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Wednesday, 03 February 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 "2020 the year from hell for the entire world, had everything for shipowners. The introduction of the sulphur cap and VLSFO, a Pandemic outbreak leading to lock-downs around the world, the continuation of the trade war between US and China, China's coal ban from Australia, were just a few of them. On the other hand, 2020 also brought record stimulus packages globally, trillions of US Dollars, Euros and Renminbis that were thrown into the race to fight the recession that the corona-virus would bring otherwise. The shipowners and the shipping industry as a whole quickly adapted to the new standards and made the best out of the situation in the second half of last year. Furthermore, the stimulus combined with the newly emerged spending and consuming patterns and of course the COVID-19 vaccination programs around the globe are leading the way back to normality.
The dry bulk market entered 2021 on a high note supported by the broader inflection in commodity prices and increased congestion at discharging ports in China. China’s domestic thermal coal prices hit new record highs, while coal imports from all countries surged to record levels in December, lifting the annual total to its highest since 2013. In past years, Australia has been the country’s second-biggest supplier after Indonesia but the ban on Australian coal - keeping not less than 70 vessels stranded with coal outside China - has been particularly supportive for Panamax, Supramax, and Handysize bulkers, further aided by the rising coastal coal trade in China and alternative to Australia coal origins. Imports are likely to remain strong ahead of the Chinese New Year in mid-February on robust demand, while high utilisation at domestic suppliers is expected to soften high local prices just as colder than average temperatures fade and domestic coal output normalizes.
Another factor to support Panamax and Supramax freight in 2021 is corn and soybean trade. Corn prices have hit multi-year highs on strong demand from China, which has been sourcing increasingly from the US in the context of the Phase 1 trade deal, while production prospects of major suppliers such as Ukraine and Argentina look weaker. US corn futures, a global benchmark, were trading 60% higher from a 10-year low seen in April 2020. The US, the world's largest corn exporter, has seen its 2020-21 total commitments reaching record highs as buyers, again with China leading, rush to secure supplies amid tightening global corn stocks. What is more, Brazil soybean production for 2021 is projected at record high levels, pointing to another strong ECSA export season.
On the supply side, the firm orderbook is currently at a new record low of 5.8% of the fleet (down from approx.10.0% during the same period last year) at 53.4 million dwt or just over 600 vessels, while dry bulk scrap prices surged during the first month of the year, following the broader trend in steel and iron ore prices.
2020 did not offer the best conditions or stability needed for dry new buildings and as such there has been little order replenishment of bulk carriers in 2020 so the orderbook is today smaller than what it was a year ago by about 200 vessels. More specifically, in the new building orderbook out of the about 440 vessels scheduled to be delivered in 2021 only about 350 may actually be delivered assuming a 20% slippage, while there are around 375 trading vessels which are 25 years old or more and thus make candidates for demolition over the next two years. As a result, we project dry bulk fleet to grow by substantially less than 1.5%-2.0% in the next couple of years."
By Theodore Ntalakos,
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 08 December 20
PANAMAX: THE OVERALL MARKET SEEMS TO BE UNDER NEGATIVE PRESSURE - ALLIED
Capesize
A rather indifferent week for the Capesize market, with BCI 5TC figure finishing the week with slight losses of 0.8%. The Atlantic enj ...
Friday, 04 December 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE EDGES UP - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price rose slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge of ...
Friday, 04 December 20
THE INDONESIA COAL PRICE REFERENCE REACHES THREE MONTH HIGH ON IMPROVING DEMAND OUTLOOK
COALspot.com: The Indonesia Coal Price Reference reaches three month high on improving demand outlook . The Indonesia Coal Price Reference rose by& ...
Wednesday, 02 December 20
GLOBAL MINING SECTOR OUTLOOK STABLE DUE TO CHINA'S RECOVERY - FITCH RATINGS
China’s post-pandemic economic recovery and sizeable infrastructure-focused government stimulus boosted global metals and mining prices, help ...
Wednesday, 02 December 20
INDONESIA CONSIDERING CLOSING 3,400MW SURALAYA COAL PLANT - THE JAKARTA POST
The government is considering to shut down the aging Suralaya coal-fired power plant (PLTU) in Cilegon, Banten, and replace it with green energy, a ...
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- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- MS Steel International - UAE
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Planning Commission, India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
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