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Wednesday, 03 February 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 "2020 the year from hell for the entire world, had everything for shipowners. The introduction of the sulphur cap and VLSFO, a Pandemic outbreak leading to lock-downs around the world, the continuation of the trade war between US and China, China's coal ban from Australia, were just a few of them. On the other hand, 2020 also brought record stimulus packages globally, trillions of US Dollars, Euros and Renminbis that were thrown into the race to fight the recession that the corona-virus would bring otherwise. The shipowners and the shipping industry as a whole quickly adapted to the new standards and made the best out of the situation in the second half of last year. Furthermore, the stimulus combined with the newly emerged spending and consuming patterns and of course the COVID-19 vaccination programs around the globe are leading the way back to normality.
The dry bulk market entered 2021 on a high note supported by the broader inflection in commodity prices and increased congestion at discharging ports in China. China’s domestic thermal coal prices hit new record highs, while coal imports from all countries surged to record levels in December, lifting the annual total to its highest since 2013. In past years, Australia has been the country’s second-biggest supplier after Indonesia but the ban on Australian coal - keeping not less than 70 vessels stranded with coal outside China - has been particularly supportive for Panamax, Supramax, and Handysize bulkers, further aided by the rising coastal coal trade in China and alternative to Australia coal origins. Imports are likely to remain strong ahead of the Chinese New Year in mid-February on robust demand, while high utilisation at domestic suppliers is expected to soften high local prices just as colder than average temperatures fade and domestic coal output normalizes.
Another factor to support Panamax and Supramax freight in 2021 is corn and soybean trade. Corn prices have hit multi-year highs on strong demand from China, which has been sourcing increasingly from the US in the context of the Phase 1 trade deal, while production prospects of major suppliers such as Ukraine and Argentina look weaker. US corn futures, a global benchmark, were trading 60% higher from a 10-year low seen in April 2020. The US, the world's largest corn exporter, has seen its 2020-21 total commitments reaching record highs as buyers, again with China leading, rush to secure supplies amid tightening global corn stocks. What is more, Brazil soybean production for 2021 is projected at record high levels, pointing to another strong ECSA export season.
On the supply side, the firm orderbook is currently at a new record low of 5.8% of the fleet (down from approx.10.0% during the same period last year) at 53.4 million dwt or just over 600 vessels, while dry bulk scrap prices surged during the first month of the year, following the broader trend in steel and iron ore prices.
2020 did not offer the best conditions or stability needed for dry new buildings and as such there has been little order replenishment of bulk carriers in 2020 so the orderbook is today smaller than what it was a year ago by about 200 vessels. More specifically, in the new building orderbook out of the about 440 vessels scheduled to be delivered in 2021 only about 350 may actually be delivered assuming a 20% slippage, while there are around 375 trading vessels which are 25 years old or more and thus make candidates for demolition over the next two years. As a result, we project dry bulk fleet to grow by substantially less than 1.5%-2.0% in the next couple of years."
By Theodore Ntalakos,
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
The Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Friday, 15 January 21
OVER US$50 BILLION IN GAS POWER PROJECTS AND LNG IMPORT FACILITIES AT RISK OF CANCELLATION IN BANGLADESH, PAKISTAN AND VIETNAM - IEEFA
Pakistan and Bangladesh have already cancelled tenders for LNG imports
Emerging markets such as Vietnam, Pakistan and Bangladesh tha ...
Friday, 15 January 21
VIETNAM'S EXTRAORDINARY ROOFTOP SOLAR SUCCESS DEALS ANOTHER BLOW TO THE REMAINING COAL PIPELINE - IEEFA
9.3 gigawatts peak of solar capacity, equal to 6 coal power plants, installed in less than a year
Vietnam’s solar power indust ...
Friday, 15 January 21
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE EDGES UP - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price rose slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge of ...
Thursday, 14 January 21
KOREA MIDLAND POWER INVITED BIDS FOR AUSTRALIAN COAL FOR THREE YEARS SUPPLY
COALspot.com: Korea Midland Power Co. Ltd, issued an International tender for total 1,560,000 MT of Min.5,700 kcal/kg NCV coal of Australian Origin ...
Wednesday, 13 January 21
CHINA THERMAL GENCO PROFITS FACE PRESSURE AMID POWER SHORTAGES - FITHCH WIRE
High coal and gas prices will put near-term pressure on margins for thermal power generators in China, says Fitch Ratings. However, the power short ...
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- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Parliament of New Zealand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Planning Commission, India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- The University of Queensland
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Australian Coal Association
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Minerals Council of Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
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