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Wednesday, 03 February 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 "2020 the year from hell for the entire world, had everything for shipowners. The introduction of the sulphur cap and VLSFO, a Pandemic outbreak leading to lock-downs around the world, the continuation of the trade war between US and China, China's coal ban from Australia, were just a few of them. On the other hand, 2020 also brought record stimulus packages globally, trillions of US Dollars, Euros and Renminbis that were thrown into the race to fight the recession that the corona-virus would bring otherwise. The shipowners and the shipping industry as a whole quickly adapted to the new standards and made the best out of the situation in the second half of last year. Furthermore, the stimulus combined with the newly emerged spending and consuming patterns and of course the COVID-19 vaccination programs around the globe are leading the way back to normality.
The dry bulk market entered 2021 on a high note supported by the broader inflection in commodity prices and increased congestion at discharging ports in China. China’s domestic thermal coal prices hit new record highs, while coal imports from all countries surged to record levels in December, lifting the annual total to its highest since 2013. In past years, Australia has been the country’s second-biggest supplier after Indonesia but the ban on Australian coal - keeping not less than 70 vessels stranded with coal outside China - has been particularly supportive for Panamax, Supramax, and Handysize bulkers, further aided by the rising coastal coal trade in China and alternative to Australia coal origins. Imports are likely to remain strong ahead of the Chinese New Year in mid-February on robust demand, while high utilisation at domestic suppliers is expected to soften high local prices just as colder than average temperatures fade and domestic coal output normalizes.
Another factor to support Panamax and Supramax freight in 2021 is corn and soybean trade. Corn prices have hit multi-year highs on strong demand from China, which has been sourcing increasingly from the US in the context of the Phase 1 trade deal, while production prospects of major suppliers such as Ukraine and Argentina look weaker. US corn futures, a global benchmark, were trading 60% higher from a 10-year low seen in April 2020. The US, the world's largest corn exporter, has seen its 2020-21 total commitments reaching record highs as buyers, again with China leading, rush to secure supplies amid tightening global corn stocks. What is more, Brazil soybean production for 2021 is projected at record high levels, pointing to another strong ECSA export season.
On the supply side, the firm orderbook is currently at a new record low of 5.8% of the fleet (down from approx.10.0% during the same period last year) at 53.4 million dwt or just over 600 vessels, while dry bulk scrap prices surged during the first month of the year, following the broader trend in steel and iron ore prices.
2020 did not offer the best conditions or stability needed for dry new buildings and as such there has been little order replenishment of bulk carriers in 2020 so the orderbook is today smaller than what it was a year ago by about 200 vessels. More specifically, in the new building orderbook out of the about 440 vessels scheduled to be delivered in 2021 only about 350 may actually be delivered assuming a 20% slippage, while there are around 375 trading vessels which are 25 years old or more and thus make candidates for demolition over the next two years. As a result, we project dry bulk fleet to grow by substantially less than 1.5%-2.0% in the next couple of years."
By Theodore Ntalakos,
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 22 December 20
SOUTHEAST ASIA'S COAL DEMAND IS SET TO EXPAND AFTER THE PANDEMIC-INDUCED HIATUS IN 2020 - IEA
Coal consumption in Southeast Asia has more than doubled in the last decade, with the largest growth in Indonesia and Viet Nam, followed by Malaysi ...
Tuesday, 22 December 20
COAL DEMAND IS RISING QUICKLY IN PAKISTAN AND MORE SLOWLY IN BANGLADESH - IEA
Pakistan had 150 MW of installed coal power capacity in 2015. Since 2017, in addition to a few small plants for industry, Pakistan has commissioned ...
Tuesday, 22 December 20
AFRICA PERSPECTIVE INDICATES NO MAJOR SHIFTS FOR COAL CONSUMPTION - IEA
Overall countries on the African continent consumed 197 Mt of coal in 2019, 12 Mt less (-6%) than 2018.
South Africa, the continent& ...
Monday, 21 December 20
COAL PRICES WITHSTAND DESPITE COVID-19 AND CHINESE IMPORT QUOTAS - IEA
Coal prices vary by region as well as by grade and quality. The price rebound starting in 2016 ended in 2018, moving in a downward trend in 2019. A ...
Monday, 21 December 20
COAL'S PARTIAL RECOVERY IS SET TO FADE AFTER 2021 - IEA
Global coal consumption is estimated to have fallen by 7%, or over 500 million tonnes, between 2018 in 2020. A decline of this size over a two-year ...
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- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Planning Commission, India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- The University of Queensland
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
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