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Wednesday, 03 February 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 "2020 the year from hell for the entire world, had everything for shipowners. The introduction of the sulphur cap and VLSFO, a Pandemic outbreak leading to lock-downs around the world, the continuation of the trade war between US and China, China's coal ban from Australia, were just a few of them. On the other hand, 2020 also brought record stimulus packages globally, trillions of US Dollars, Euros and Renminbis that were thrown into the race to fight the recession that the corona-virus would bring otherwise. The shipowners and the shipping industry as a whole quickly adapted to the new standards and made the best out of the situation in the second half of last year. Furthermore, the stimulus combined with the newly emerged spending and consuming patterns and of course the COVID-19 vaccination programs around the globe are leading the way back to normality.
The dry bulk market entered 2021 on a high note supported by the broader inflection in commodity prices and increased congestion at discharging ports in China. China’s domestic thermal coal prices hit new record highs, while coal imports from all countries surged to record levels in December, lifting the annual total to its highest since 2013. In past years, Australia has been the country’s second-biggest supplier after Indonesia but the ban on Australian coal - keeping not less than 70 vessels stranded with coal outside China - has been particularly supportive for Panamax, Supramax, and Handysize bulkers, further aided by the rising coastal coal trade in China and alternative to Australia coal origins. Imports are likely to remain strong ahead of the Chinese New Year in mid-February on robust demand, while high utilisation at domestic suppliers is expected to soften high local prices just as colder than average temperatures fade and domestic coal output normalizes.
Another factor to support Panamax and Supramax freight in 2021 is corn and soybean trade. Corn prices have hit multi-year highs on strong demand from China, which has been sourcing increasingly from the US in the context of the Phase 1 trade deal, while production prospects of major suppliers such as Ukraine and Argentina look weaker. US corn futures, a global benchmark, were trading 60% higher from a 10-year low seen in April 2020. The US, the world's largest corn exporter, has seen its 2020-21 total commitments reaching record highs as buyers, again with China leading, rush to secure supplies amid tightening global corn stocks. What is more, Brazil soybean production for 2021 is projected at record high levels, pointing to another strong ECSA export season.
On the supply side, the firm orderbook is currently at a new record low of 5.8% of the fleet (down from approx.10.0% during the same period last year) at 53.4 million dwt or just over 600 vessels, while dry bulk scrap prices surged during the first month of the year, following the broader trend in steel and iron ore prices.
2020 did not offer the best conditions or stability needed for dry new buildings and as such there has been little order replenishment of bulk carriers in 2020 so the orderbook is today smaller than what it was a year ago by about 200 vessels. More specifically, in the new building orderbook out of the about 440 vessels scheduled to be delivered in 2021 only about 350 may actually be delivered assuming a 20% slippage, while there are around 375 trading vessels which are 25 years old or more and thus make candidates for demolition over the next two years. As a result, we project dry bulk fleet to grow by substantially less than 1.5%-2.0% in the next couple of years."
By Theodore Ntalakos,
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 04 January 21
BLISS FOR SHIPOWNERS! DAMAGES MAY BE CLAIMED IN ADDITION TO DEMURRAGE FOR VOYAGE CHARTERPARTY DELAY - WFW
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
In a significant decision for the maritime sector, The Eternal Bliss[1], the English Commercial Court has resol ...
Sunday, 03 January 21
INDIA: COMMERCE MINISTRY LAUNCHES COAL IMPORT MONITORING SYSTEM - PTI
CIMS shall require importers to submit advance information in an online system for imports of items and obtain an automatic registration number by ...
Wednesday, 30 December 20
A LOOK BACK INTO 2020: THE HEADWINDS, THE TAILWINDS AND EVERYTHING IN BETWEEN - SIGNAL
There is no doubt that 2020 has been a turbulent year for commercial shipping. The coronavirus pandemic has shaken the global maritime transport. T ...
Tuesday, 29 December 20
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX UP 0.66 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 134.78 points Monday, up 0.66 percent week on week.
The index, released by China ...
Tuesday, 29 December 20
CORROSION-RESISTANT STEELS FOR CARGO OIL TANKS - DNV GL
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Crude oil is a complex mixture of substances at varying ratios and in most cases contains at least some salt water. ...
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- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- The University of Queensland
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Australian Coal Association
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
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