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Wednesday, 03 February 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 "2020 the year from hell for the entire world, had everything for shipowners. The introduction of the sulphur cap and VLSFO, a Pandemic outbreak leading to lock-downs around the world, the continuation of the trade war between US and China, China's coal ban from Australia, were just a few of them. On the other hand, 2020 also brought record stimulus packages globally, trillions of US Dollars, Euros and Renminbis that were thrown into the race to fight the recession that the corona-virus would bring otherwise. The shipowners and the shipping industry as a whole quickly adapted to the new standards and made the best out of the situation in the second half of last year. Furthermore, the stimulus combined with the newly emerged spending and consuming patterns and of course the COVID-19 vaccination programs around the globe are leading the way back to normality.
The dry bulk market entered 2021 on a high note supported by the broader inflection in commodity prices and increased congestion at discharging ports in China. China’s domestic thermal coal prices hit new record highs, while coal imports from all countries surged to record levels in December, lifting the annual total to its highest since 2013. In past years, Australia has been the country’s second-biggest supplier after Indonesia but the ban on Australian coal - keeping not less than 70 vessels stranded with coal outside China - has been particularly supportive for Panamax, Supramax, and Handysize bulkers, further aided by the rising coastal coal trade in China and alternative to Australia coal origins. Imports are likely to remain strong ahead of the Chinese New Year in mid-February on robust demand, while high utilisation at domestic suppliers is expected to soften high local prices just as colder than average temperatures fade and domestic coal output normalizes.
Another factor to support Panamax and Supramax freight in 2021 is corn and soybean trade. Corn prices have hit multi-year highs on strong demand from China, which has been sourcing increasingly from the US in the context of the Phase 1 trade deal, while production prospects of major suppliers such as Ukraine and Argentina look weaker. US corn futures, a global benchmark, were trading 60% higher from a 10-year low seen in April 2020. The US, the world's largest corn exporter, has seen its 2020-21 total commitments reaching record highs as buyers, again with China leading, rush to secure supplies amid tightening global corn stocks. What is more, Brazil soybean production for 2021 is projected at record high levels, pointing to another strong ECSA export season.
On the supply side, the firm orderbook is currently at a new record low of 5.8% of the fleet (down from approx.10.0% during the same period last year) at 53.4 million dwt or just over 600 vessels, while dry bulk scrap prices surged during the first month of the year, following the broader trend in steel and iron ore prices.
2020 did not offer the best conditions or stability needed for dry new buildings and as such there has been little order replenishment of bulk carriers in 2020 so the orderbook is today smaller than what it was a year ago by about 200 vessels. More specifically, in the new building orderbook out of the about 440 vessels scheduled to be delivered in 2021 only about 350 may actually be delivered assuming a 20% slippage, while there are around 375 trading vessels which are 25 years old or more and thus make candidates for demolition over the next two years. As a result, we project dry bulk fleet to grow by substantially less than 1.5%-2.0% in the next couple of years."
By Theodore Ntalakos,
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 29 January 21
OPEC+, COVID-19 AND ENERGY TRANSITION - 3 THEMES IMPACTING OIL MARKETS AND REFINING IN 2021 - WOOD MACKENZIE
Wood Mackenzie’s latest outlook report shows that the art of balancing oil markets and the refining sector in 2021 hinges upon three key them ...
Thursday, 28 January 21
STRONG CHINESE THERMAL COAL IMPORTS TO BENEFIT INDONESIAN MINERS IN THE NEAR TERM - FITCH RATINGS
China's thermal coal imports are likely to remain strong ahead of the Chinese New Year in mid-February on robust demand, high utilisation at do ...
Thursday, 28 January 21
WIND PROPULSION FOR DRY BULK CARRIERS - OLDENDORFF
Oldendorff Carriers (OC) has signed a Joint Development Project (JDP) with Anemoi Marine Technologies (Anemoi), Lloyd’s Register (LR) and Sha ...
Thursday, 28 January 21
BUMA PRICED A USD400 MILLION 7.75% 5-YEAR SENIOR NOTES
PT Delta Dunia Makmur Tbk. announced that its subsidiary, PT Bukit Makmur Mandiri Utama priced a USD400 million 5-year (non-callable 2-year)& ...
Wednesday, 27 January 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As we have entered the era off renewable energies, all industries globally give max effort to minimize their carbon footprint and consequently thei ...
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- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- PTC India Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- The University of Queensland
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Australian Coal Association
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
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