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Wednesday, 03 March 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Following the recent rally to multi year highs of metal-based commodities, amid an unprecedented global economic stimulus, discussions of an emerging commodity supercycle have gained traction recently.
Key stakeholders of our industry are debating whether this might be a beginning of a new shipping supercycle. An interesting development that could fuel further this view, is that of a potential infrastructure supercycle in the US.
A large part of the 2nd phase of the US fiscal stimulus scheme under the Biden administration, was planned to be invested in infrastructure. The chances of a large infrastructure bill have increased after the devasting winter storms two weeks ago, that resulted to billions dollar damages and reiterated the previous decade’s infrastructure underinvestment. As a candidate, Biden had proposed a $1.3 trillion investment towards infrastructure over the course of 10 years. However, with extended damages after the winter storms, the bill might end up much higher; with Goldman Sachs expecting it to reach $2 trillion or above. This will be the largest infrastructure stimulus after the New Deal and depending on the extent it materializes, it should create a material multiplier effect on demand for building materials. The targeted infrastructure, such as bridges and roads, points towards increased steel and cement demand, which will likely make these commodities the main beneficiaries over a 10 year cycle. USA’s cement production particularly is running close to max capacity utilization, which means that there will be a production shortfall if demand rises significantly. Cement production in the US came at 90 million tons in 2020, which is approx. 2.1% of the world production. Both demand for imports and cement production capacity will have to expand over the next years in order to cover domestic consumption. With the only sizeable cement/clinker producer being China (more than 50% of the global output), imports from the country and thus dry bulk ton-miles could increase materially.
The main shipping beneficiary will likely be mid-sized bulkers carrying minerals and steel, however the dominant vessel size in reality will be determined by the extent of the upward price pressure on the commodity and the need for cargo upsizing. Both steel prices (which have hit record high levels in the US recently) and cement/clinker prices, will race to the top under such stimulus multiplier and set the ceiling for international steel related commodities and thus freight higher. The last cement supercycle in the US lasted from 1990 to 2007 when cement prices had outperformed inflation; Morgan Stanley bullishly argues that “an infrastructure package could catapult building materials into a super cycle similar to the 1950s. We are 10 years into the current construction cycle, exiting a recession, and potentially facing a government-underwritten cycle of another 10 years."
It remains to be seen whether this infrastructure rebuild will be the trigger for another commodity and shipping supercycle. In any case, September 2021 is expected to be the deadline towards an approval of a new infrastructure bill and the spending won’t start until a year later, thus the impact will likely show later in 2022. The extent of the impact will also depend on how China will react to the news of such package from the US, with this week’s watch on the China’s National People Congress and the release of the country’s 14th five year plan.
By Ilias M. Lalaounis,
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
The Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Friday, 15 January 21
OVER US$50 BILLION IN GAS POWER PROJECTS AND LNG IMPORT FACILITIES AT RISK OF CANCELLATION IN BANGLADESH, PAKISTAN AND VIETNAM - IEEFA
Pakistan and Bangladesh have already cancelled tenders for LNG imports
Emerging markets such as Vietnam, Pakistan and Bangladesh tha ...
Friday, 15 January 21
VIETNAM'S EXTRAORDINARY ROOFTOP SOLAR SUCCESS DEALS ANOTHER BLOW TO THE REMAINING COAL PIPELINE - IEEFA
9.3 gigawatts peak of solar capacity, equal to 6 coal power plants, installed in less than a year
Vietnam’s solar power indust ...
Friday, 15 January 21
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE EDGES UP - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price rose slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge of ...
Thursday, 14 January 21
KOREA MIDLAND POWER INVITED BIDS FOR AUSTRALIAN COAL FOR THREE YEARS SUPPLY
COALspot.com: Korea Midland Power Co. Ltd, issued an International tender for total 1,560,000 MT of Min.5,700 kcal/kg NCV coal of Australian Origin ...
Wednesday, 13 January 21
CHINA THERMAL GENCO PROFITS FACE PRESSURE AMID POWER SHORTAGES - FITHCH WIRE
High coal and gas prices will put near-term pressure on margins for thermal power generators in China, says Fitch Ratings. However, the power short ...
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- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Planning Commission, India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
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