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Saturday, 27 February 21
FITCH RATINGS REVISES GLOBAL METALS AND MINING PRICE ASSUMPTIONS
 Fitch Ratings has revised some of its metals and mining price assumptions as prices for many commodities will benefit in the short term from returning demand while the supply response remains slow and inventories are running low.
Our revision of all iron ore price assumptions is the most significant change and is driven by tight market supply, which we expect to continue in the next couple of years, and the absence of material new projects over a long period that could offset depleting mines. Vale has cut its production guidance for 2021, resulting in no supply response to growing demand, with all large-scale iron ore producers operating at almost full capacity. Inventories are running low, while we expect additional demand linked to US and European economic stimulus packages.
We have increased the short-term copper price assumption due to strategic purchases by the China State Reserve Bureau and supply risks in 2021, including renewals of labour contracts in Chile and Peru, which may result in strikes. Medium-term prices will be supported by balanced market and energy transition trends as copper is used in charging infrastructure, cabling, electric vehicles, wind generators and transformers.
We have increased our zinc price assumptions for 2021 and 2022 due to growing demand in China. Zinc production is price-sensitive and mine supply of concentrates will catch up relatively quickly.
We have raised our aluminium price assumptions for 2021 on a stronger demand recovery in China, particularly from the automotive and solar energy sectors, and re-stocking outside of China, particularly in Europe. However, we expect a production surplus outside of China to persist, causing prices to soften once pent-up demand is satisfied. Prices will recover longer-term due to incremental demand growth.
We have raised gold price assumptions for 2021 and 2022 on increased demand due to investment flows and central bank purchases. We believe that prices will moderate in the medium term to an equilibrium of USD1,200/oz.
The rise in the 2021 coking coal price assumption is due to robust demand from the steel sector, supported by recovering steel production in India, Japan, South Korea and Europe, and rebalanced flows of seaborne coal despite ongoing restrictions on Australian coal imports to China.
We expect coal demand to grow in the medium and long term, but final decisions on new projects were delayed in 2020. This means that capacity expansions that were due to take place in 2021-2023 will be delayed until 2024 or 2025. Supply will therefore remain tight, supporting medium- and long-term price assumptions.
The upward revision of the 2021 Qinhuangdao 5,500 kcal/kg coal price assumption reflects strong prices at the start of 2021, which we expect to reduce as demand normalises in the rest of the year. We expect the price to align with our medium-term price assumption in 2022 due to growing renewables and increased approvals for greenfield mines. We have lowered the long-term price reflecting China’s ambition to achieve carbon-neutrality by 2060, meaning that carbon emissions, including those from coal consumption, will peak by 2030.
The revision in the 2021 Newcastle 6,000 kcal/kg coal price reflects higher year-to-date prices. However, these will prompt operations at costlier mines to resume leading prices to moderate in line with our medium-term assumptions. The long-term price adjustment reflects a gradually normalising price gap with the Chinese benchmark.
We have raised nickel price assumptions for 2021 due to strong spot prices and our expectation of increasing demand in 2021 for stainless steel; a key consumer of nickel. We have increased our long-term assumption as we expect the increased use of nickel in batteries to lead to a market deficit from 2025.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Friday, 12 March 21
INDIA SHOULD FOCUS ON REDUCING COAL POWER GENERATION INSTEAD OF CAPACITY - IEEFA
Nearly half of existing coal power in India is more expensive than new renewable power
To get to its ambitious climate targets, Indi ...
Friday, 12 March 21
BATTERIES ARE REPLACING COAL NOT GAS - IEEFA
No amount of government subsidies can halt gas’s decline
Batteries are replacing coal not gas.
Today the early ...
Friday, 12 March 21
RENEWABLES SHOULD BE FOCUS OF VIETNAM’S DRAFT PDP8, NOT COAL AND GAS - IEEFA
Evidence was clear to inform the next stage of Vietnam’s power development
Vietnam’s recently published draft power deve ...
Thursday, 11 March 21
U.S. TO PRODUCE 581 MMST IN 2021, UP 8% FROM 2020 - EIA
EIA expects U.S. coal production to total 581 MMst in 2021, 42 MMst (8%) more than in 2020. In 2022, EIA expects coal production to rise by a furth ...
Thursday, 11 March 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Assessing the ship repair sector during the first months of 2021, we have come across a new era in which Owners chose the shipyards to repair their ...
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- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Australian Coal Association
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Minerals Council of Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
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