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Wednesday, 03 March 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Following the recent rally to multi year highs of metal-based commodities, amid an unprecedented global economic stimulus, discussions of an emerging commodity supercycle have gained traction recently.
Key stakeholders of our industry are debating whether this might be a beginning of a new shipping supercycle. An interesting development that could fuel further this view, is that of a potential infrastructure supercycle in the US.
A large part of the 2nd phase of the US fiscal stimulus scheme under the Biden administration, was planned to be invested in infrastructure. The chances of a large infrastructure bill have increased after the devasting winter storms two weeks ago, that resulted to billions dollar damages and reiterated the previous decade’s infrastructure underinvestment. As a candidate, Biden had proposed a $1.3 trillion investment towards infrastructure over the course of 10 years. However, with extended damages after the winter storms, the bill might end up much higher; with Goldman Sachs expecting it to reach $2 trillion or above. This will be the largest infrastructure stimulus after the New Deal and depending on the extent it materializes, it should create a material multiplier effect on demand for building materials. The targeted infrastructure, such as bridges and roads, points towards increased steel and cement demand, which will likely make these commodities the main beneficiaries over a 10 year cycle. USA’s cement production particularly is running close to max capacity utilization, which means that there will be a production shortfall if demand rises significantly. Cement production in the US came at 90 million tons in 2020, which is approx. 2.1% of the world production. Both demand for imports and cement production capacity will have to expand over the next years in order to cover domestic consumption. With the only sizeable cement/clinker producer being China (more than 50% of the global output), imports from the country and thus dry bulk ton-miles could increase materially.
The main shipping beneficiary will likely be mid-sized bulkers carrying minerals and steel, however the dominant vessel size in reality will be determined by the extent of the upward price pressure on the commodity and the need for cargo upsizing. Both steel prices (which have hit record high levels in the US recently) and cement/clinker prices, will race to the top under such stimulus multiplier and set the ceiling for international steel related commodities and thus freight higher. The last cement supercycle in the US lasted from 1990 to 2007 when cement prices had outperformed inflation; Morgan Stanley bullishly argues that “an infrastructure package could catapult building materials into a super cycle similar to the 1950s. We are 10 years into the current construction cycle, exiting a recession, and potentially facing a government-underwritten cycle of another 10 years."
It remains to be seen whether this infrastructure rebuild will be the trigger for another commodity and shipping supercycle. In any case, September 2021 is expected to be the deadline towards an approval of a new infrastructure bill and the spending won’t start until a year later, thus the impact will likely show later in 2022. The extent of the impact will also depend on how China will react to the news of such package from the US, with this week’s watch on the China’s National People Congress and the release of the country’s 14th five year plan.
By Ilias M. Lalaounis,
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 08 March 21
MARCH 2021 INDONESIA COAL PRICE REFERENCE SETTLES LOWER
COALspot.com: The Indonesia coal price reference for March 2021 settles at US$ 84.49 per ton FOB vessel.
The Indonesia coal pr ...
Saturday, 06 March 21
AUSTRALIAN COAL: SOME WEAKNESS COULD MATERIALIZE AFTER THE WINTER - ING
Newcastle coal prices remain well supported for now, however as we move out of the winter months we would expect prices to come under pressure. Mea ...
Saturday, 06 March 21
ASIA SEABORNE COAL PRICES START TO RETREAT, CHINA-AUSTRALIA DISPUTE LINGERS - REUTERS
There are signs that the price and demand surge for coal during the recent colder-than-expected winter across North Asia is starting to ease, even ...
Thursday, 04 March 21
HEAD OF JBIC SAYS THE JAPANESE BANK WILL NOT FUND NEW COAL PLANT DEVELOPMENT - NHK NEWS
The governor of the Japan Bank for International Cooperation has said that the government-owned financial institution will stop funding new coal-fi ...
Saturday, 27 February 21
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE EDGES DOWN - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price dropped slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge ...
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- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Planning Commission, India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
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