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Saturday, 27 February 21
FITCH RATINGS REVISES GLOBAL METALS AND MINING PRICE ASSUMPTIONS
 Fitch Ratings has revised some of its metals and mining price assumptions as prices for many commodities will benefit in the short term from returning demand while the supply response remains slow and inventories are running low.
Our revision of all iron ore price assumptions is the most significant change and is driven by tight market supply, which we expect to continue in the next couple of years, and the absence of material new projects over a long period that could offset depleting mines. Vale has cut its production guidance for 2021, resulting in no supply response to growing demand, with all large-scale iron ore producers operating at almost full capacity. Inventories are running low, while we expect additional demand linked to US and European economic stimulus packages.
We have increased the short-term copper price assumption due to strategic purchases by the China State Reserve Bureau and supply risks in 2021, including renewals of labour contracts in Chile and Peru, which may result in strikes. Medium-term prices will be supported by balanced market and energy transition trends as copper is used in charging infrastructure, cabling, electric vehicles, wind generators and transformers.
We have increased our zinc price assumptions for 2021 and 2022 due to growing demand in China. Zinc production is price-sensitive and mine supply of concentrates will catch up relatively quickly.
We have raised our aluminium price assumptions for 2021 on a stronger demand recovery in China, particularly from the automotive and solar energy sectors, and re-stocking outside of China, particularly in Europe. However, we expect a production surplus outside of China to persist, causing prices to soften once pent-up demand is satisfied. Prices will recover longer-term due to incremental demand growth.
We have raised gold price assumptions for 2021 and 2022 on increased demand due to investment flows and central bank purchases. We believe that prices will moderate in the medium term to an equilibrium of USD1,200/oz.
The rise in the 2021 coking coal price assumption is due to robust demand from the steel sector, supported by recovering steel production in India, Japan, South Korea and Europe, and rebalanced flows of seaborne coal despite ongoing restrictions on Australian coal imports to China.
We expect coal demand to grow in the medium and long term, but final decisions on new projects were delayed in 2020. This means that capacity expansions that were due to take place in 2021-2023 will be delayed until 2024 or 2025. Supply will therefore remain tight, supporting medium- and long-term price assumptions.
The upward revision of the 2021 Qinhuangdao 5,500 kcal/kg coal price assumption reflects strong prices at the start of 2021, which we expect to reduce as demand normalises in the rest of the year. We expect the price to align with our medium-term price assumption in 2022 due to growing renewables and increased approvals for greenfield mines. We have lowered the long-term price reflecting China’s ambition to achieve carbon-neutrality by 2060, meaning that carbon emissions, including those from coal consumption, will peak by 2030.
The revision in the 2021 Newcastle 6,000 kcal/kg coal price reflects higher year-to-date prices. However, these will prompt operations at costlier mines to resume leading prices to moderate in line with our medium-term assumptions. The long-term price adjustment reflects a gradually normalising price gap with the Chinese benchmark.
We have raised nickel price assumptions for 2021 due to strong spot prices and our expectation of increasing demand in 2021 for stainless steel; a key consumer of nickel. We have increased our long-term assumption as we expect the increased use of nickel in batteries to lead to a market deficit from 2025.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Saturday, 27 February 21
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE EDGES DOWN - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price dropped slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge ...
Saturday, 27 February 21
MITSUBISHI PULLS OUT OF VINH TAN 3 COAL PROJECT IN VIETNAM - NIKKEI ASIA
Japanese trading house Mitsubishi Corp. decided Thursday to withdraw from the Vinh Tan 3 coal-fired power plant project in Vietnam amid growing int ...
Thursday, 25 February 21
ARE WE ON THE CUSP OF ANOTHER MINING SUPER-CYCLE? - WOOD MACKENZIE
As the first wave of the coronavirus pandemic began to bite, many observers confidently predicted that the end was nigh for global economic activit ...
Thursday, 25 February 21
2020 PROVED TO BE A TRULY TERRIBLE YEAR FOR SEABORNE COAL TRADE - BANCHERO COSTA
Total loadings in the 12 months of 2020 were down -12.7% year-on-year to 1,130 million tonnes, according to vessels tracking data from Refinitiv, s ...
Wednesday, 24 February 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
With yields of up to 563%, the shares of Greek shipping companies listed on Wall Street are recorded. The Coronavirus pandemic has not significantl ...
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- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- PTC India Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- The University of Queensland
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Planning Commission, India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
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