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Saturday, 27 February 21
FITCH RATINGS REVISES GLOBAL METALS AND MINING PRICE ASSUMPTIONS
 Fitch Ratings has revised some of its metals and mining price assumptions as prices for many commodities will benefit in the short term from returning demand while the supply response remains slow and inventories are running low.
Our revision of all iron ore price assumptions is the most significant change and is driven by tight market supply, which we expect to continue in the next couple of years, and the absence of material new projects over a long period that could offset depleting mines. Vale has cut its production guidance for 2021, resulting in no supply response to growing demand, with all large-scale iron ore producers operating at almost full capacity. Inventories are running low, while we expect additional demand linked to US and European economic stimulus packages.
We have increased the short-term copper price assumption due to strategic purchases by the China State Reserve Bureau and supply risks in 2021, including renewals of labour contracts in Chile and Peru, which may result in strikes. Medium-term prices will be supported by balanced market and energy transition trends as copper is used in charging infrastructure, cabling, electric vehicles, wind generators and transformers.
We have increased our zinc price assumptions for 2021 and 2022 due to growing demand in China. Zinc production is price-sensitive and mine supply of concentrates will catch up relatively quickly.
We have raised our aluminium price assumptions for 2021 on a stronger demand recovery in China, particularly from the automotive and solar energy sectors, and re-stocking outside of China, particularly in Europe. However, we expect a production surplus outside of China to persist, causing prices to soften once pent-up demand is satisfied. Prices will recover longer-term due to incremental demand growth.
We have raised gold price assumptions for 2021 and 2022 on increased demand due to investment flows and central bank purchases. We believe that prices will moderate in the medium term to an equilibrium of USD1,200/oz.
The rise in the 2021 coking coal price assumption is due to robust demand from the steel sector, supported by recovering steel production in India, Japan, South Korea and Europe, and rebalanced flows of seaborne coal despite ongoing restrictions on Australian coal imports to China.
We expect coal demand to grow in the medium and long term, but final decisions on new projects were delayed in 2020. This means that capacity expansions that were due to take place in 2021-2023 will be delayed until 2024 or 2025. Supply will therefore remain tight, supporting medium- and long-term price assumptions.
The upward revision of the 2021 Qinhuangdao 5,500 kcal/kg coal price assumption reflects strong prices at the start of 2021, which we expect to reduce as demand normalises in the rest of the year. We expect the price to align with our medium-term price assumption in 2022 due to growing renewables and increased approvals for greenfield mines. We have lowered the long-term price reflecting China’s ambition to achieve carbon-neutrality by 2060, meaning that carbon emissions, including those from coal consumption, will peak by 2030.
The revision in the 2021 Newcastle 6,000 kcal/kg coal price reflects higher year-to-date prices. However, these will prompt operations at costlier mines to resume leading prices to moderate in line with our medium-term assumptions. The long-term price adjustment reflects a gradually normalising price gap with the Chinese benchmark.
We have raised nickel price assumptions for 2021 due to strong spot prices and our expectation of increasing demand in 2021 for stainless steel; a key consumer of nickel. We have increased our long-term assumption as we expect the increased use of nickel in batteries to lead to a market deficit from 2025.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Wednesday, 24 March 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Since the start of the pandemic, the shipping industry has efficiently responded to ensure the continuity of operations and hence the security of s ...
Tuesday, 23 March 21
LOWER WHOLESALE PRICES PUT PRESSURE ON AUSTRALIAN ENERGY RETAILERS - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings expects the low wholesale energy prices in the Australian National Energy Market to persist through to 2022, which will affect electr ...
Tuesday, 23 March 21
SCRUBBER-FITTED SHIPS NEARLY DOUBLE AS FUEL SPREAD SETTLES AT $118 PER MT - PETER SAND
As the lion’s share of the world fleet replaced high-sulphur fuel oil (HSFO) with low-sulphur fuel oil (LFSO) as a mean of propulsion to be c ...
Tuesday, 23 March 21
CHINA'S COAL OUTPUT EDGES UP IN FIRST TWO MONTHS - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output rose 25 percent year on year to 620 million tonnes in the first two months of 2021, official data showed.
...
Wednesday, 17 March 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Shipping market players are familiar with the inverse correlation between the freight market and demolition activity i.e. when the market picks up ...
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- ASAPP Information Group - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- The University of Queensland
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
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