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Wednesday, 03 March 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Following the recent rally to multi year highs of metal-based commodities, amid an unprecedented global economic stimulus, discussions of an emerging commodity supercycle have gained traction recently.
Key stakeholders of our industry are debating whether this might be a beginning of a new shipping supercycle. An interesting development that could fuel further this view, is that of a potential infrastructure supercycle in the US.
A large part of the 2nd phase of the US fiscal stimulus scheme under the Biden administration, was planned to be invested in infrastructure. The chances of a large infrastructure bill have increased after the devasting winter storms two weeks ago, that resulted to billions dollar damages and reiterated the previous decade’s infrastructure underinvestment. As a candidate, Biden had proposed a $1.3 trillion investment towards infrastructure over the course of 10 years. However, with extended damages after the winter storms, the bill might end up much higher; with Goldman Sachs expecting it to reach $2 trillion or above. This will be the largest infrastructure stimulus after the New Deal and depending on the extent it materializes, it should create a material multiplier effect on demand for building materials. The targeted infrastructure, such as bridges and roads, points towards increased steel and cement demand, which will likely make these commodities the main beneficiaries over a 10 year cycle. USA’s cement production particularly is running close to max capacity utilization, which means that there will be a production shortfall if demand rises significantly. Cement production in the US came at 90 million tons in 2020, which is approx. 2.1% of the world production. Both demand for imports and cement production capacity will have to expand over the next years in order to cover domestic consumption. With the only sizeable cement/clinker producer being China (more than 50% of the global output), imports from the country and thus dry bulk ton-miles could increase materially.
The main shipping beneficiary will likely be mid-sized bulkers carrying minerals and steel, however the dominant vessel size in reality will be determined by the extent of the upward price pressure on the commodity and the need for cargo upsizing. Both steel prices (which have hit record high levels in the US recently) and cement/clinker prices, will race to the top under such stimulus multiplier and set the ceiling for international steel related commodities and thus freight higher. The last cement supercycle in the US lasted from 1990 to 2007 when cement prices had outperformed inflation; Morgan Stanley bullishly argues that “an infrastructure package could catapult building materials into a super cycle similar to the 1950s. We are 10 years into the current construction cycle, exiting a recession, and potentially facing a government-underwritten cycle of another 10 years."
It remains to be seen whether this infrastructure rebuild will be the trigger for another commodity and shipping supercycle. In any case, September 2021 is expected to be the deadline towards an approval of a new infrastructure bill and the spending won’t start until a year later, thus the impact will likely show later in 2022. The extent of the impact will also depend on how China will react to the news of such package from the US, with this week’s watch on the China’s National People Congress and the release of the country’s 14th five year plan.
By Ilias M. Lalaounis,
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 25 January 21
ULTRAMAX YET ANOTHER POSITIVE WEEK FOR THE SECTOR, WHICH SAW INCREASED DEMAND ACROSS ALL BASINS - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Capesize market rocked and rolled these past few days. But by weeks end little had changed on the Capesize 5TC as it settled down ...
Monday, 25 January 21
NEW LAW IN CALIFORNIA, USA, AFFECTING SHIPOWNERS' LIABILITY FOR OIL POLLUTION - BIMCO
Members are advised that amendments to the so-called Lempert-Keene-Seastrand Oil Spill Prevention and Response Act of 1990 in the State of Californ ...
Monday, 25 January 21
COAL INDIA SAYS GEARED UP TO MEET SURGE IN FUEL DEMAND FROM POWER SECTOR - PTI
State-owned Coal India Ltd on Saturday said that it is well geared to meet any surge in demand for coal from the power sector.
The s ...
Sunday, 24 January 21
GOVT ASSURES COAL INDIA OF 'FULL SUPPORT', STRESSES ON LEARNING 'NEW THINGS' - PTI
Coal Minister Pralhad Joshi assured Coal India of full government support, even as he said the PSU needs to learn “new things” for impr ...
Saturday, 23 January 21
GOVT PLANNING TO OPEN UP COAL MARKETING TO STREAMLINE PROCESS - THE INDIAN EXPRESS
The government is considering opening up coal marketing, Coal Secretary Anil Kumar Jain said on Thursday. Currently, production by Coal India is al ...
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- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Australian Coal Association
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- The University of Queensland
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Planning Commission, India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- PTC India Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
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