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Wednesday, 03 February 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 "2020 the year from hell for the entire world, had everything for shipowners. The introduction of the sulphur cap and VLSFO, a Pandemic outbreak leading to lock-downs around the world, the continuation of the trade war between US and China, China's coal ban from Australia, were just a few of them. On the other hand, 2020 also brought record stimulus packages globally, trillions of US Dollars, Euros and Renminbis that were thrown into the race to fight the recession that the corona-virus would bring otherwise. The shipowners and the shipping industry as a whole quickly adapted to the new standards and made the best out of the situation in the second half of last year. Furthermore, the stimulus combined with the newly emerged spending and consuming patterns and of course the COVID-19 vaccination programs around the globe are leading the way back to normality.
The dry bulk market entered 2021 on a high note supported by the broader inflection in commodity prices and increased congestion at discharging ports in China. China’s domestic thermal coal prices hit new record highs, while coal imports from all countries surged to record levels in December, lifting the annual total to its highest since 2013. In past years, Australia has been the country’s second-biggest supplier after Indonesia but the ban on Australian coal - keeping not less than 70 vessels stranded with coal outside China - has been particularly supportive for Panamax, Supramax, and Handysize bulkers, further aided by the rising coastal coal trade in China and alternative to Australia coal origins. Imports are likely to remain strong ahead of the Chinese New Year in mid-February on robust demand, while high utilisation at domestic suppliers is expected to soften high local prices just as colder than average temperatures fade and domestic coal output normalizes.
Another factor to support Panamax and Supramax freight in 2021 is corn and soybean trade. Corn prices have hit multi-year highs on strong demand from China, which has been sourcing increasingly from the US in the context of the Phase 1 trade deal, while production prospects of major suppliers such as Ukraine and Argentina look weaker. US corn futures, a global benchmark, were trading 60% higher from a 10-year low seen in April 2020. The US, the world's largest corn exporter, has seen its 2020-21 total commitments reaching record highs as buyers, again with China leading, rush to secure supplies amid tightening global corn stocks. What is more, Brazil soybean production for 2021 is projected at record high levels, pointing to another strong ECSA export season.
On the supply side, the firm orderbook is currently at a new record low of 5.8% of the fleet (down from approx.10.0% during the same period last year) at 53.4 million dwt or just over 600 vessels, while dry bulk scrap prices surged during the first month of the year, following the broader trend in steel and iron ore prices.
2020 did not offer the best conditions or stability needed for dry new buildings and as such there has been little order replenishment of bulk carriers in 2020 so the orderbook is today smaller than what it was a year ago by about 200 vessels. More specifically, in the new building orderbook out of the about 440 vessels scheduled to be delivered in 2021 only about 350 may actually be delivered assuming a 20% slippage, while there are around 375 trading vessels which are 25 years old or more and thus make candidates for demolition over the next two years. As a result, we project dry bulk fleet to grow by substantially less than 1.5%-2.0% in the next couple of years."
By Theodore Ntalakos,
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
The Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Wednesday, 10 February 21
FY21 COAL DEMAND MAY BE LOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED DUE TO COVID-19: PRALHAD JOSHI - PTI
Coal demand in the current fiscal may be lower than the initial estimate of 1,085 million tonnes (MT) due to the impact of COVID-19, Parliament was ...
Wednesday, 10 February 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
We have just entered February, Chinese New Year holidays are about to start and the SnP market for bulkers is so hot as every seller would dream of ...
Tuesday, 09 February 21
SWITCHING COAL PLANTS TO PLN'S BIOMASS COFIRING PLAN IS NO MAGIC BULLET - IEEFA
Implementation risks for Indonesia PLN's switch from coal to biomass cofiring
PLN’s biomass cofiring plan will require not ...
Friday, 05 February 21
THE INDONESIA COAL PRICE REFERENCE FOR FEBRUARY 2021 SETTLES AT US$ 87.79 PER TON FOB VESSEL
COALspot.com: The Indonesia coal price reference for February 2021 settles at US$ 87.79 per ton FOB vessel. The February reference price is the hig ...
Thursday, 04 February 21
WHY BANGLADESH SHOULDN’T COUNT ON A FOSSIL FUEL FUTURE - IEEFA
Around US$50 billion of LNG projects in Asia at risk of cancellation
Two astonishing figures have circulated in the Asian energy sector in the ...
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- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Economic Council, Georgia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- The University of Queensland
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Australian Coal Association
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
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