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Wednesday, 03 February 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 "2020 the year from hell for the entire world, had everything for shipowners. The introduction of the sulphur cap and VLSFO, a Pandemic outbreak leading to lock-downs around the world, the continuation of the trade war between US and China, China's coal ban from Australia, were just a few of them. On the other hand, 2020 also brought record stimulus packages globally, trillions of US Dollars, Euros and Renminbis that were thrown into the race to fight the recession that the corona-virus would bring otherwise. The shipowners and the shipping industry as a whole quickly adapted to the new standards and made the best out of the situation in the second half of last year. Furthermore, the stimulus combined with the newly emerged spending and consuming patterns and of course the COVID-19 vaccination programs around the globe are leading the way back to normality.
The dry bulk market entered 2021 on a high note supported by the broader inflection in commodity prices and increased congestion at discharging ports in China. China’s domestic thermal coal prices hit new record highs, while coal imports from all countries surged to record levels in December, lifting the annual total to its highest since 2013. In past years, Australia has been the country’s second-biggest supplier after Indonesia but the ban on Australian coal - keeping not less than 70 vessels stranded with coal outside China - has been particularly supportive for Panamax, Supramax, and Handysize bulkers, further aided by the rising coastal coal trade in China and alternative to Australia coal origins. Imports are likely to remain strong ahead of the Chinese New Year in mid-February on robust demand, while high utilisation at domestic suppliers is expected to soften high local prices just as colder than average temperatures fade and domestic coal output normalizes.
Another factor to support Panamax and Supramax freight in 2021 is corn and soybean trade. Corn prices have hit multi-year highs on strong demand from China, which has been sourcing increasingly from the US in the context of the Phase 1 trade deal, while production prospects of major suppliers such as Ukraine and Argentina look weaker. US corn futures, a global benchmark, were trading 60% higher from a 10-year low seen in April 2020. The US, the world's largest corn exporter, has seen its 2020-21 total commitments reaching record highs as buyers, again with China leading, rush to secure supplies amid tightening global corn stocks. What is more, Brazil soybean production for 2021 is projected at record high levels, pointing to another strong ECSA export season.
On the supply side, the firm orderbook is currently at a new record low of 5.8% of the fleet (down from approx.10.0% during the same period last year) at 53.4 million dwt or just over 600 vessels, while dry bulk scrap prices surged during the first month of the year, following the broader trend in steel and iron ore prices.
2020 did not offer the best conditions or stability needed for dry new buildings and as such there has been little order replenishment of bulk carriers in 2020 so the orderbook is today smaller than what it was a year ago by about 200 vessels. More specifically, in the new building orderbook out of the about 440 vessels scheduled to be delivered in 2021 only about 350 may actually be delivered assuming a 20% slippage, while there are around 375 trading vessels which are 25 years old or more and thus make candidates for demolition over the next two years. As a result, we project dry bulk fleet to grow by substantially less than 1.5%-2.0% in the next couple of years."
By Theodore Ntalakos,
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 17 December 20
BUMA SIGNED US$1.0 BILLION WORTH OF EXTENSION CONTRACT WITH BERAU COAL
PT Bukit Makmur Mandiri Utama, subsidiary of PT Delta Dunia Makmur Tbk., has extended its mining services contracts with PT Berau Coal, in relation ...
Wednesday, 16 December 20
INDONESIA 2020 COAL CONSUMPTION ESTIMATED AT 140-145 MLN TONNES - OFFICIAL, REUTERS REPORTED
Indonesia’s domestic coal consumption is estimated at 140-145 million tonnes this year, Dodik Ariyanto, an official at the energy ministry, t ...
Wednesday, 16 December 20
RUSSIA REVISES DOWN EXPORT EXPECTATION - FITCH
The Ministry of Economy of Russia, the world’s third largest thermal coal exporting country, released its annual forecasts ...
Wednesday, 16 December 20
INDIAN COAL IMPORTS TO REMAIN SUBDUED - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Rating commented on Indian Coal Imports, Fitch said, coal imports by Indian utilities fell by about 24% yoy to 44 million tonnes (mt) i ...
Wednesday, 16 December 20
CHINA TO BOOST DOMESTIC SUPPLY - FITCH
China’s benchmark Qinhuangdao 5,500kcal/kg coal price rose above the government’s upper yellow interval of CNY600/tonne in early Octobe ...
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- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- PTC India Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- The University of Queensland
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
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