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Wednesday, 03 March 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Following the recent rally to multi year highs of metal-based commodities, amid an unprecedented global economic stimulus, discussions of an emerging commodity supercycle have gained traction recently.
Key stakeholders of our industry are debating whether this might be a beginning of a new shipping supercycle. An interesting development that could fuel further this view, is that of a potential infrastructure supercycle in the US.
A large part of the 2nd phase of the US fiscal stimulus scheme under the Biden administration, was planned to be invested in infrastructure. The chances of a large infrastructure bill have increased after the devasting winter storms two weeks ago, that resulted to billions dollar damages and reiterated the previous decade’s infrastructure underinvestment. As a candidate, Biden had proposed a $1.3 trillion investment towards infrastructure over the course of 10 years. However, with extended damages after the winter storms, the bill might end up much higher; with Goldman Sachs expecting it to reach $2 trillion or above. This will be the largest infrastructure stimulus after the New Deal and depending on the extent it materializes, it should create a material multiplier effect on demand for building materials. The targeted infrastructure, such as bridges and roads, points towards increased steel and cement demand, which will likely make these commodities the main beneficiaries over a 10 year cycle. USA’s cement production particularly is running close to max capacity utilization, which means that there will be a production shortfall if demand rises significantly. Cement production in the US came at 90 million tons in 2020, which is approx. 2.1% of the world production. Both demand for imports and cement production capacity will have to expand over the next years in order to cover domestic consumption. With the only sizeable cement/clinker producer being China (more than 50% of the global output), imports from the country and thus dry bulk ton-miles could increase materially.
The main shipping beneficiary will likely be mid-sized bulkers carrying minerals and steel, however the dominant vessel size in reality will be determined by the extent of the upward price pressure on the commodity and the need for cargo upsizing. Both steel prices (which have hit record high levels in the US recently) and cement/clinker prices, will race to the top under such stimulus multiplier and set the ceiling for international steel related commodities and thus freight higher. The last cement supercycle in the US lasted from 1990 to 2007 when cement prices had outperformed inflation; Morgan Stanley bullishly argues that “an infrastructure package could catapult building materials into a super cycle similar to the 1950s. We are 10 years into the current construction cycle, exiting a recession, and potentially facing a government-underwritten cycle of another 10 years."
It remains to be seen whether this infrastructure rebuild will be the trigger for another commodity and shipping supercycle. In any case, September 2021 is expected to be the deadline towards an approval of a new infrastructure bill and the spending won’t start until a year later, thus the impact will likely show later in 2022. The extent of the impact will also depend on how China will react to the news of such package from the US, with this week’s watch on the China’s National People Congress and the release of the country’s 14th five year plan.
By Ilias M. Lalaounis,
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
The Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Sunday, 18 April 21
INDONESIA LIKELY TO WITNESS 119 OIL AND GAS PROJECTS STARTS ACROSS VALUE CHAIN BY 2025, SAYS GLOBALDATA
Indonesia is expected to witness 119 oil and gas projects commencing their operations across value chain during 2021-2025, accounting for 6% of the ...
Sunday, 18 April 21
WORLDSTEEL RAISES 2021 STEEL DEMAND GROWTH FORECAST TO 5.8% - WORLDSTEEL
The World Steel Association (worldsteel) today released its Short Range Outlook (SRO) for 2021 and 2022. worldsteel forecasts that steel demand wil ...
Sunday, 18 April 21
CHINA'S Q1 COAL OUTPUT RISES 16% ON STRONG DEMAND FOR WINTER HEATING - REUTERS
China’s coal output rose 16% in the first quarter from the same period last year, bolstered by strong demand for winter heating and robust in ...
Wednesday, 14 April 21
INDIA HAS A RECORD LEVEL OF STOCKPILED COAL DAMPENING NEED FOR NEW DOMESTIC MINES - IEEFA
Proposed coal mining expansions at odds with excess supply
India has stockpiled a record 132 million tonnes of coal – enough t ...
Wednesday, 14 April 21
BANGLADESH NEEDS A RENEWABLES FOCUS, NOT A SWITCH FROM 'COAL TO GAS' - IEEFA
Renewables are cheaper and more sustainable than gas imports, and can provide better energy security in developing nations
The emerg ...
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- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- PTC India Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Economic Council, Georgia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Australian Coal Association
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
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