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Wednesday, 03 February 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 "2020 the year from hell for the entire world, had everything for shipowners. The introduction of the sulphur cap and VLSFO, a Pandemic outbreak leading to lock-downs around the world, the continuation of the trade war between US and China, China's coal ban from Australia, were just a few of them. On the other hand, 2020 also brought record stimulus packages globally, trillions of US Dollars, Euros and Renminbis that were thrown into the race to fight the recession that the corona-virus would bring otherwise. The shipowners and the shipping industry as a whole quickly adapted to the new standards and made the best out of the situation in the second half of last year. Furthermore, the stimulus combined with the newly emerged spending and consuming patterns and of course the COVID-19 vaccination programs around the globe are leading the way back to normality.
The dry bulk market entered 2021 on a high note supported by the broader inflection in commodity prices and increased congestion at discharging ports in China. China’s domestic thermal coal prices hit new record highs, while coal imports from all countries surged to record levels in December, lifting the annual total to its highest since 2013. In past years, Australia has been the country’s second-biggest supplier after Indonesia but the ban on Australian coal - keeping not less than 70 vessels stranded with coal outside China - has been particularly supportive for Panamax, Supramax, and Handysize bulkers, further aided by the rising coastal coal trade in China and alternative to Australia coal origins. Imports are likely to remain strong ahead of the Chinese New Year in mid-February on robust demand, while high utilisation at domestic suppliers is expected to soften high local prices just as colder than average temperatures fade and domestic coal output normalizes.
Another factor to support Panamax and Supramax freight in 2021 is corn and soybean trade. Corn prices have hit multi-year highs on strong demand from China, which has been sourcing increasingly from the US in the context of the Phase 1 trade deal, while production prospects of major suppliers such as Ukraine and Argentina look weaker. US corn futures, a global benchmark, were trading 60% higher from a 10-year low seen in April 2020. The US, the world's largest corn exporter, has seen its 2020-21 total commitments reaching record highs as buyers, again with China leading, rush to secure supplies amid tightening global corn stocks. What is more, Brazil soybean production for 2021 is projected at record high levels, pointing to another strong ECSA export season.
On the supply side, the firm orderbook is currently at a new record low of 5.8% of the fleet (down from approx.10.0% during the same period last year) at 53.4 million dwt or just over 600 vessels, while dry bulk scrap prices surged during the first month of the year, following the broader trend in steel and iron ore prices.
2020 did not offer the best conditions or stability needed for dry new buildings and as such there has been little order replenishment of bulk carriers in 2020 so the orderbook is today smaller than what it was a year ago by about 200 vessels. More specifically, in the new building orderbook out of the about 440 vessels scheduled to be delivered in 2021 only about 350 may actually be delivered assuming a 20% slippage, while there are around 375 trading vessels which are 25 years old or more and thus make candidates for demolition over the next two years. As a result, we project dry bulk fleet to grow by substantially less than 1.5%-2.0% in the next couple of years."
By Theodore Ntalakos,
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 29 December 20
CHINA COKING COAL FUTURES RISE FOR THIRD DAY ON SUPPLY WORRIES - REUTERS
Chinese coking coal futures extended gains into a third session on Monday, jumping as much as 6.2% as lower imports, sliding inventories and mines ...
Wednesday, 23 December 20
COKING COAL'S DECLINE LIKELY TO FOLLOW THE PATH OF THERMAL COAL’S PROGRESSIVE DEMISE - IEEFA
Technology disruption the likely theme of global energy markets in 2021
There has been a growing tsunami of climate commitment annou ...
Wednesday, 23 December 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As we all know, China forges more steel than the rest of the world combined, and even during this unprecedented pandemic, the nation is set to brea ...
Tuesday, 22 December 20
2021 DRY BULK OUTLOOK - SUPPLY GROWTH - TORVALD KLAVENESS
In the first article in the series we mentioned that dry bulk freight was in a super cycle between 2001 and 2008. The growth in global yard capacit ...
Tuesday, 22 December 20
INDIA'S COAL DEMAND IS SET TO EXPAND DESPITE PLUMMETING IN 2020 - IEA
Coal consumption in India amounted to 979 Mt in 2019, with the largest share being thermal coal (including lignite) for electricity generation (687 ...
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- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Planning Commission, India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
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