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Wednesday, 03 March 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Following the recent rally to multi year highs of metal-based commodities, amid an unprecedented global economic stimulus, discussions of an emerging commodity supercycle have gained traction recently.
Key stakeholders of our industry are debating whether this might be a beginning of a new shipping supercycle. An interesting development that could fuel further this view, is that of a potential infrastructure supercycle in the US.
A large part of the 2nd phase of the US fiscal stimulus scheme under the Biden administration, was planned to be invested in infrastructure. The chances of a large infrastructure bill have increased after the devasting winter storms two weeks ago, that resulted to billions dollar damages and reiterated the previous decade’s infrastructure underinvestment. As a candidate, Biden had proposed a $1.3 trillion investment towards infrastructure over the course of 10 years. However, with extended damages after the winter storms, the bill might end up much higher; with Goldman Sachs expecting it to reach $2 trillion or above. This will be the largest infrastructure stimulus after the New Deal and depending on the extent it materializes, it should create a material multiplier effect on demand for building materials. The targeted infrastructure, such as bridges and roads, points towards increased steel and cement demand, which will likely make these commodities the main beneficiaries over a 10 year cycle. USA’s cement production particularly is running close to max capacity utilization, which means that there will be a production shortfall if demand rises significantly. Cement production in the US came at 90 million tons in 2020, which is approx. 2.1% of the world production. Both demand for imports and cement production capacity will have to expand over the next years in order to cover domestic consumption. With the only sizeable cement/clinker producer being China (more than 50% of the global output), imports from the country and thus dry bulk ton-miles could increase materially.
The main shipping beneficiary will likely be mid-sized bulkers carrying minerals and steel, however the dominant vessel size in reality will be determined by the extent of the upward price pressure on the commodity and the need for cargo upsizing. Both steel prices (which have hit record high levels in the US recently) and cement/clinker prices, will race to the top under such stimulus multiplier and set the ceiling for international steel related commodities and thus freight higher. The last cement supercycle in the US lasted from 1990 to 2007 when cement prices had outperformed inflation; Morgan Stanley bullishly argues that “an infrastructure package could catapult building materials into a super cycle similar to the 1950s. We are 10 years into the current construction cycle, exiting a recession, and potentially facing a government-underwritten cycle of another 10 years."
It remains to be seen whether this infrastructure rebuild will be the trigger for another commodity and shipping supercycle. In any case, September 2021 is expected to be the deadline towards an approval of a new infrastructure bill and the spending won’t start until a year later, thus the impact will likely show later in 2022. The extent of the impact will also depend on how China will react to the news of such package from the US, with this week’s watch on the China’s National People Congress and the release of the country’s 14th five year plan.
By Ilias M. Lalaounis,
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
The Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Monday, 04 January 21
BLISS FOR SHIPOWNERS! DAMAGES MAY BE CLAIMED IN ADDITION TO DEMURRAGE FOR VOYAGE CHARTERPARTY DELAY - WFW
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
In a significant decision for the maritime sector, The Eternal Bliss[1], the English Commercial Court has resol ...
Sunday, 03 January 21
INDIA: COMMERCE MINISTRY LAUNCHES COAL IMPORT MONITORING SYSTEM - PTI
CIMS shall require importers to submit advance information in an online system for imports of items and obtain an automatic registration number by ...
Wednesday, 30 December 20
A LOOK BACK INTO 2020: THE HEADWINDS, THE TAILWINDS AND EVERYTHING IN BETWEEN - SIGNAL
There is no doubt that 2020 has been a turbulent year for commercial shipping. The coronavirus pandemic has shaken the global maritime transport. T ...
Tuesday, 29 December 20
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX UP 0.66 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 134.78 points Monday, up 0.66 percent week on week.
The index, released by China ...
Tuesday, 29 December 20
CORROSION-RESISTANT STEELS FOR CARGO OIL TANKS - DNV GL
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Crude oil is a complex mixture of substances at varying ratios and in most cases contains at least some salt water. ...
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- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- VISA Power Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
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