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Wednesday, 03 March 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Following the recent rally to multi year highs of metal-based commodities, amid an unprecedented global economic stimulus, discussions of an emerging commodity supercycle have gained traction recently.
Key stakeholders of our industry are debating whether this might be a beginning of a new shipping supercycle. An interesting development that could fuel further this view, is that of a potential infrastructure supercycle in the US.
A large part of the 2nd phase of the US fiscal stimulus scheme under the Biden administration, was planned to be invested in infrastructure. The chances of a large infrastructure bill have increased after the devasting winter storms two weeks ago, that resulted to billions dollar damages and reiterated the previous decade’s infrastructure underinvestment. As a candidate, Biden had proposed a $1.3 trillion investment towards infrastructure over the course of 10 years. However, with extended damages after the winter storms, the bill might end up much higher; with Goldman Sachs expecting it to reach $2 trillion or above. This will be the largest infrastructure stimulus after the New Deal and depending on the extent it materializes, it should create a material multiplier effect on demand for building materials. The targeted infrastructure, such as bridges and roads, points towards increased steel and cement demand, which will likely make these commodities the main beneficiaries over a 10 year cycle. USA’s cement production particularly is running close to max capacity utilization, which means that there will be a production shortfall if demand rises significantly. Cement production in the US came at 90 million tons in 2020, which is approx. 2.1% of the world production. Both demand for imports and cement production capacity will have to expand over the next years in order to cover domestic consumption. With the only sizeable cement/clinker producer being China (more than 50% of the global output), imports from the country and thus dry bulk ton-miles could increase materially.
The main shipping beneficiary will likely be mid-sized bulkers carrying minerals and steel, however the dominant vessel size in reality will be determined by the extent of the upward price pressure on the commodity and the need for cargo upsizing. Both steel prices (which have hit record high levels in the US recently) and cement/clinker prices, will race to the top under such stimulus multiplier and set the ceiling for international steel related commodities and thus freight higher. The last cement supercycle in the US lasted from 1990 to 2007 when cement prices had outperformed inflation; Morgan Stanley bullishly argues that “an infrastructure package could catapult building materials into a super cycle similar to the 1950s. We are 10 years into the current construction cycle, exiting a recession, and potentially facing a government-underwritten cycle of another 10 years."
It remains to be seen whether this infrastructure rebuild will be the trigger for another commodity and shipping supercycle. In any case, September 2021 is expected to be the deadline towards an approval of a new infrastructure bill and the spending won’t start until a year later, thus the impact will likely show later in 2022. The extent of the impact will also depend on how China will react to the news of such package from the US, with this week’s watch on the China’s National People Congress and the release of the country’s 14th five year plan.
By Ilias M. Lalaounis,
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 25 January 21
ULTRAMAX YET ANOTHER POSITIVE WEEK FOR THE SECTOR, WHICH SAW INCREASED DEMAND ACROSS ALL BASINS - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Capesize market rocked and rolled these past few days. But by weeks end little had changed on the Capesize 5TC as it settled down ...
Monday, 25 January 21
NEW LAW IN CALIFORNIA, USA, AFFECTING SHIPOWNERS' LIABILITY FOR OIL POLLUTION - BIMCO
Members are advised that amendments to the so-called Lempert-Keene-Seastrand Oil Spill Prevention and Response Act of 1990 in the State of Californ ...
Monday, 25 January 21
COAL INDIA SAYS GEARED UP TO MEET SURGE IN FUEL DEMAND FROM POWER SECTOR - PTI
State-owned Coal India Ltd on Saturday said that it is well geared to meet any surge in demand for coal from the power sector.
The s ...
Sunday, 24 January 21
GOVT ASSURES COAL INDIA OF 'FULL SUPPORT', STRESSES ON LEARNING 'NEW THINGS' - PTI
Coal Minister Pralhad Joshi assured Coal India of full government support, even as he said the PSU needs to learn “new things” for impr ...
Saturday, 23 January 21
GOVT PLANNING TO OPEN UP COAL MARKETING TO STREAMLINE PROCESS - THE INDIAN EXPRESS
The government is considering opening up coal marketing, Coal Secretary Anil Kumar Jain said on Thursday. Currently, production by Coal India is al ...
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- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Australian Coal Association
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
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