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Wednesday, 03 March 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Following the recent rally to multi year highs of metal-based commodities, amid an unprecedented global economic stimulus, discussions of an emerging commodity supercycle have gained traction recently.
Key stakeholders of our industry are debating whether this might be a beginning of a new shipping supercycle. An interesting development that could fuel further this view, is that of a potential infrastructure supercycle in the US.
A large part of the 2nd phase of the US fiscal stimulus scheme under the Biden administration, was planned to be invested in infrastructure. The chances of a large infrastructure bill have increased after the devasting winter storms two weeks ago, that resulted to billions dollar damages and reiterated the previous decade’s infrastructure underinvestment. As a candidate, Biden had proposed a $1.3 trillion investment towards infrastructure over the course of 10 years. However, with extended damages after the winter storms, the bill might end up much higher; with Goldman Sachs expecting it to reach $2 trillion or above. This will be the largest infrastructure stimulus after the New Deal and depending on the extent it materializes, it should create a material multiplier effect on demand for building materials. The targeted infrastructure, such as bridges and roads, points towards increased steel and cement demand, which will likely make these commodities the main beneficiaries over a 10 year cycle. USA’s cement production particularly is running close to max capacity utilization, which means that there will be a production shortfall if demand rises significantly. Cement production in the US came at 90 million tons in 2020, which is approx. 2.1% of the world production. Both demand for imports and cement production capacity will have to expand over the next years in order to cover domestic consumption. With the only sizeable cement/clinker producer being China (more than 50% of the global output), imports from the country and thus dry bulk ton-miles could increase materially.
The main shipping beneficiary will likely be mid-sized bulkers carrying minerals and steel, however the dominant vessel size in reality will be determined by the extent of the upward price pressure on the commodity and the need for cargo upsizing. Both steel prices (which have hit record high levels in the US recently) and cement/clinker prices, will race to the top under such stimulus multiplier and set the ceiling for international steel related commodities and thus freight higher. The last cement supercycle in the US lasted from 1990 to 2007 when cement prices had outperformed inflation; Morgan Stanley bullishly argues that “an infrastructure package could catapult building materials into a super cycle similar to the 1950s. We are 10 years into the current construction cycle, exiting a recession, and potentially facing a government-underwritten cycle of another 10 years."
It remains to be seen whether this infrastructure rebuild will be the trigger for another commodity and shipping supercycle. In any case, September 2021 is expected to be the deadline towards an approval of a new infrastructure bill and the spending won’t start until a year later, thus the impact will likely show later in 2022. The extent of the impact will also depend on how China will react to the news of such package from the US, with this week’s watch on the China’s National People Congress and the release of the country’s 14th five year plan.
By Ilias M. Lalaounis,
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 21 January 21
LNG MARKET RIDING HIGH, BUT WILL THE GAINS CONTINUE? - DREWRY
The LNG market started 2021 on a high note with Asian spot prices crossing $30 per MMBtu while LNG shipping rates recorded a high $350k per day due ...
Thursday, 21 January 21
CHINA'S SPOT THERMAL COAL PRICES REFRESH RECORD HIGH - MYSTEEL
Despite the moderate rebound in temperatures across most regions of China after late December’s deep-freeze, thermal coal prices in the count ...
Wednesday, 20 January 21
CORONAVIRUS OUTBREAK IN HEBEI HAS LIMITED IMPACT ON CHINA'S STEEL INDUSTRY - FITCH RATINGS
The recent Covid-19 outbreak in the steel producing hub Hebei will not have material impact on China’s steel industry, Fitch Ratings says.
...
Wednesday, 20 January 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
While 2020 is finally behind us, its negative impacts are still hovering over the shipping market. That being said, it is still too early to even s ...
Saturday, 16 January 21
SEABORNE TRADE IN STEAM COAL DECREASED BY 11.6% FROM 937 MILLION TONNES IN 2019 TO 828 MILLION TONNES IN 2020 - COAL IMPORTERS ASSOCIATION, GERMANY
According to preliminary calculations by the German Coal Importers Association (Verein der Kohlenimporteure e. V.), global hard coal production dec ...
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- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Planning Commission, India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- The University of Queensland
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
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