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Wednesday, 03 March 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Following the recent rally to multi year highs of metal-based commodities, amid an unprecedented global economic stimulus, discussions of an emerging commodity supercycle have gained traction recently.
Key stakeholders of our industry are debating whether this might be a beginning of a new shipping supercycle. An interesting development that could fuel further this view, is that of a potential infrastructure supercycle in the US.
A large part of the 2nd phase of the US fiscal stimulus scheme under the Biden administration, was planned to be invested in infrastructure. The chances of a large infrastructure bill have increased after the devasting winter storms two weeks ago, that resulted to billions dollar damages and reiterated the previous decade’s infrastructure underinvestment. As a candidate, Biden had proposed a $1.3 trillion investment towards infrastructure over the course of 10 years. However, with extended damages after the winter storms, the bill might end up much higher; with Goldman Sachs expecting it to reach $2 trillion or above. This will be the largest infrastructure stimulus after the New Deal and depending on the extent it materializes, it should create a material multiplier effect on demand for building materials. The targeted infrastructure, such as bridges and roads, points towards increased steel and cement demand, which will likely make these commodities the main beneficiaries over a 10 year cycle. USA’s cement production particularly is running close to max capacity utilization, which means that there will be a production shortfall if demand rises significantly. Cement production in the US came at 90 million tons in 2020, which is approx. 2.1% of the world production. Both demand for imports and cement production capacity will have to expand over the next years in order to cover domestic consumption. With the only sizeable cement/clinker producer being China (more than 50% of the global output), imports from the country and thus dry bulk ton-miles could increase materially.
The main shipping beneficiary will likely be mid-sized bulkers carrying minerals and steel, however the dominant vessel size in reality will be determined by the extent of the upward price pressure on the commodity and the need for cargo upsizing. Both steel prices (which have hit record high levels in the US recently) and cement/clinker prices, will race to the top under such stimulus multiplier and set the ceiling for international steel related commodities and thus freight higher. The last cement supercycle in the US lasted from 1990 to 2007 when cement prices had outperformed inflation; Morgan Stanley bullishly argues that “an infrastructure package could catapult building materials into a super cycle similar to the 1950s. We are 10 years into the current construction cycle, exiting a recession, and potentially facing a government-underwritten cycle of another 10 years."
It remains to be seen whether this infrastructure rebuild will be the trigger for another commodity and shipping supercycle. In any case, September 2021 is expected to be the deadline towards an approval of a new infrastructure bill and the spending won’t start until a year later, thus the impact will likely show later in 2022. The extent of the impact will also depend on how China will react to the news of such package from the US, with this week’s watch on the China’s National People Congress and the release of the country’s 14th five year plan.
By Ilias M. Lalaounis,
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
The Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Wednesday, 14 April 21
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX DOWN 1.10 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 138.05 points Monday, down 1.10 percent week on week.
The index, released by Chi ...
Wednesday, 14 April 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
After a series of months where the dry bulk sector was attracting most of the buying interest, tankers SnP activity spiked in the previous weeks. O ...
Tuesday, 13 April 21
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE IN APRIL UP AGAIN ON FIRM DEMAND
COALspot.com: The Indonesia coal price reference for April 2021 settles at US$ 86.68 per ton FOB vessel.
The Indonesia coal pr ...
Monday, 12 April 21
CHINA'S ECONOMIC RECOVERY PUSHES COAL MINES TO INCREASE YIELD - GLOBAL TIMES
China’s fast economic rebound from coronavirus has driven up electricity demand, leading to higher consumption of coal which is seeing rising ...
Monday, 12 April 21
GLOBAL COAL PRODUCTION EXPECTED TO RISE BY 3.5% IN 2021, SAYS GLOBALDATA
Global coal output is estimated to have declined by 2% in 2020 due to COVID-19-related lockdowns and restrictions, with significant reductions obse ...
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- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- The University of Queensland
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- White Energy Company Limited
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
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