPECTED TO SPIKE IN 2021 - DAWN
Coal demand is expected to remain upbeat in 2021 as more coal-fired and captive power plants are coming up in the current year.
Acco ...
Friday, 29 January 21
COAL EXPORTS FROM AUSTRALIA TO MAINLAND CHINA DECLINED BY -22.2% Y-O-Y IN 2020 - BANCHERO COSTA
In the 12 months of 2020, global seaborne coal trade declined by as much as -12.7% year-on-year, according to vessel tracking data from Refinitiv, ...
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- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Economic Council, Georgia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Planning Commission, India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Australian Coal Association
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
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