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Wednesday, 03 March 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Following the recent rally to multi year highs of metal-based commodities, amid an unprecedented global economic stimulus, discussions of an emerging commodity supercycle have gained traction recently.
Key stakeholders of our industry are debating whether this might be a beginning of a new shipping supercycle. An interesting development that could fuel further this view, is that of a potential infrastructure supercycle in the US.
A large part of the 2nd phase of the US fiscal stimulus scheme under the Biden administration, was planned to be invested in infrastructure. The chances of a large infrastructure bill have increased after the devasting winter storms two weeks ago, that resulted to billions dollar damages and reiterated the previous decade’s infrastructure underinvestment. As a candidate, Biden had proposed a $1.3 trillion investment towards infrastructure over the course of 10 years. However, with extended damages after the winter storms, the bill might end up much higher; with Goldman Sachs expecting it to reach $2 trillion or above. This will be the largest infrastructure stimulus after the New Deal and depending on the extent it materializes, it should create a material multiplier effect on demand for building materials. The targeted infrastructure, such as bridges and roads, points towards increased steel and cement demand, which will likely make these commodities the main beneficiaries over a 10 year cycle. USA’s cement production particularly is running close to max capacity utilization, which means that there will be a production shortfall if demand rises significantly. Cement production in the US came at 90 million tons in 2020, which is approx. 2.1% of the world production. Both demand for imports and cement production capacity will have to expand over the next years in order to cover domestic consumption. With the only sizeable cement/clinker producer being China (more than 50% of the global output), imports from the country and thus dry bulk ton-miles could increase materially.
The main shipping beneficiary will likely be mid-sized bulkers carrying minerals and steel, however the dominant vessel size in reality will be determined by the extent of the upward price pressure on the commodity and the need for cargo upsizing. Both steel prices (which have hit record high levels in the US recently) and cement/clinker prices, will race to the top under such stimulus multiplier and set the ceiling for international steel related commodities and thus freight higher. The last cement supercycle in the US lasted from 1990 to 2007 when cement prices had outperformed inflation; Morgan Stanley bullishly argues that “an infrastructure package could catapult building materials into a super cycle similar to the 1950s. We are 10 years into the current construction cycle, exiting a recession, and potentially facing a government-underwritten cycle of another 10 years."
It remains to be seen whether this infrastructure rebuild will be the trigger for another commodity and shipping supercycle. In any case, September 2021 is expected to be the deadline towards an approval of a new infrastructure bill and the spending won’t start until a year later, thus the impact will likely show later in 2022. The extent of the impact will also depend on how China will react to the news of such package from the US, with this week’s watch on the China’s National People Congress and the release of the country’s 14th five year plan.
By Ilias M. Lalaounis,
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
The Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Friday, 30 April 21
HIGH-SULPHUR FUEL OIL SALES REBOUND AFTER PRE-IMO 2020 - BIMCO
HSFO sales are up 47.2% from Q1 2020, reaching 3.1m tonnes. This is however still less than a third of high-sulphur fuel sales in Q1 2019, before t ...
Wednesday, 28 April 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Despite the current challenges as a result of the global pandemic, 2021 is turning out to be a landmark year for the iron ore market with spot pric ...
Monday, 26 April 21
CHINA TO FURTHER CUT COAL USE IN 2021 - XINHUA
China aims to reduce the share of coal in its energy mix to less than 56% this year, according to a guideline released by the National Energy Admin ...
Wednesday, 21 April 21
COAL FINANCING COSTS HAVE SURGED IN PAST 10 YEARS - UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD - THE GUARDIAN
Coal financing costs have surged over the last decade as investors demand returns four times as high as the payoff required from renewable energy p ...
Tuesday, 20 April 21
US DOLLAR LIBOR TRANSITION IN ASSET FINANCE - WHERE ARE WE NOW? - WATSON FARLEY & WILLIAMS
Since our last article, there has been a raft of regulatory and market body announcements relating to the transition away from LIBOR and the follow ...
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- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Planning Commission, India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The University of Queensland
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Australian Coal Association
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
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