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Wednesday, 03 February 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 "2020 the year from hell for the entire world, had everything for shipowners. The introduction of the sulphur cap and VLSFO, a Pandemic outbreak leading to lock-downs around the world, the continuation of the trade war between US and China, China's coal ban from Australia, were just a few of them. On the other hand, 2020 also brought record stimulus packages globally, trillions of US Dollars, Euros and Renminbis that were thrown into the race to fight the recession that the corona-virus would bring otherwise. The shipowners and the shipping industry as a whole quickly adapted to the new standards and made the best out of the situation in the second half of last year. Furthermore, the stimulus combined with the newly emerged spending and consuming patterns and of course the COVID-19 vaccination programs around the globe are leading the way back to normality.
The dry bulk market entered 2021 on a high note supported by the broader inflection in commodity prices and increased congestion at discharging ports in China. China’s domestic thermal coal prices hit new record highs, while coal imports from all countries surged to record levels in December, lifting the annual total to its highest since 2013. In past years, Australia has been the country’s second-biggest supplier after Indonesia but the ban on Australian coal - keeping not less than 70 vessels stranded with coal outside China - has been particularly supportive for Panamax, Supramax, and Handysize bulkers, further aided by the rising coastal coal trade in China and alternative to Australia coal origins. Imports are likely to remain strong ahead of the Chinese New Year in mid-February on robust demand, while high utilisation at domestic suppliers is expected to soften high local prices just as colder than average temperatures fade and domestic coal output normalizes.
Another factor to support Panamax and Supramax freight in 2021 is corn and soybean trade. Corn prices have hit multi-year highs on strong demand from China, which has been sourcing increasingly from the US in the context of the Phase 1 trade deal, while production prospects of major suppliers such as Ukraine and Argentina look weaker. US corn futures, a global benchmark, were trading 60% higher from a 10-year low seen in April 2020. The US, the world's largest corn exporter, has seen its 2020-21 total commitments reaching record highs as buyers, again with China leading, rush to secure supplies amid tightening global corn stocks. What is more, Brazil soybean production for 2021 is projected at record high levels, pointing to another strong ECSA export season.
On the supply side, the firm orderbook is currently at a new record low of 5.8% of the fleet (down from approx.10.0% during the same period last year) at 53.4 million dwt or just over 600 vessels, while dry bulk scrap prices surged during the first month of the year, following the broader trend in steel and iron ore prices.
2020 did not offer the best conditions or stability needed for dry new buildings and as such there has been little order replenishment of bulk carriers in 2020 so the orderbook is today smaller than what it was a year ago by about 200 vessels. More specifically, in the new building orderbook out of the about 440 vessels scheduled to be delivered in 2021 only about 350 may actually be delivered assuming a 20% slippage, while there are around 375 trading vessels which are 25 years old or more and thus make candidates for demolition over the next two years. As a result, we project dry bulk fleet to grow by substantially less than 1.5%-2.0% in the next couple of years."
By Theodore Ntalakos,
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
The Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Monday, 25 January 21
ULTRAMAX YET ANOTHER POSITIVE WEEK FOR THE SECTOR, WHICH SAW INCREASED DEMAND ACROSS ALL BASINS - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Capesize market rocked and rolled these past few days. But by weeks end little had changed on the Capesize 5TC as it settled down ...
Monday, 25 January 21
NEW LAW IN CALIFORNIA, USA, AFFECTING SHIPOWNERS' LIABILITY FOR OIL POLLUTION - BIMCO
Members are advised that amendments to the so-called Lempert-Keene-Seastrand Oil Spill Prevention and Response Act of 1990 in the State of Californ ...
Monday, 25 January 21
COAL INDIA SAYS GEARED UP TO MEET SURGE IN FUEL DEMAND FROM POWER SECTOR - PTI
State-owned Coal India Ltd on Saturday said that it is well geared to meet any surge in demand for coal from the power sector.
The s ...
Sunday, 24 January 21
GOVT ASSURES COAL INDIA OF 'FULL SUPPORT', STRESSES ON LEARNING 'NEW THINGS' - PTI
Coal Minister Pralhad Joshi assured Coal India of full government support, even as he said the PSU needs to learn “new things” for impr ...
Saturday, 23 January 21
GOVT PLANNING TO OPEN UP COAL MARKETING TO STREAMLINE PROCESS - THE INDIAN EXPRESS
The government is considering opening up coal marketing, Coal Secretary Anil Kumar Jain said on Thursday. Currently, production by Coal India is al ...
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- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Australian Coal Association
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- MS Steel International - UAE
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
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