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Saturday, 27 February 21
FITCH RATINGS REVISES GLOBAL METALS AND MINING PRICE ASSUMPTIONS
 Fitch Ratings has revised some of its metals and mining price assumptions as prices for many commodities will benefit in the short term from returning demand while the supply response remains slow and inventories are running low.
Our revision of all iron ore price assumptions is the most significant change and is driven by tight market supply, which we expect to continue in the next couple of years, and the absence of material new projects over a long period that could offset depleting mines. Vale has cut its production guidance for 2021, resulting in no supply response to growing demand, with all large-scale iron ore producers operating at almost full capacity. Inventories are running low, while we expect additional demand linked to US and European economic stimulus packages.
We have increased the short-term copper price assumption due to strategic purchases by the China State Reserve Bureau and supply risks in 2021, including renewals of labour contracts in Chile and Peru, which may result in strikes. Medium-term prices will be supported by balanced market and energy transition trends as copper is used in charging infrastructure, cabling, electric vehicles, wind generators and transformers.
We have increased our zinc price assumptions for 2021 and 2022 due to growing demand in China. Zinc production is price-sensitive and mine supply of concentrates will catch up relatively quickly.
We have raised our aluminium price assumptions for 2021 on a stronger demand recovery in China, particularly from the automotive and solar energy sectors, and re-stocking outside of China, particularly in Europe. However, we expect a production surplus outside of China to persist, causing prices to soften once pent-up demand is satisfied. Prices will recover longer-term due to incremental demand growth.
We have raised gold price assumptions for 2021 and 2022 on increased demand due to investment flows and central bank purchases. We believe that prices will moderate in the medium term to an equilibrium of USD1,200/oz.
The rise in the 2021 coking coal price assumption is due to robust demand from the steel sector, supported by recovering steel production in India, Japan, South Korea and Europe, and rebalanced flows of seaborne coal despite ongoing restrictions on Australian coal imports to China.
We expect coal demand to grow in the medium and long term, but final decisions on new projects were delayed in 2020. This means that capacity expansions that were due to take place in 2021-2023 will be delayed until 2024 or 2025. Supply will therefore remain tight, supporting medium- and long-term price assumptions.
The upward revision of the 2021 Qinhuangdao 5,500 kcal/kg coal price assumption reflects strong prices at the start of 2021, which we expect to reduce as demand normalises in the rest of the year. We expect the price to align with our medium-term price assumption in 2022 due to growing renewables and increased approvals for greenfield mines. We have lowered the long-term price reflecting China’s ambition to achieve carbon-neutrality by 2060, meaning that carbon emissions, including those from coal consumption, will peak by 2030.
The revision in the 2021 Newcastle 6,000 kcal/kg coal price reflects higher year-to-date prices. However, these will prompt operations at costlier mines to resume leading prices to moderate in line with our medium-term assumptions. The long-term price adjustment reflects a gradually normalising price gap with the Chinese benchmark.
We have raised nickel price assumptions for 2021 due to strong spot prices and our expectation of increasing demand in 2021 for stainless steel; a key consumer of nickel. We have increased our long-term assumption as we expect the increased use of nickel in batteries to lead to a market deficit from 2025.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Monday, 29 March 21
MOODY'S: OUTLOOK FOR GLOBAL METALS AND MINING INDUSTRY TURNS POSITIVE ON HIGHER EBITDA IN PANDEMIC'S WAKE
- Demand for steel, iron ore and copper will rise, while aluminum, nickel and zinc will remain in surplus
- EBITDA is expected to ...
Thursday, 25 March 21
'OMNIBUS LAW' REGULATION ON INDONESIA’S ENERGY AND MINING SECTORS TO BOOST COAL PROCESSING BUT ALSO RAISES QUESTIONS - ABNR
February 2021 saw the issuance of a raft of new government regulations to give effect to the reformist Job Creation Law (colloquially known as the ...
Thursday, 25 March 21
PROPOSED SWITCH FROM COAL TO LNG THREATENS RENEWABLE ENERGY DEVELOPMENT IN ASIA - IEEFA
Renewables offer an ever cheaper, financially sustainable and energy secure alternative, better able to support developing nations
A ...
Thursday, 25 March 21
MAJOR INVESTMENT ADVISORS BLACKROCK AND MEKETA PROVIDE A FIDUCIARY PATH THROUGH THE ENERGY TRANSITION - IEEFA
BlackRock and Meketa say divestment from fossil fuels improves, not weakens, investment returns
Two major financial management firms ...
Thursday, 25 March 21
EUROPE PASSES MILESTONE WITH HALF OF COAL PLANTS CLOSED OR SET TO RETIRE BY 2030 - EURACTIV
Half of Europe’s 324 coal-fueled power plants have either closed or announced a retirement date before 2030, it emerged on Monday (22 March) ...
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- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
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