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Saturday, 27 February 21
FITCH RATINGS REVISES GLOBAL METALS AND MINING PRICE ASSUMPTIONS
 Fitch Ratings has revised some of its metals and mining price assumptions as prices for many commodities will benefit in the short term from returning demand while the supply response remains slow and inventories are running low.
Our revision of all iron ore price assumptions is the most significant change and is driven by tight market supply, which we expect to continue in the next couple of years, and the absence of material new projects over a long period that could offset depleting mines. Vale has cut its production guidance for 2021, resulting in no supply response to growing demand, with all large-scale iron ore producers operating at almost full capacity. Inventories are running low, while we expect additional demand linked to US and European economic stimulus packages.
We have increased the short-term copper price assumption due to strategic purchases by the China State Reserve Bureau and supply risks in 2021, including renewals of labour contracts in Chile and Peru, which may result in strikes. Medium-term prices will be supported by balanced market and energy transition trends as copper is used in charging infrastructure, cabling, electric vehicles, wind generators and transformers.
We have increased our zinc price assumptions for 2021 and 2022 due to growing demand in China. Zinc production is price-sensitive and mine supply of concentrates will catch up relatively quickly.
We have raised our aluminium price assumptions for 2021 on a stronger demand recovery in China, particularly from the automotive and solar energy sectors, and re-stocking outside of China, particularly in Europe. However, we expect a production surplus outside of China to persist, causing prices to soften once pent-up demand is satisfied. Prices will recover longer-term due to incremental demand growth.
We have raised gold price assumptions for 2021 and 2022 on increased demand due to investment flows and central bank purchases. We believe that prices will moderate in the medium term to an equilibrium of USD1,200/oz.
The rise in the 2021 coking coal price assumption is due to robust demand from the steel sector, supported by recovering steel production in India, Japan, South Korea and Europe, and rebalanced flows of seaborne coal despite ongoing restrictions on Australian coal imports to China.
We expect coal demand to grow in the medium and long term, but final decisions on new projects were delayed in 2020. This means that capacity expansions that were due to take place in 2021-2023 will be delayed until 2024 or 2025. Supply will therefore remain tight, supporting medium- and long-term price assumptions.
The upward revision of the 2021 Qinhuangdao 5,500 kcal/kg coal price assumption reflects strong prices at the start of 2021, which we expect to reduce as demand normalises in the rest of the year. We expect the price to align with our medium-term price assumption in 2022 due to growing renewables and increased approvals for greenfield mines. We have lowered the long-term price reflecting China’s ambition to achieve carbon-neutrality by 2060, meaning that carbon emissions, including those from coal consumption, will peak by 2030.
The revision in the 2021 Newcastle 6,000 kcal/kg coal price reflects higher year-to-date prices. However, these will prompt operations at costlier mines to resume leading prices to moderate in line with our medium-term assumptions. The long-term price adjustment reflects a gradually normalising price gap with the Chinese benchmark.
We have raised nickel price assumptions for 2021 due to strong spot prices and our expectation of increasing demand in 2021 for stainless steel; a key consumer of nickel. We have increased our long-term assumption as we expect the increased use of nickel in batteries to lead to a market deficit from 2025.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Wednesday, 10 February 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
We have just entered February, Chinese New Year holidays are about to start and the SnP market for bulkers is so hot as every seller would dream of ...
Tuesday, 09 February 21
SWITCHING COAL PLANTS TO PLN'S BIOMASS COFIRING PLAN IS NO MAGIC BULLET - IEEFA
Implementation risks for Indonesia PLN's switch from coal to biomass cofiring
PLN’s biomass cofiring plan will require not ...
Friday, 05 February 21
THE INDONESIA COAL PRICE REFERENCE FOR FEBRUARY 2021 SETTLES AT US$ 87.79 PER TON FOB VESSEL
COALspot.com: The Indonesia coal price reference for February 2021 settles at US$ 87.79 per ton FOB vessel. The February reference price is the hig ...
Thursday, 04 February 21
WHY BANGLADESH SHOULDN’T COUNT ON A FOSSIL FUEL FUTURE - IEEFA
Around US$50 billion of LNG projects in Asia at risk of cancellation
Two astonishing figures have circulated in the Asian energy sector in the ...
Wednesday, 03 February 21
INDONESIA TO EXPORT 395 MILLION TONS OF COAL IN 2021 - ESDM
Data from the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources shows that, Indonesia is planning to produce 550 million Ton of coal in 2021 and as of t ...
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- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- The University of Queensland
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Australian Coal Association
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- White Energy Company Limited
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
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