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Wednesday, 03 February 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 "2020 the year from hell for the entire world, had everything for shipowners. The introduction of the sulphur cap and VLSFO, a Pandemic outbreak leading to lock-downs around the world, the continuation of the trade war between US and China, China's coal ban from Australia, were just a few of them. On the other hand, 2020 also brought record stimulus packages globally, trillions of US Dollars, Euros and Renminbis that were thrown into the race to fight the recession that the corona-virus would bring otherwise. The shipowners and the shipping industry as a whole quickly adapted to the new standards and made the best out of the situation in the second half of last year. Furthermore, the stimulus combined with the newly emerged spending and consuming patterns and of course the COVID-19 vaccination programs around the globe are leading the way back to normality.
The dry bulk market entered 2021 on a high note supported by the broader inflection in commodity prices and increased congestion at discharging ports in China. China’s domestic thermal coal prices hit new record highs, while coal imports from all countries surged to record levels in December, lifting the annual total to its highest since 2013. In past years, Australia has been the country’s second-biggest supplier after Indonesia but the ban on Australian coal - keeping not less than 70 vessels stranded with coal outside China - has been particularly supportive for Panamax, Supramax, and Handysize bulkers, further aided by the rising coastal coal trade in China and alternative to Australia coal origins. Imports are likely to remain strong ahead of the Chinese New Year in mid-February on robust demand, while high utilisation at domestic suppliers is expected to soften high local prices just as colder than average temperatures fade and domestic coal output normalizes.
Another factor to support Panamax and Supramax freight in 2021 is corn and soybean trade. Corn prices have hit multi-year highs on strong demand from China, which has been sourcing increasingly from the US in the context of the Phase 1 trade deal, while production prospects of major suppliers such as Ukraine and Argentina look weaker. US corn futures, a global benchmark, were trading 60% higher from a 10-year low seen in April 2020. The US, the world's largest corn exporter, has seen its 2020-21 total commitments reaching record highs as buyers, again with China leading, rush to secure supplies amid tightening global corn stocks. What is more, Brazil soybean production for 2021 is projected at record high levels, pointing to another strong ECSA export season.
On the supply side, the firm orderbook is currently at a new record low of 5.8% of the fleet (down from approx.10.0% during the same period last year) at 53.4 million dwt or just over 600 vessels, while dry bulk scrap prices surged during the first month of the year, following the broader trend in steel and iron ore prices.
2020 did not offer the best conditions or stability needed for dry new buildings and as such there has been little order replenishment of bulk carriers in 2020 so the orderbook is today smaller than what it was a year ago by about 200 vessels. More specifically, in the new building orderbook out of the about 440 vessels scheduled to be delivered in 2021 only about 350 may actually be delivered assuming a 20% slippage, while there are around 375 trading vessels which are 25 years old or more and thus make candidates for demolition over the next two years. As a result, we project dry bulk fleet to grow by substantially less than 1.5%-2.0% in the next couple of years."
By Theodore Ntalakos,
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 25 January 21
ULTRAMAX YET ANOTHER POSITIVE WEEK FOR THE SECTOR, WHICH SAW INCREASED DEMAND ACROSS ALL BASINS - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Capesize market rocked and rolled these past few days. But by weeks end little had changed on the Capesize 5TC as it settled down ...
Monday, 25 January 21
NEW LAW IN CALIFORNIA, USA, AFFECTING SHIPOWNERS' LIABILITY FOR OIL POLLUTION - BIMCO
Members are advised that amendments to the so-called Lempert-Keene-Seastrand Oil Spill Prevention and Response Act of 1990 in the State of Californ ...
Monday, 25 January 21
COAL INDIA SAYS GEARED UP TO MEET SURGE IN FUEL DEMAND FROM POWER SECTOR - PTI
State-owned Coal India Ltd on Saturday said that it is well geared to meet any surge in demand for coal from the power sector.
The s ...
Sunday, 24 January 21
GOVT ASSURES COAL INDIA OF 'FULL SUPPORT', STRESSES ON LEARNING 'NEW THINGS' - PTI
Coal Minister Pralhad Joshi assured Coal India of full government support, even as he said the PSU needs to learn “new things” for impr ...
Saturday, 23 January 21
GOVT PLANNING TO OPEN UP COAL MARKETING TO STREAMLINE PROCESS - THE INDIAN EXPRESS
The government is considering opening up coal marketing, Coal Secretary Anil Kumar Jain said on Thursday. Currently, production by Coal India is al ...
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- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- PTC India Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Planning Commission, India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- The University of Queensland
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
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