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Wednesday, 03 February 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 "2020 the year from hell for the entire world, had everything for shipowners. The introduction of the sulphur cap and VLSFO, a Pandemic outbreak leading to lock-downs around the world, the continuation of the trade war between US and China, China's coal ban from Australia, were just a few of them. On the other hand, 2020 also brought record stimulus packages globally, trillions of US Dollars, Euros and Renminbis that were thrown into the race to fight the recession that the corona-virus would bring otherwise. The shipowners and the shipping industry as a whole quickly adapted to the new standards and made the best out of the situation in the second half of last year. Furthermore, the stimulus combined with the newly emerged spending and consuming patterns and of course the COVID-19 vaccination programs around the globe are leading the way back to normality.
The dry bulk market entered 2021 on a high note supported by the broader inflection in commodity prices and increased congestion at discharging ports in China. China’s domestic thermal coal prices hit new record highs, while coal imports from all countries surged to record levels in December, lifting the annual total to its highest since 2013. In past years, Australia has been the country’s second-biggest supplier after Indonesia but the ban on Australian coal - keeping not less than 70 vessels stranded with coal outside China - has been particularly supportive for Panamax, Supramax, and Handysize bulkers, further aided by the rising coastal coal trade in China and alternative to Australia coal origins. Imports are likely to remain strong ahead of the Chinese New Year in mid-February on robust demand, while high utilisation at domestic suppliers is expected to soften high local prices just as colder than average temperatures fade and domestic coal output normalizes.
Another factor to support Panamax and Supramax freight in 2021 is corn and soybean trade. Corn prices have hit multi-year highs on strong demand from China, which has been sourcing increasingly from the US in the context of the Phase 1 trade deal, while production prospects of major suppliers such as Ukraine and Argentina look weaker. US corn futures, a global benchmark, were trading 60% higher from a 10-year low seen in April 2020. The US, the world's largest corn exporter, has seen its 2020-21 total commitments reaching record highs as buyers, again with China leading, rush to secure supplies amid tightening global corn stocks. What is more, Brazil soybean production for 2021 is projected at record high levels, pointing to another strong ECSA export season.
On the supply side, the firm orderbook is currently at a new record low of 5.8% of the fleet (down from approx.10.0% during the same period last year) at 53.4 million dwt or just over 600 vessels, while dry bulk scrap prices surged during the first month of the year, following the broader trend in steel and iron ore prices.
2020 did not offer the best conditions or stability needed for dry new buildings and as such there has been little order replenishment of bulk carriers in 2020 so the orderbook is today smaller than what it was a year ago by about 200 vessels. More specifically, in the new building orderbook out of the about 440 vessels scheduled to be delivered in 2021 only about 350 may actually be delivered assuming a 20% slippage, while there are around 375 trading vessels which are 25 years old or more and thus make candidates for demolition over the next two years. As a result, we project dry bulk fleet to grow by substantially less than 1.5%-2.0% in the next couple of years."
By Theodore Ntalakos,
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 16 December 20
INDONESIAN COAL RECOVERING - FITCH
Commenting on Indonesian coal, Fitch Ratings, the Indonesian 4,200 kcal index has begun to recover, improving to over USD 29 in November compared t ...
Tuesday, 15 December 20
NEWCASTLE PRICES RECOVER - FITCH
Prices for the benchmark Newcastle 6,000 kcal/kg grade coal have rebounded to over USD 70/tonne since late November as major Asian economies ease l ...
Tuesday, 15 December 20
APAC COAL PRICES REBOUND ON IMPROVED DEMAND AND SUPPLY CUTS - FITCH RATINGS
Prices for the benchmark Newcastle 6,000kcal/kg grade coal have rebounded to over USD70/tonne since late November as major Asian economies ease loc ...
Tuesday, 15 December 20
CHINA EXTENDS FULL OPEN GESTURE TO IMPORTED COAL EXCEPT FOR AUSTRALIA - GLOBAL TIMES
Domestic, overseas suppliers will take up share with easier clearance
China's top economic planner on Saturday gave approval to ...
Monday, 14 December 20
PHILIPPINE BANK RCBC TO STOP LENDING FOR NEW COAL-FIRED POWER PROJECTS - MANILA BULLETIN
Yuchengco-led Rizal Commercial Banking Corporation (RCBC) has forthrightly declared that it will no longer extend financing to new coal-fired power ...
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- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- The University of Queensland
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- White Energy Company Limited
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Minerals Council of Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
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