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Wednesday, 03 February 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 "2020 the year from hell for the entire world, had everything for shipowners. The introduction of the sulphur cap and VLSFO, a Pandemic outbreak leading to lock-downs around the world, the continuation of the trade war between US and China, China's coal ban from Australia, were just a few of them. On the other hand, 2020 also brought record stimulus packages globally, trillions of US Dollars, Euros and Renminbis that were thrown into the race to fight the recession that the corona-virus would bring otherwise. The shipowners and the shipping industry as a whole quickly adapted to the new standards and made the best out of the situation in the second half of last year. Furthermore, the stimulus combined with the newly emerged spending and consuming patterns and of course the COVID-19 vaccination programs around the globe are leading the way back to normality.
The dry bulk market entered 2021 on a high note supported by the broader inflection in commodity prices and increased congestion at discharging ports in China. China’s domestic thermal coal prices hit new record highs, while coal imports from all countries surged to record levels in December, lifting the annual total to its highest since 2013. In past years, Australia has been the country’s second-biggest supplier after Indonesia but the ban on Australian coal - keeping not less than 70 vessels stranded with coal outside China - has been particularly supportive for Panamax, Supramax, and Handysize bulkers, further aided by the rising coastal coal trade in China and alternative to Australia coal origins. Imports are likely to remain strong ahead of the Chinese New Year in mid-February on robust demand, while high utilisation at domestic suppliers is expected to soften high local prices just as colder than average temperatures fade and domestic coal output normalizes.
Another factor to support Panamax and Supramax freight in 2021 is corn and soybean trade. Corn prices have hit multi-year highs on strong demand from China, which has been sourcing increasingly from the US in the context of the Phase 1 trade deal, while production prospects of major suppliers such as Ukraine and Argentina look weaker. US corn futures, a global benchmark, were trading 60% higher from a 10-year low seen in April 2020. The US, the world's largest corn exporter, has seen its 2020-21 total commitments reaching record highs as buyers, again with China leading, rush to secure supplies amid tightening global corn stocks. What is more, Brazil soybean production for 2021 is projected at record high levels, pointing to another strong ECSA export season.
On the supply side, the firm orderbook is currently at a new record low of 5.8% of the fleet (down from approx.10.0% during the same period last year) at 53.4 million dwt or just over 600 vessels, while dry bulk scrap prices surged during the first month of the year, following the broader trend in steel and iron ore prices.
2020 did not offer the best conditions or stability needed for dry new buildings and as such there has been little order replenishment of bulk carriers in 2020 so the orderbook is today smaller than what it was a year ago by about 200 vessels. More specifically, in the new building orderbook out of the about 440 vessels scheduled to be delivered in 2021 only about 350 may actually be delivered assuming a 20% slippage, while there are around 375 trading vessels which are 25 years old or more and thus make candidates for demolition over the next two years. As a result, we project dry bulk fleet to grow by substantially less than 1.5%-2.0% in the next couple of years."
By Theodore Ntalakos,
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Sunday, 13 December 20
LONGSTANDING DOWNSIDE RISKS TO TRADE OUTLOOK - BALTIC EXCHANGE
The OECD has attempted to put a positive spin on the trade message emanating from its latest economic outlook, released last week.
The ...
Sunday, 13 December 20
INDONESIA COAL OUTPUT AT 514 MILLION TONNES THIS YEAR, 2021 TARGET UNCHANGED - REUTERS
Indonesia coal output in the period to Dec. 10 stood at 514.2 million tonnes, official data from the energy ministry’s website showed.
&n ...
Thursday, 10 December 20
MALAYSIA'S CIMB ANNOUNCES COAL FINANCING PHASE-OUT BY 2040 AS ASIA'S FOSSIL FUEL DIVESTMENT DRIVE ACCELERATES - IEEFA
The first emerging markets bank to announce a progressive coal exit policy
Malaysia’s CIMB Group Holdings (CIMB) has announced ...
Wednesday, 09 December 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Heading towards the end of a difficult year and with the entire planet under the shadow of the covid-19 virus, it is interesting to proceed with a ...
Tuesday, 08 December 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPPING
It is now undisputed that oil consumption for 2020 will post a considerable drop, as demand for several petroleum products has plummeted since the ...
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- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- The University of Queensland
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Australian Coal Association
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
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