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Saturday, 27 February 21
FITCH RATINGS REVISES GLOBAL METALS AND MINING PRICE ASSUMPTIONS
 Fitch Ratings has revised some of its metals and mining price assumptions as prices for many commodities will benefit in the short term from returning demand while the supply response remains slow and inventories are running low.
Our revision of all iron ore price assumptions is the most significant change and is driven by tight market supply, which we expect to continue in the next couple of years, and the absence of material new projects over a long period that could offset depleting mines. Vale has cut its production guidance for 2021, resulting in no supply response to growing demand, with all large-scale iron ore producers operating at almost full capacity. Inventories are running low, while we expect additional demand linked to US and European economic stimulus packages.
We have increased the short-term copper price assumption due to strategic purchases by the China State Reserve Bureau and supply risks in 2021, including renewals of labour contracts in Chile and Peru, which may result in strikes. Medium-term prices will be supported by balanced market and energy transition trends as copper is used in charging infrastructure, cabling, electric vehicles, wind generators and transformers.
We have increased our zinc price assumptions for 2021 and 2022 due to growing demand in China. Zinc production is price-sensitive and mine supply of concentrates will catch up relatively quickly.
We have raised our aluminium price assumptions for 2021 on a stronger demand recovery in China, particularly from the automotive and solar energy sectors, and re-stocking outside of China, particularly in Europe. However, we expect a production surplus outside of China to persist, causing prices to soften once pent-up demand is satisfied. Prices will recover longer-term due to incremental demand growth.
We have raised gold price assumptions for 2021 and 2022 on increased demand due to investment flows and central bank purchases. We believe that prices will moderate in the medium term to an equilibrium of USD1,200/oz.
The rise in the 2021 coking coal price assumption is due to robust demand from the steel sector, supported by recovering steel production in India, Japan, South Korea and Europe, and rebalanced flows of seaborne coal despite ongoing restrictions on Australian coal imports to China.
We expect coal demand to grow in the medium and long term, but final decisions on new projects were delayed in 2020. This means that capacity expansions that were due to take place in 2021-2023 will be delayed until 2024 or 2025. Supply will therefore remain tight, supporting medium- and long-term price assumptions.
The upward revision of the 2021 Qinhuangdao 5,500 kcal/kg coal price assumption reflects strong prices at the start of 2021, which we expect to reduce as demand normalises in the rest of the year. We expect the price to align with our medium-term price assumption in 2022 due to growing renewables and increased approvals for greenfield mines. We have lowered the long-term price reflecting China’s ambition to achieve carbon-neutrality by 2060, meaning that carbon emissions, including those from coal consumption, will peak by 2030.
The revision in the 2021 Newcastle 6,000 kcal/kg coal price reflects higher year-to-date prices. However, these will prompt operations at costlier mines to resume leading prices to moderate in line with our medium-term assumptions. The long-term price adjustment reflects a gradually normalising price gap with the Chinese benchmark.
We have raised nickel price assumptions for 2021 due to strong spot prices and our expectation of increasing demand in 2021 for stainless steel; a key consumer of nickel. We have increased our long-term assumption as we expect the increased use of nickel in batteries to lead to a market deficit from 2025.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Sunday, 21 February 21
ANZ DIVESTING FROM THE WORLD’S LARGEST COAL EXPORT PORT IS 'PRAGMATISM' - IEEFA
The biggest buyers of Australian thermal coal have committed to net-zero emissions
ANZ, Australia’s third largest bank, has decided to s ...
Sunday, 21 February 21
EDITORIAL: TIME FOR BANGLADESH TO FOCUS ON RENEWABLE ENERGY, NOT COAL - DHAKA TRIBUNE
Shifting away from coal is not only desirable, but absolutely necessary in these times.
In spite of being detrimental to environment ...
Wednesday, 17 February 21
STRANDED ASSETS A LONG-TERM RISK FOR MAJOR FOSSIL FUEL EXPORTERS - FITCH RATINGS
Fossil exporters face a loss of GDP, government revenue and export receipts from the transition to a lower-carbon economy over the coming decades. ...
Friday, 12 February 21
U.S: WIND SURPASSED COAL AS NO. 1 FUEL SOURCE IN 2020 FOR SOUTHWEST POWER POOL - IEEFA
Wind energy growth due to geography, design factors, and new installations
Wind surpassed coal as the primary power generation sourc ...
Wednesday, 10 February 21
FY21 COAL DEMAND MAY BE LOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED DUE TO COVID-19: PRALHAD JOSHI - PTI
Coal demand in the current fiscal may be lower than the initial estimate of 1,085 million tonnes (MT) due to the impact of COVID-19, Parliament was ...
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- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- White Energy Company Limited
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- The University of Queensland
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
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