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Wednesday, 03 March 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Following the recent rally to multi year highs of metal-based commodities, amid an unprecedented global economic stimulus, discussions of an emerging commodity supercycle have gained traction recently.
Key stakeholders of our industry are debating whether this might be a beginning of a new shipping supercycle. An interesting development that could fuel further this view, is that of a potential infrastructure supercycle in the US.
A large part of the 2nd phase of the US fiscal stimulus scheme under the Biden administration, was planned to be invested in infrastructure. The chances of a large infrastructure bill have increased after the devasting winter storms two weeks ago, that resulted to billions dollar damages and reiterated the previous decade’s infrastructure underinvestment. As a candidate, Biden had proposed a $1.3 trillion investment towards infrastructure over the course of 10 years. However, with extended damages after the winter storms, the bill might end up much higher; with Goldman Sachs expecting it to reach $2 trillion or above. This will be the largest infrastructure stimulus after the New Deal and depending on the extent it materializes, it should create a material multiplier effect on demand for building materials. The targeted infrastructure, such as bridges and roads, points towards increased steel and cement demand, which will likely make these commodities the main beneficiaries over a 10 year cycle. USA’s cement production particularly is running close to max capacity utilization, which means that there will be a production shortfall if demand rises significantly. Cement production in the US came at 90 million tons in 2020, which is approx. 2.1% of the world production. Both demand for imports and cement production capacity will have to expand over the next years in order to cover domestic consumption. With the only sizeable cement/clinker producer being China (more than 50% of the global output), imports from the country and thus dry bulk ton-miles could increase materially.
The main shipping beneficiary will likely be mid-sized bulkers carrying minerals and steel, however the dominant vessel size in reality will be determined by the extent of the upward price pressure on the commodity and the need for cargo upsizing. Both steel prices (which have hit record high levels in the US recently) and cement/clinker prices, will race to the top under such stimulus multiplier and set the ceiling for international steel related commodities and thus freight higher. The last cement supercycle in the US lasted from 1990 to 2007 when cement prices had outperformed inflation; Morgan Stanley bullishly argues that “an infrastructure package could catapult building materials into a super cycle similar to the 1950s. We are 10 years into the current construction cycle, exiting a recession, and potentially facing a government-underwritten cycle of another 10 years."
It remains to be seen whether this infrastructure rebuild will be the trigger for another commodity and shipping supercycle. In any case, September 2021 is expected to be the deadline towards an approval of a new infrastructure bill and the spending won’t start until a year later, thus the impact will likely show later in 2022. The extent of the impact will also depend on how China will react to the news of such package from the US, with this week’s watch on the China’s National People Congress and the release of the country’s 14th five year plan.
By Ilias M. Lalaounis,
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 29 March 21
MOODY'S: OUTLOOK FOR GLOBAL METALS AND MINING INDUSTRY TURNS POSITIVE ON HIGHER EBITDA IN PANDEMIC'S WAKE
- Demand for steel, iron ore and copper will rise, while aluminum, nickel and zinc will remain in surplus
- EBITDA is expected to ...
Thursday, 25 March 21
'OMNIBUS LAW' REGULATION ON INDONESIA’S ENERGY AND MINING SECTORS TO BOOST COAL PROCESSING BUT ALSO RAISES QUESTIONS - ABNR
February 2021 saw the issuance of a raft of new government regulations to give effect to the reformist Job Creation Law (colloquially known as the ...
Thursday, 25 March 21
PROPOSED SWITCH FROM COAL TO LNG THREATENS RENEWABLE ENERGY DEVELOPMENT IN ASIA - IEEFA
Renewables offer an ever cheaper, financially sustainable and energy secure alternative, better able to support developing nations
A ...
Thursday, 25 March 21
MAJOR INVESTMENT ADVISORS BLACKROCK AND MEKETA PROVIDE A FIDUCIARY PATH THROUGH THE ENERGY TRANSITION - IEEFA
BlackRock and Meketa say divestment from fossil fuels improves, not weakens, investment returns
Two major financial management firms ...
Thursday, 25 March 21
EUROPE PASSES MILESTONE WITH HALF OF COAL PLANTS CLOSED OR SET TO RETIRE BY 2030 - EURACTIV
Half of Europe’s 324 coal-fueled power plants have either closed or announced a retirement date before 2030, it emerged on Monday (22 March) ...
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- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
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- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
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- Australian Coal Association
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- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
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- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
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- CNBM International Corporation - China
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- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
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- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
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- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
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- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- The University of Queensland
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Minerals Council of Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Planning Commission, India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
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- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
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