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Wednesday, 03 March 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Following the recent rally to multi year highs of metal-based commodities, amid an unprecedented global economic stimulus, discussions of an emerging commodity supercycle have gained traction recently.
Key stakeholders of our industry are debating whether this might be a beginning of a new shipping supercycle. An interesting development that could fuel further this view, is that of a potential infrastructure supercycle in the US.
A large part of the 2nd phase of the US fiscal stimulus scheme under the Biden administration, was planned to be invested in infrastructure. The chances of a large infrastructure bill have increased after the devasting winter storms two weeks ago, that resulted to billions dollar damages and reiterated the previous decade’s infrastructure underinvestment. As a candidate, Biden had proposed a $1.3 trillion investment towards infrastructure over the course of 10 years. However, with extended damages after the winter storms, the bill might end up much higher; with Goldman Sachs expecting it to reach $2 trillion or above. This will be the largest infrastructure stimulus after the New Deal and depending on the extent it materializes, it should create a material multiplier effect on demand for building materials. The targeted infrastructure, such as bridges and roads, points towards increased steel and cement demand, which will likely make these commodities the main beneficiaries over a 10 year cycle. USA’s cement production particularly is running close to max capacity utilization, which means that there will be a production shortfall if demand rises significantly. Cement production in the US came at 90 million tons in 2020, which is approx. 2.1% of the world production. Both demand for imports and cement production capacity will have to expand over the next years in order to cover domestic consumption. With the only sizeable cement/clinker producer being China (more than 50% of the global output), imports from the country and thus dry bulk ton-miles could increase materially.
The main shipping beneficiary will likely be mid-sized bulkers carrying minerals and steel, however the dominant vessel size in reality will be determined by the extent of the upward price pressure on the commodity and the need for cargo upsizing. Both steel prices (which have hit record high levels in the US recently) and cement/clinker prices, will race to the top under such stimulus multiplier and set the ceiling for international steel related commodities and thus freight higher. The last cement supercycle in the US lasted from 1990 to 2007 when cement prices had outperformed inflation; Morgan Stanley bullishly argues that “an infrastructure package could catapult building materials into a super cycle similar to the 1950s. We are 10 years into the current construction cycle, exiting a recession, and potentially facing a government-underwritten cycle of another 10 years."
It remains to be seen whether this infrastructure rebuild will be the trigger for another commodity and shipping supercycle. In any case, September 2021 is expected to be the deadline towards an approval of a new infrastructure bill and the spending won’t start until a year later, thus the impact will likely show later in 2022. The extent of the impact will also depend on how China will react to the news of such package from the US, with this week’s watch on the China’s National People Congress and the release of the country’s 14th five year plan.
By Ilias M. Lalaounis,
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
The Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Thursday, 27 May 21
KOMIPO INVITED BIDS FOR 1.56 MILLION TONS OF BITUMINOUS COAL
COALspot.com: Korea Midland Power Co., Ltd (KOMIPO) has issued an international tender for total 1,560,000 MT of Bituminous Coal to be used a ...
Thursday, 27 May 21
CHINA POWER DEMAND EXCEEDS PRE-COVID-19 LEVELS; THERMAL OUTPUT STRONG - FITCH RATINGS
Rising Consumption: Total power consumption rose by 21.2% yoy to 1,921.9GWh in 1Q21 due to the fast recovery of China’s economy, after a drop ...
Thursday, 27 May 21
CHINA'S POWER DEMAND EXCEEDS PRE-PANDEMIC LEVELS; RENEWABLES TO DRIVE DEVELOPMENT - FITCH RATINGS
China's power consumption exceeded the pre-Covid-19 levels in 1Q21 due to the country's fast economic recovery, with strong output from the ...
Wednesday, 26 May 21
THE INDONESIA COAL PRICE REFERENCE FOR MAY 2021 SETTLES AT US$ 89.74 PER TON
COALspot.com: The Indonesia coal price reference for May 2021 settles at US$ 89.74 per ton FOB vessel.
The Indonesia coal pric ...
Wednesday, 26 May 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Last year crude tankers’ newbuilding contracting activity was devastated by the economic effects of the Covid-19 pandemic and the cloud of un ...
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- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- White Energy Company Limited
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
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