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Saturday, 27 February 21
FITCH RATINGS REVISES GLOBAL METALS AND MINING PRICE ASSUMPTIONS
 Fitch Ratings has revised some of its metals and mining price assumptions as prices for many commodities will benefit in the short term from returning demand while the supply response remains slow and inventories are running low.
Our revision of all iron ore price assumptions is the most significant change and is driven by tight market supply, which we expect to continue in the next couple of years, and the absence of material new projects over a long period that could offset depleting mines. Vale has cut its production guidance for 2021, resulting in no supply response to growing demand, with all large-scale iron ore producers operating at almost full capacity. Inventories are running low, while we expect additional demand linked to US and European economic stimulus packages.
We have increased the short-term copper price assumption due to strategic purchases by the China State Reserve Bureau and supply risks in 2021, including renewals of labour contracts in Chile and Peru, which may result in strikes. Medium-term prices will be supported by balanced market and energy transition trends as copper is used in charging infrastructure, cabling, electric vehicles, wind generators and transformers.
We have increased our zinc price assumptions for 2021 and 2022 due to growing demand in China. Zinc production is price-sensitive and mine supply of concentrates will catch up relatively quickly.
We have raised our aluminium price assumptions for 2021 on a stronger demand recovery in China, particularly from the automotive and solar energy sectors, and re-stocking outside of China, particularly in Europe. However, we expect a production surplus outside of China to persist, causing prices to soften once pent-up demand is satisfied. Prices will recover longer-term due to incremental demand growth.
We have raised gold price assumptions for 2021 and 2022 on increased demand due to investment flows and central bank purchases. We believe that prices will moderate in the medium term to an equilibrium of USD1,200/oz.
The rise in the 2021 coking coal price assumption is due to robust demand from the steel sector, supported by recovering steel production in India, Japan, South Korea and Europe, and rebalanced flows of seaborne coal despite ongoing restrictions on Australian coal imports to China.
We expect coal demand to grow in the medium and long term, but final decisions on new projects were delayed in 2020. This means that capacity expansions that were due to take place in 2021-2023 will be delayed until 2024 or 2025. Supply will therefore remain tight, supporting medium- and long-term price assumptions.
The upward revision of the 2021 Qinhuangdao 5,500 kcal/kg coal price assumption reflects strong prices at the start of 2021, which we expect to reduce as demand normalises in the rest of the year. We expect the price to align with our medium-term price assumption in 2022 due to growing renewables and increased approvals for greenfield mines. We have lowered the long-term price reflecting China’s ambition to achieve carbon-neutrality by 2060, meaning that carbon emissions, including those from coal consumption, will peak by 2030.
The revision in the 2021 Newcastle 6,000 kcal/kg coal price reflects higher year-to-date prices. However, these will prompt operations at costlier mines to resume leading prices to moderate in line with our medium-term assumptions. The long-term price adjustment reflects a gradually normalising price gap with the Chinese benchmark.
We have raised nickel price assumptions for 2021 due to strong spot prices and our expectation of increasing demand in 2021 for stainless steel; a key consumer of nickel. We have increased our long-term assumption as we expect the increased use of nickel in batteries to lead to a market deficit from 2025.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Friday, 29 January 21
OPEC+, COVID-19 AND ENERGY TRANSITION - 3 THEMES IMPACTING OIL MARKETS AND REFINING IN 2021 - WOOD MACKENZIE
Wood Mackenzie’s latest outlook report shows that the art of balancing oil markets and the refining sector in 2021 hinges upon three key them ...
Thursday, 28 January 21
STRONG CHINESE THERMAL COAL IMPORTS TO BENEFIT INDONESIAN MINERS IN THE NEAR TERM - FITCH RATINGS
China's thermal coal imports are likely to remain strong ahead of the Chinese New Year in mid-February on robust demand, high utilisation at do ...
Thursday, 28 January 21
WIND PROPULSION FOR DRY BULK CARRIERS - OLDENDORFF
Oldendorff Carriers (OC) has signed a Joint Development Project (JDP) with Anemoi Marine Technologies (Anemoi), Lloyd’s Register (LR) and Sha ...
Thursday, 28 January 21
BUMA PRICED A USD400 MILLION 7.75% 5-YEAR SENIOR NOTES
PT Delta Dunia Makmur Tbk. announced that its subsidiary, PT Bukit Makmur Mandiri Utama priced a USD400 million 5-year (non-callable 2-year)& ...
Wednesday, 27 January 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As we have entered the era off renewable energies, all industries globally give max effort to minimize their carbon footprint and consequently thei ...
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- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- PTC India Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- White Energy Company Limited
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Planning Commission, India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
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