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Wednesday, 03 February 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 "2020 the year from hell for the entire world, had everything for shipowners. The introduction of the sulphur cap and VLSFO, a Pandemic outbreak leading to lock-downs around the world, the continuation of the trade war between US and China, China's coal ban from Australia, were just a few of them. On the other hand, 2020 also brought record stimulus packages globally, trillions of US Dollars, Euros and Renminbis that were thrown into the race to fight the recession that the corona-virus would bring otherwise. The shipowners and the shipping industry as a whole quickly adapted to the new standards and made the best out of the situation in the second half of last year. Furthermore, the stimulus combined with the newly emerged spending and consuming patterns and of course the COVID-19 vaccination programs around the globe are leading the way back to normality.
The dry bulk market entered 2021 on a high note supported by the broader inflection in commodity prices and increased congestion at discharging ports in China. China’s domestic thermal coal prices hit new record highs, while coal imports from all countries surged to record levels in December, lifting the annual total to its highest since 2013. In past years, Australia has been the country’s second-biggest supplier after Indonesia but the ban on Australian coal - keeping not less than 70 vessels stranded with coal outside China - has been particularly supportive for Panamax, Supramax, and Handysize bulkers, further aided by the rising coastal coal trade in China and alternative to Australia coal origins. Imports are likely to remain strong ahead of the Chinese New Year in mid-February on robust demand, while high utilisation at domestic suppliers is expected to soften high local prices just as colder than average temperatures fade and domestic coal output normalizes.
Another factor to support Panamax and Supramax freight in 2021 is corn and soybean trade. Corn prices have hit multi-year highs on strong demand from China, which has been sourcing increasingly from the US in the context of the Phase 1 trade deal, while production prospects of major suppliers such as Ukraine and Argentina look weaker. US corn futures, a global benchmark, were trading 60% higher from a 10-year low seen in April 2020. The US, the world's largest corn exporter, has seen its 2020-21 total commitments reaching record highs as buyers, again with China leading, rush to secure supplies amid tightening global corn stocks. What is more, Brazil soybean production for 2021 is projected at record high levels, pointing to another strong ECSA export season.
On the supply side, the firm orderbook is currently at a new record low of 5.8% of the fleet (down from approx.10.0% during the same period last year) at 53.4 million dwt or just over 600 vessels, while dry bulk scrap prices surged during the first month of the year, following the broader trend in steel and iron ore prices.
2020 did not offer the best conditions or stability needed for dry new buildings and as such there has been little order replenishment of bulk carriers in 2020 so the orderbook is today smaller than what it was a year ago by about 200 vessels. More specifically, in the new building orderbook out of the about 440 vessels scheduled to be delivered in 2021 only about 350 may actually be delivered assuming a 20% slippage, while there are around 375 trading vessels which are 25 years old or more and thus make candidates for demolition over the next two years. As a result, we project dry bulk fleet to grow by substantially less than 1.5%-2.0% in the next couple of years."
By Theodore Ntalakos,
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
The Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Friday, 15 January 21
OVER US$50 BILLION IN GAS POWER PROJECTS AND LNG IMPORT FACILITIES AT RISK OF CANCELLATION IN BANGLADESH, PAKISTAN AND VIETNAM - IEEFA
Pakistan and Bangladesh have already cancelled tenders for LNG imports
Emerging markets such as Vietnam, Pakistan and Bangladesh tha ...
Friday, 15 January 21
VIETNAM'S EXTRAORDINARY ROOFTOP SOLAR SUCCESS DEALS ANOTHER BLOW TO THE REMAINING COAL PIPELINE - IEEFA
9.3 gigawatts peak of solar capacity, equal to 6 coal power plants, installed in less than a year
Vietnam’s solar power indust ...
Friday, 15 January 21
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE EDGES UP - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price rose slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge of ...
Thursday, 14 January 21
KOREA MIDLAND POWER INVITED BIDS FOR AUSTRALIAN COAL FOR THREE YEARS SUPPLY
COALspot.com: Korea Midland Power Co. Ltd, issued an International tender for total 1,560,000 MT of Min.5,700 kcal/kg NCV coal of Australian Origin ...
Wednesday, 13 January 21
CHINA THERMAL GENCO PROFITS FACE PRESSURE AMID POWER SHORTAGES - FITHCH WIRE
High coal and gas prices will put near-term pressure on margins for thermal power generators in China, says Fitch Ratings. However, the power short ...
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- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Australian Coal Association
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
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