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Wednesday, 03 March 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Following the recent rally to multi year highs of metal-based commodities, amid an unprecedented global economic stimulus, discussions of an emerging commodity supercycle have gained traction recently.
Key stakeholders of our industry are debating whether this might be a beginning of a new shipping supercycle. An interesting development that could fuel further this view, is that of a potential infrastructure supercycle in the US.
A large part of the 2nd phase of the US fiscal stimulus scheme under the Biden administration, was planned to be invested in infrastructure. The chances of a large infrastructure bill have increased after the devasting winter storms two weeks ago, that resulted to billions dollar damages and reiterated the previous decade’s infrastructure underinvestment. As a candidate, Biden had proposed a $1.3 trillion investment towards infrastructure over the course of 10 years. However, with extended damages after the winter storms, the bill might end up much higher; with Goldman Sachs expecting it to reach $2 trillion or above. This will be the largest infrastructure stimulus after the New Deal and depending on the extent it materializes, it should create a material multiplier effect on demand for building materials. The targeted infrastructure, such as bridges and roads, points towards increased steel and cement demand, which will likely make these commodities the main beneficiaries over a 10 year cycle. USA’s cement production particularly is running close to max capacity utilization, which means that there will be a production shortfall if demand rises significantly. Cement production in the US came at 90 million tons in 2020, which is approx. 2.1% of the world production. Both demand for imports and cement production capacity will have to expand over the next years in order to cover domestic consumption. With the only sizeable cement/clinker producer being China (more than 50% of the global output), imports from the country and thus dry bulk ton-miles could increase materially.
The main shipping beneficiary will likely be mid-sized bulkers carrying minerals and steel, however the dominant vessel size in reality will be determined by the extent of the upward price pressure on the commodity and the need for cargo upsizing. Both steel prices (which have hit record high levels in the US recently) and cement/clinker prices, will race to the top under such stimulus multiplier and set the ceiling for international steel related commodities and thus freight higher. The last cement supercycle in the US lasted from 1990 to 2007 when cement prices had outperformed inflation; Morgan Stanley bullishly argues that “an infrastructure package could catapult building materials into a super cycle similar to the 1950s. We are 10 years into the current construction cycle, exiting a recession, and potentially facing a government-underwritten cycle of another 10 years."
It remains to be seen whether this infrastructure rebuild will be the trigger for another commodity and shipping supercycle. In any case, September 2021 is expected to be the deadline towards an approval of a new infrastructure bill and the spending won’t start until a year later, thus the impact will likely show later in 2022. The extent of the impact will also depend on how China will react to the news of such package from the US, with this week’s watch on the China’s National People Congress and the release of the country’s 14th five year plan.
By Ilias M. Lalaounis,
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Saturday, 27 February 21
FITCH RATINGS REVISES GLOBAL METALS AND MINING PRICE ASSUMPTIONS
Fitch Ratings has revised some of its metals and mining price assumptions as prices for many commodities will benefit in the short term from return ...
Saturday, 27 February 21
MITSUBISHI PULLS OUT OF VINH TAN 3 COAL PROJECT IN VIETNAM - NIKKEI ASIA
Japanese trading house Mitsubishi Corp. decided Thursday to withdraw from the Vinh Tan 3 coal-fired power plant project in Vietnam amid growing int ...
Thursday, 25 February 21
ARE WE ON THE CUSP OF ANOTHER MINING SUPER-CYCLE? - WOOD MACKENZIE
As the first wave of the coronavirus pandemic began to bite, many observers confidently predicted that the end was nigh for global economic activit ...
Thursday, 25 February 21
2020 PROVED TO BE A TRULY TERRIBLE YEAR FOR SEABORNE COAL TRADE - BANCHERO COSTA
Total loadings in the 12 months of 2020 were down -12.7% year-on-year to 1,130 million tonnes, according to vessels tracking data from Refinitiv, s ...
Wednesday, 24 February 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
With yields of up to 563%, the shares of Greek shipping companies listed on Wall Street are recorded. The Coronavirus pandemic has not significantl ...
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- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Minerals Council of Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- The University of Queensland
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
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