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Wednesday, 03 March 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Following the recent rally to multi year highs of metal-based commodities, amid an unprecedented global economic stimulus, discussions of an emerging commodity supercycle have gained traction recently.
Key stakeholders of our industry are debating whether this might be a beginning of a new shipping supercycle. An interesting development that could fuel further this view, is that of a potential infrastructure supercycle in the US.
A large part of the 2nd phase of the US fiscal stimulus scheme under the Biden administration, was planned to be invested in infrastructure. The chances of a large infrastructure bill have increased after the devasting winter storms two weeks ago, that resulted to billions dollar damages and reiterated the previous decade’s infrastructure underinvestment. As a candidate, Biden had proposed a $1.3 trillion investment towards infrastructure over the course of 10 years. However, with extended damages after the winter storms, the bill might end up much higher; with Goldman Sachs expecting it to reach $2 trillion or above. This will be the largest infrastructure stimulus after the New Deal and depending on the extent it materializes, it should create a material multiplier effect on demand for building materials. The targeted infrastructure, such as bridges and roads, points towards increased steel and cement demand, which will likely make these commodities the main beneficiaries over a 10 year cycle. USA’s cement production particularly is running close to max capacity utilization, which means that there will be a production shortfall if demand rises significantly. Cement production in the US came at 90 million tons in 2020, which is approx. 2.1% of the world production. Both demand for imports and cement production capacity will have to expand over the next years in order to cover domestic consumption. With the only sizeable cement/clinker producer being China (more than 50% of the global output), imports from the country and thus dry bulk ton-miles could increase materially.
The main shipping beneficiary will likely be mid-sized bulkers carrying minerals and steel, however the dominant vessel size in reality will be determined by the extent of the upward price pressure on the commodity and the need for cargo upsizing. Both steel prices (which have hit record high levels in the US recently) and cement/clinker prices, will race to the top under such stimulus multiplier and set the ceiling for international steel related commodities and thus freight higher. The last cement supercycle in the US lasted from 1990 to 2007 when cement prices had outperformed inflation; Morgan Stanley bullishly argues that “an infrastructure package could catapult building materials into a super cycle similar to the 1950s. We are 10 years into the current construction cycle, exiting a recession, and potentially facing a government-underwritten cycle of another 10 years."
It remains to be seen whether this infrastructure rebuild will be the trigger for another commodity and shipping supercycle. In any case, September 2021 is expected to be the deadline towards an approval of a new infrastructure bill and the spending won’t start until a year later, thus the impact will likely show later in 2022. The extent of the impact will also depend on how China will react to the news of such package from the US, with this week’s watch on the China’s National People Congress and the release of the country’s 14th five year plan.
By Ilias M. Lalaounis,
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
The Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Wednesday, 13 January 21
COAL TO BE BIGGEST CONTRIBUTOR TO INDIA'S $5 TRILLION ECONOMY: AMIT SHAH - BUSINESS STANDARD
The Centre on Monday awarded the letter of allocation to successful bidders of coal mines under the commercial auction held during October-November ...
Monday, 11 January 21
MUTED COAL RECOVERY IN 2021 - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Coal demand is expected to rebound in 2021
Medium-term outlook is less favourable although demand declines are expected to be subtle ...
Sunday, 10 January 21
KOREAN GENCOS INVITED BIDS FOR TOTAL 880,000 TONS OF COAL FOR MARCH 2021 LOADING
COALspot.com: Korea South-East Power Co., Ltd. (KOEN), on behalf of EWP, KOSPO, KOSEP and KOWEPO issued an international tender for total 880 ...
Friday, 08 January 21
INDIA COULD COMPETE AGAINST CHINA IN SOLAR MODULE PRODUCTION WITH THE RIGHT GOVERNMENT SUPPORT - IEEFA
The focus should be on helping manufacturers become globally competitive
Although one of the top 10 solar module producers in the world, India ...
Thursday, 07 January 21
FITCH FORECASTS DOUBLING IN ASIAN WIND, SOLAR CAPACITY BY 2029, TOPPING 1,500GW
Despite some near-term delays due to the Covid-19 pandemic, solar power and offshore wind will drive steep growth in non-hydro renewables in Asia, ...
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- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Australian Coal Association
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Planning Commission, India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- The University of Queensland
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- PTC India Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- White Energy Company Limited
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
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