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Wednesday, 03 March 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Following the recent rally to multi year highs of metal-based commodities, amid an unprecedented global economic stimulus, discussions of an emerging commodity supercycle have gained traction recently.
Key stakeholders of our industry are debating whether this might be a beginning of a new shipping supercycle. An interesting development that could fuel further this view, is that of a potential infrastructure supercycle in the US.
A large part of the 2nd phase of the US fiscal stimulus scheme under the Biden administration, was planned to be invested in infrastructure. The chances of a large infrastructure bill have increased after the devasting winter storms two weeks ago, that resulted to billions dollar damages and reiterated the previous decade’s infrastructure underinvestment. As a candidate, Biden had proposed a $1.3 trillion investment towards infrastructure over the course of 10 years. However, with extended damages after the winter storms, the bill might end up much higher; with Goldman Sachs expecting it to reach $2 trillion or above. This will be the largest infrastructure stimulus after the New Deal and depending on the extent it materializes, it should create a material multiplier effect on demand for building materials. The targeted infrastructure, such as bridges and roads, points towards increased steel and cement demand, which will likely make these commodities the main beneficiaries over a 10 year cycle. USA’s cement production particularly is running close to max capacity utilization, which means that there will be a production shortfall if demand rises significantly. Cement production in the US came at 90 million tons in 2020, which is approx. 2.1% of the world production. Both demand for imports and cement production capacity will have to expand over the next years in order to cover domestic consumption. With the only sizeable cement/clinker producer being China (more than 50% of the global output), imports from the country and thus dry bulk ton-miles could increase materially.
The main shipping beneficiary will likely be mid-sized bulkers carrying minerals and steel, however the dominant vessel size in reality will be determined by the extent of the upward price pressure on the commodity and the need for cargo upsizing. Both steel prices (which have hit record high levels in the US recently) and cement/clinker prices, will race to the top under such stimulus multiplier and set the ceiling for international steel related commodities and thus freight higher. The last cement supercycle in the US lasted from 1990 to 2007 when cement prices had outperformed inflation; Morgan Stanley bullishly argues that “an infrastructure package could catapult building materials into a super cycle similar to the 1950s. We are 10 years into the current construction cycle, exiting a recession, and potentially facing a government-underwritten cycle of another 10 years."
It remains to be seen whether this infrastructure rebuild will be the trigger for another commodity and shipping supercycle. In any case, September 2021 is expected to be the deadline towards an approval of a new infrastructure bill and the spending won’t start until a year later, thus the impact will likely show later in 2022. The extent of the impact will also depend on how China will react to the news of such package from the US, with this week’s watch on the China’s National People Congress and the release of the country’s 14th five year plan.
By Ilias M. Lalaounis,
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 26 May 21
NEW POWER AND ENERGY MASTER PLAN MUST BE DESIGNED IN BANGLADESH'S BEST INTERESTS, NOT JAPAN'S - IEEFA
JICA must deliver a low or zero emissions plan as promised, not fund Matarbari 2 coal plant
Clear understandings from the Bangladesh ...
Tuesday, 25 May 21
KOREA SOUTHERN POWER INVITED BIDS FOR 870,000 MT OF MIN 5300 NCV COAL FOR 2021 TO 2023.
COALspot.com: Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO) has issued an International tender for total 870,000 MT of Min 5,300 kcal/kg NCV coal for Augu ...
Tuesday, 25 May 21
CHINA’S COAL OUTPUT RISES IN FIRST FOUR MONTHS - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output rose 11.1 percent year on year to 1.29 billion tonnes in the first four months of 2021, official data showed.
&nb ...
Tuesday, 25 May 21
MARINE SHIPPERS BULK UP: ANOTHER GAME OF CHICKEN IN THE WORKS? - THE KOREA TIMES
Global shipping companies have been placing orders for large ships, with many anticipating further increased competition within the next three year ...
Friday, 21 May 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The dry bulk market’s counter seasonal surge so far into the first half of the year -in a sort of 2010 manner - and Capesize’s recent r ...
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- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Australian Coal Association
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- The University of Queensland
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
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