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Saturday, 27 February 21
FITCH RATINGS REVISES GLOBAL METALS AND MINING PRICE ASSUMPTIONS
 Fitch Ratings has revised some of its metals and mining price assumptions as prices for many commodities will benefit in the short term from returning demand while the supply response remains slow and inventories are running low.
Our revision of all iron ore price assumptions is the most significant change and is driven by tight market supply, which we expect to continue in the next couple of years, and the absence of material new projects over a long period that could offset depleting mines. Vale has cut its production guidance for 2021, resulting in no supply response to growing demand, with all large-scale iron ore producers operating at almost full capacity. Inventories are running low, while we expect additional demand linked to US and European economic stimulus packages.
We have increased the short-term copper price assumption due to strategic purchases by the China State Reserve Bureau and supply risks in 2021, including renewals of labour contracts in Chile and Peru, which may result in strikes. Medium-term prices will be supported by balanced market and energy transition trends as copper is used in charging infrastructure, cabling, electric vehicles, wind generators and transformers.
We have increased our zinc price assumptions for 2021 and 2022 due to growing demand in China. Zinc production is price-sensitive and mine supply of concentrates will catch up relatively quickly.
We have raised our aluminium price assumptions for 2021 on a stronger demand recovery in China, particularly from the automotive and solar energy sectors, and re-stocking outside of China, particularly in Europe. However, we expect a production surplus outside of China to persist, causing prices to soften once pent-up demand is satisfied. Prices will recover longer-term due to incremental demand growth.
We have raised gold price assumptions for 2021 and 2022 on increased demand due to investment flows and central bank purchases. We believe that prices will moderate in the medium term to an equilibrium of USD1,200/oz.
The rise in the 2021 coking coal price assumption is due to robust demand from the steel sector, supported by recovering steel production in India, Japan, South Korea and Europe, and rebalanced flows of seaborne coal despite ongoing restrictions on Australian coal imports to China.
We expect coal demand to grow in the medium and long term, but final decisions on new projects were delayed in 2020. This means that capacity expansions that were due to take place in 2021-2023 will be delayed until 2024 or 2025. Supply will therefore remain tight, supporting medium- and long-term price assumptions.
The upward revision of the 2021 Qinhuangdao 5,500 kcal/kg coal price assumption reflects strong prices at the start of 2021, which we expect to reduce as demand normalises in the rest of the year. We expect the price to align with our medium-term price assumption in 2022 due to growing renewables and increased approvals for greenfield mines. We have lowered the long-term price reflecting China’s ambition to achieve carbon-neutrality by 2060, meaning that carbon emissions, including those from coal consumption, will peak by 2030.
The revision in the 2021 Newcastle 6,000 kcal/kg coal price reflects higher year-to-date prices. However, these will prompt operations at costlier mines to resume leading prices to moderate in line with our medium-term assumptions. The long-term price adjustment reflects a gradually normalising price gap with the Chinese benchmark.
We have raised nickel price assumptions for 2021 due to strong spot prices and our expectation of increasing demand in 2021 for stainless steel; a key consumer of nickel. We have increased our long-term assumption as we expect the increased use of nickel in batteries to lead to a market deficit from 2025.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Monday, 08 March 21
MARCH 2021 INDONESIA COAL PRICE REFERENCE SETTLES LOWER
COALspot.com: The Indonesia coal price reference for March 2021 settles at US$ 84.49 per ton FOB vessel.
The Indonesia coal pr ...
Saturday, 06 March 21
AUSTRALIAN COAL: SOME WEAKNESS COULD MATERIALIZE AFTER THE WINTER - ING
Newcastle coal prices remain well supported for now, however as we move out of the winter months we would expect prices to come under pressure. Mea ...
Saturday, 06 March 21
ASIA SEABORNE COAL PRICES START TO RETREAT, CHINA-AUSTRALIA DISPUTE LINGERS - REUTERS
There are signs that the price and demand surge for coal during the recent colder-than-expected winter across North Asia is starting to ease, even ...
Thursday, 04 March 21
HEAD OF JBIC SAYS THE JAPANESE BANK WILL NOT FUND NEW COAL PLANT DEVELOPMENT - NHK NEWS
The governor of the Japan Bank for International Cooperation has said that the government-owned financial institution will stop funding new coal-fi ...
Wednesday, 03 March 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Following the recent rally to multi year highs of metal-based commodities, amid an unprecedented global economic stimulus, discussions of an emergi ...
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- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Planning Commission, India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
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