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Wednesday, 03 March 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Following the recent rally to multi year highs of metal-based commodities, amid an unprecedented global economic stimulus, discussions of an emerging commodity supercycle have gained traction recently.
Key stakeholders of our industry are debating whether this might be a beginning of a new shipping supercycle. An interesting development that could fuel further this view, is that of a potential infrastructure supercycle in the US.
A large part of the 2nd phase of the US fiscal stimulus scheme under the Biden administration, was planned to be invested in infrastructure. The chances of a large infrastructure bill have increased after the devasting winter storms two weeks ago, that resulted to billions dollar damages and reiterated the previous decade’s infrastructure underinvestment. As a candidate, Biden had proposed a $1.3 trillion investment towards infrastructure over the course of 10 years. However, with extended damages after the winter storms, the bill might end up much higher; with Goldman Sachs expecting it to reach $2 trillion or above. This will be the largest infrastructure stimulus after the New Deal and depending on the extent it materializes, it should create a material multiplier effect on demand for building materials. The targeted infrastructure, such as bridges and roads, points towards increased steel and cement demand, which will likely make these commodities the main beneficiaries over a 10 year cycle. USA’s cement production particularly is running close to max capacity utilization, which means that there will be a production shortfall if demand rises significantly. Cement production in the US came at 90 million tons in 2020, which is approx. 2.1% of the world production. Both demand for imports and cement production capacity will have to expand over the next years in order to cover domestic consumption. With the only sizeable cement/clinker producer being China (more than 50% of the global output), imports from the country and thus dry bulk ton-miles could increase materially.
The main shipping beneficiary will likely be mid-sized bulkers carrying minerals and steel, however the dominant vessel size in reality will be determined by the extent of the upward price pressure on the commodity and the need for cargo upsizing. Both steel prices (which have hit record high levels in the US recently) and cement/clinker prices, will race to the top under such stimulus multiplier and set the ceiling for international steel related commodities and thus freight higher. The last cement supercycle in the US lasted from 1990 to 2007 when cement prices had outperformed inflation; Morgan Stanley bullishly argues that “an infrastructure package could catapult building materials into a super cycle similar to the 1950s. We are 10 years into the current construction cycle, exiting a recession, and potentially facing a government-underwritten cycle of another 10 years."
It remains to be seen whether this infrastructure rebuild will be the trigger for another commodity and shipping supercycle. In any case, September 2021 is expected to be the deadline towards an approval of a new infrastructure bill and the spending won’t start until a year later, thus the impact will likely show later in 2022. The extent of the impact will also depend on how China will react to the news of such package from the US, with this week’s watch on the China’s National People Congress and the release of the country’s 14th five year plan.
By Ilias M. Lalaounis,
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 12 May 21
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION TO INCREASE BY 43 MMST IN 2021 TOTAL 582 MILLION SHORT TONS - EIA
U.S. energy Information Administration expects U.S. coal production to total 582 million short tons (MMst) in 2021, 43 MMst (8%) more than in 2020. ...
Wednesday, 12 May 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Tanker S&P is finally back!
For an extended period, Dry bulk & Wet market rates have been diverging, with the SnP deals on each sect ...
Monday, 10 May 21
PAKISTAN: COAL GASIFICATION AND LIQUEFACTION HARMFUL TO ECONOMY - IEEFA
There is no second life for coal
Pakistan’s intention to use coal for power production through gasification and liquefaction technologie ...
Sunday, 09 May 21
HERE'S WHY INVESTORS ARE POURING MONEY INTO COAL, DESPITE ITS BLEAK FUTURE - FORBES
Coal stocks have surged this year – along with the wider energy sector – but experts warn these are likely short-term gains for an indu ...
Sunday, 09 May 21
MAYBANK TO STOP COAL FINANCING - BERNAMA
Malayan Banking Bhd (Maybank) will stop financing new coal activities as part of its sustainable agenda.
Currently, coal financing m ...
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- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- The University of Queensland
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- PTC India Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- MS Steel International - UAE
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
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