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Wednesday, 03 March 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Following the recent rally to multi year highs of metal-based commodities, amid an unprecedented global economic stimulus, discussions of an emerging commodity supercycle have gained traction recently.
Key stakeholders of our industry are debating whether this might be a beginning of a new shipping supercycle. An interesting development that could fuel further this view, is that of a potential infrastructure supercycle in the US.
A large part of the 2nd phase of the US fiscal stimulus scheme under the Biden administration, was planned to be invested in infrastructure. The chances of a large infrastructure bill have increased after the devasting winter storms two weeks ago, that resulted to billions dollar damages and reiterated the previous decade’s infrastructure underinvestment. As a candidate, Biden had proposed a $1.3 trillion investment towards infrastructure over the course of 10 years. However, with extended damages after the winter storms, the bill might end up much higher; with Goldman Sachs expecting it to reach $2 trillion or above. This will be the largest infrastructure stimulus after the New Deal and depending on the extent it materializes, it should create a material multiplier effect on demand for building materials. The targeted infrastructure, such as bridges and roads, points towards increased steel and cement demand, which will likely make these commodities the main beneficiaries over a 10 year cycle. USA’s cement production particularly is running close to max capacity utilization, which means that there will be a production shortfall if demand rises significantly. Cement production in the US came at 90 million tons in 2020, which is approx. 2.1% of the world production. Both demand for imports and cement production capacity will have to expand over the next years in order to cover domestic consumption. With the only sizeable cement/clinker producer being China (more than 50% of the global output), imports from the country and thus dry bulk ton-miles could increase materially.
The main shipping beneficiary will likely be mid-sized bulkers carrying minerals and steel, however the dominant vessel size in reality will be determined by the extent of the upward price pressure on the commodity and the need for cargo upsizing. Both steel prices (which have hit record high levels in the US recently) and cement/clinker prices, will race to the top under such stimulus multiplier and set the ceiling for international steel related commodities and thus freight higher. The last cement supercycle in the US lasted from 1990 to 2007 when cement prices had outperformed inflation; Morgan Stanley bullishly argues that “an infrastructure package could catapult building materials into a super cycle similar to the 1950s. We are 10 years into the current construction cycle, exiting a recession, and potentially facing a government-underwritten cycle of another 10 years."
It remains to be seen whether this infrastructure rebuild will be the trigger for another commodity and shipping supercycle. In any case, September 2021 is expected to be the deadline towards an approval of a new infrastructure bill and the spending won’t start until a year later, thus the impact will likely show later in 2022. The extent of the impact will also depend on how China will react to the news of such package from the US, with this week’s watch on the China’s National People Congress and the release of the country’s 14th five year plan.
By Ilias M. Lalaounis,
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
The Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Wednesday, 07 April 21
KOMIPO ISSUED A TENDER FOR TOTAL 1,560,000 METRIC TONS OF BITUMINOUS COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued a tender for total 1,560,000 Metric Tons of Bituminous coal for i ...
Wednesday, 07 April 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Following the end of the catholic easter, during which the majority of shipping market participants were on holidays, it is interesting to note a f ...
Wednesday, 07 April 21
COAL USED TO GENERATE ELECTRIC POWER IN U.S. WILL INCREASE BY 13 PERCENT TO 495 MMST IN 2021 - EIA
EIA expects U.S. coal production to total 585 MMst in 2021, 46 MMst (9%) more than in 2020. In 2022, EIA expects coal production to grow by an addi ...
Wednesday, 31 March 21
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX UP 0.12 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 139.03 points Monday, up 0.12 percent week on week.
The index, released by China ...
Wednesday, 31 March 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Over the past week, the biggest story has been the blockage of the Suez Canal, as a result of the grounding of the container ship Ever Given. At th ...
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- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- White Energy Company Limited
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
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