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Wednesday, 03 March 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Following the recent rally to multi year highs of metal-based commodities, amid an unprecedented global economic stimulus, discussions of an emerging commodity supercycle have gained traction recently.
Key stakeholders of our industry are debating whether this might be a beginning of a new shipping supercycle. An interesting development that could fuel further this view, is that of a potential infrastructure supercycle in the US.
A large part of the 2nd phase of the US fiscal stimulus scheme under the Biden administration, was planned to be invested in infrastructure. The chances of a large infrastructure bill have increased after the devasting winter storms two weeks ago, that resulted to billions dollar damages and reiterated the previous decade’s infrastructure underinvestment. As a candidate, Biden had proposed a $1.3 trillion investment towards infrastructure over the course of 10 years. However, with extended damages after the winter storms, the bill might end up much higher; with Goldman Sachs expecting it to reach $2 trillion or above. This will be the largest infrastructure stimulus after the New Deal and depending on the extent it materializes, it should create a material multiplier effect on demand for building materials. The targeted infrastructure, such as bridges and roads, points towards increased steel and cement demand, which will likely make these commodities the main beneficiaries over a 10 year cycle. USA’s cement production particularly is running close to max capacity utilization, which means that there will be a production shortfall if demand rises significantly. Cement production in the US came at 90 million tons in 2020, which is approx. 2.1% of the world production. Both demand for imports and cement production capacity will have to expand over the next years in order to cover domestic consumption. With the only sizeable cement/clinker producer being China (more than 50% of the global output), imports from the country and thus dry bulk ton-miles could increase materially.
The main shipping beneficiary will likely be mid-sized bulkers carrying minerals and steel, however the dominant vessel size in reality will be determined by the extent of the upward price pressure on the commodity and the need for cargo upsizing. Both steel prices (which have hit record high levels in the US recently) and cement/clinker prices, will race to the top under such stimulus multiplier and set the ceiling for international steel related commodities and thus freight higher. The last cement supercycle in the US lasted from 1990 to 2007 when cement prices had outperformed inflation; Morgan Stanley bullishly argues that “an infrastructure package could catapult building materials into a super cycle similar to the 1950s. We are 10 years into the current construction cycle, exiting a recession, and potentially facing a government-underwritten cycle of another 10 years."
It remains to be seen whether this infrastructure rebuild will be the trigger for another commodity and shipping supercycle. In any case, September 2021 is expected to be the deadline towards an approval of a new infrastructure bill and the spending won’t start until a year later, thus the impact will likely show later in 2022. The extent of the impact will also depend on how China will react to the news of such package from the US, with this week’s watch on the China’s National People Congress and the release of the country’s 14th five year plan.
By Ilias M. Lalaounis,
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
The Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Wednesday, 07 April 21
KOMIPO ISSUED A TENDER FOR TOTAL 1,560,000 METRIC TONS OF BITUMINOUS COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued a tender for total 1,560,000 Metric Tons of Bituminous coal for i ...
Wednesday, 07 April 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Following the end of the catholic easter, during which the majority of shipping market participants were on holidays, it is interesting to note a f ...
Wednesday, 07 April 21
COAL USED TO GENERATE ELECTRIC POWER IN U.S. WILL INCREASE BY 13 PERCENT TO 495 MMST IN 2021 - EIA
EIA expects U.S. coal production to total 585 MMst in 2021, 46 MMst (9%) more than in 2020. In 2022, EIA expects coal production to grow by an addi ...
Wednesday, 31 March 21
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX UP 0.12 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 139.03 points Monday, up 0.12 percent week on week.
The index, released by China ...
Wednesday, 31 March 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Over the past week, the biggest story has been the blockage of the Suez Canal, as a result of the grounding of the container ship Ever Given. At th ...
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- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- PTC India Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Planning Commission, India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
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