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Saturday, 27 February 21
FITCH RATINGS REVISES GLOBAL METALS AND MINING PRICE ASSUMPTIONS
 Fitch Ratings has revised some of its metals and mining price assumptions as prices for many commodities will benefit in the short term from returning demand while the supply response remains slow and inventories are running low.
Our revision of all iron ore price assumptions is the most significant change and is driven by tight market supply, which we expect to continue in the next couple of years, and the absence of material new projects over a long period that could offset depleting mines. Vale has cut its production guidance for 2021, resulting in no supply response to growing demand, with all large-scale iron ore producers operating at almost full capacity. Inventories are running low, while we expect additional demand linked to US and European economic stimulus packages.
We have increased the short-term copper price assumption due to strategic purchases by the China State Reserve Bureau and supply risks in 2021, including renewals of labour contracts in Chile and Peru, which may result in strikes. Medium-term prices will be supported by balanced market and energy transition trends as copper is used in charging infrastructure, cabling, electric vehicles, wind generators and transformers.
We have increased our zinc price assumptions for 2021 and 2022 due to growing demand in China. Zinc production is price-sensitive and mine supply of concentrates will catch up relatively quickly.
We have raised our aluminium price assumptions for 2021 on a stronger demand recovery in China, particularly from the automotive and solar energy sectors, and re-stocking outside of China, particularly in Europe. However, we expect a production surplus outside of China to persist, causing prices to soften once pent-up demand is satisfied. Prices will recover longer-term due to incremental demand growth.
We have raised gold price assumptions for 2021 and 2022 on increased demand due to investment flows and central bank purchases. We believe that prices will moderate in the medium term to an equilibrium of USD1,200/oz.
The rise in the 2021 coking coal price assumption is due to robust demand from the steel sector, supported by recovering steel production in India, Japan, South Korea and Europe, and rebalanced flows of seaborne coal despite ongoing restrictions on Australian coal imports to China.
We expect coal demand to grow in the medium and long term, but final decisions on new projects were delayed in 2020. This means that capacity expansions that were due to take place in 2021-2023 will be delayed until 2024 or 2025. Supply will therefore remain tight, supporting medium- and long-term price assumptions.
The upward revision of the 2021 Qinhuangdao 5,500 kcal/kg coal price assumption reflects strong prices at the start of 2021, which we expect to reduce as demand normalises in the rest of the year. We expect the price to align with our medium-term price assumption in 2022 due to growing renewables and increased approvals for greenfield mines. We have lowered the long-term price reflecting China’s ambition to achieve carbon-neutrality by 2060, meaning that carbon emissions, including those from coal consumption, will peak by 2030.
The revision in the 2021 Newcastle 6,000 kcal/kg coal price reflects higher year-to-date prices. However, these will prompt operations at costlier mines to resume leading prices to moderate in line with our medium-term assumptions. The long-term price adjustment reflects a gradually normalising price gap with the Chinese benchmark.
We have raised nickel price assumptions for 2021 due to strong spot prices and our expectation of increasing demand in 2021 for stainless steel; a key consumer of nickel. We have increased our long-term assumption as we expect the increased use of nickel in batteries to lead to a market deficit from 2025.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Wednesday, 03 February 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
"2020 the year from hell for the entire world, had everything for shipowners. The introduction of the sulphur cap and VLSFO, a Pandemic outbre ...
Tuesday, 02 February 21
WILL THE ELECTRONIC B/L BE FULLY IMPLEMENTED? FIVE POINTS TO CONSIDER - MOL
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The trend towards digitization of Bills of Lading (B/L) has begun to attract attention in the trade and shipping industrie ...
Monday, 01 February 21
A 56,000-DWT OPEN MANILA WAS FIXED FOR A TRIP VIA INDONESIA REDELIVERY CHINA AT $11,500 - THE BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Capesize routes endured a week of slippage on rates, bringing the market back down to levels seen at the beginning of the month. D ...
Monday, 01 February 21
PAKISTAN: COAL DEMAND EXPECTED TO SPIKE IN 2021 - DAWN
Coal demand is expected to remain upbeat in 2021 as more coal-fired and captive power plants are coming up in the current year.
Acco ...
Friday, 29 January 21
COAL EXPORTS FROM AUSTRALIA TO MAINLAND CHINA DECLINED BY -22.2% Y-O-Y IN 2020 - BANCHERO COSTA
In the 12 months of 2020, global seaborne coal trade declined by as much as -12.7% year-on-year, according to vessel tracking data from Refinitiv, ...
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- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Parliament of New Zealand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- PTC India Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
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