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Wednesday, 03 February 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 "2020 the year from hell for the entire world, had everything for shipowners. The introduction of the sulphur cap and VLSFO, a Pandemic outbreak leading to lock-downs around the world, the continuation of the trade war between US and China, China's coal ban from Australia, were just a few of them. On the other hand, 2020 also brought record stimulus packages globally, trillions of US Dollars, Euros and Renminbis that were thrown into the race to fight the recession that the corona-virus would bring otherwise. The shipowners and the shipping industry as a whole quickly adapted to the new standards and made the best out of the situation in the second half of last year. Furthermore, the stimulus combined with the newly emerged spending and consuming patterns and of course the COVID-19 vaccination programs around the globe are leading the way back to normality.
The dry bulk market entered 2021 on a high note supported by the broader inflection in commodity prices and increased congestion at discharging ports in China. China’s domestic thermal coal prices hit new record highs, while coal imports from all countries surged to record levels in December, lifting the annual total to its highest since 2013. In past years, Australia has been the country’s second-biggest supplier after Indonesia but the ban on Australian coal - keeping not less than 70 vessels stranded with coal outside China - has been particularly supportive for Panamax, Supramax, and Handysize bulkers, further aided by the rising coastal coal trade in China and alternative to Australia coal origins. Imports are likely to remain strong ahead of the Chinese New Year in mid-February on robust demand, while high utilisation at domestic suppliers is expected to soften high local prices just as colder than average temperatures fade and domestic coal output normalizes.
Another factor to support Panamax and Supramax freight in 2021 is corn and soybean trade. Corn prices have hit multi-year highs on strong demand from China, which has been sourcing increasingly from the US in the context of the Phase 1 trade deal, while production prospects of major suppliers such as Ukraine and Argentina look weaker. US corn futures, a global benchmark, were trading 60% higher from a 10-year low seen in April 2020. The US, the world's largest corn exporter, has seen its 2020-21 total commitments reaching record highs as buyers, again with China leading, rush to secure supplies amid tightening global corn stocks. What is more, Brazil soybean production for 2021 is projected at record high levels, pointing to another strong ECSA export season.
On the supply side, the firm orderbook is currently at a new record low of 5.8% of the fleet (down from approx.10.0% during the same period last year) at 53.4 million dwt or just over 600 vessels, while dry bulk scrap prices surged during the first month of the year, following the broader trend in steel and iron ore prices.
2020 did not offer the best conditions or stability needed for dry new buildings and as such there has been little order replenishment of bulk carriers in 2020 so the orderbook is today smaller than what it was a year ago by about 200 vessels. More specifically, in the new building orderbook out of the about 440 vessels scheduled to be delivered in 2021 only about 350 may actually be delivered assuming a 20% slippage, while there are around 375 trading vessels which are 25 years old or more and thus make candidates for demolition over the next two years. As a result, we project dry bulk fleet to grow by substantially less than 1.5%-2.0% in the next couple of years."
By Theodore Ntalakos,
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 06 January 21
INDONESIA EXCEEDS COAL PRODUCTION TARGET IN 2020
Indonesian coal production reached 557.54 Million Tons in 2020 1.37% higher than of last year’s total target of 550.00 Million Tons, accordin ...
Wednesday, 06 January 21
CHINESE CITIES REPORTEDLY GO DARK AS COUNTRY FACES SHORTAGE OF COAL, A MAJOR AUSTRALIAN EXPORT - CNBC
Several major Chinese cities have reportedly gone dark as authorities limit power usage, citing a shortage of coal.
Analysts said pr ...
Tuesday, 05 January 21
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX UP - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 136 points Monday, up 0.91 percent week on week.
The index, released by China Ta ...
Tuesday, 05 January 21
THE INDONESIA COAL PRICE REFERENCE SOARS TO HIGHEST ONE-MONTH INCREASE SINCE DECEMBER 2016
COALspot.com: The Indonesia coal price reference for January 2021 settles above $75 for the first time since July 2019 and to highest one-month inc ...
Monday, 04 January 21
U.S. RENEWABLE ENERGY CONSUMPTION SURPASSES COAL FOR THE FIRST TIME IN OVER 130 YEARS - EIA
In 2019, U.S. annual energy consumption from renewable sources exceeded coal consumption for the first time since before 1885, according to the U.S ...
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- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- The University of Queensland
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
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