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Wednesday, 03 February 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 "2020 the year from hell for the entire world, had everything for shipowners. The introduction of the sulphur cap and VLSFO, a Pandemic outbreak leading to lock-downs around the world, the continuation of the trade war between US and China, China's coal ban from Australia, were just a few of them. On the other hand, 2020 also brought record stimulus packages globally, trillions of US Dollars, Euros and Renminbis that were thrown into the race to fight the recession that the corona-virus would bring otherwise. The shipowners and the shipping industry as a whole quickly adapted to the new standards and made the best out of the situation in the second half of last year. Furthermore, the stimulus combined with the newly emerged spending and consuming patterns and of course the COVID-19 vaccination programs around the globe are leading the way back to normality.
The dry bulk market entered 2021 on a high note supported by the broader inflection in commodity prices and increased congestion at discharging ports in China. China’s domestic thermal coal prices hit new record highs, while coal imports from all countries surged to record levels in December, lifting the annual total to its highest since 2013. In past years, Australia has been the country’s second-biggest supplier after Indonesia but the ban on Australian coal - keeping not less than 70 vessels stranded with coal outside China - has been particularly supportive for Panamax, Supramax, and Handysize bulkers, further aided by the rising coastal coal trade in China and alternative to Australia coal origins. Imports are likely to remain strong ahead of the Chinese New Year in mid-February on robust demand, while high utilisation at domestic suppliers is expected to soften high local prices just as colder than average temperatures fade and domestic coal output normalizes.
Another factor to support Panamax and Supramax freight in 2021 is corn and soybean trade. Corn prices have hit multi-year highs on strong demand from China, which has been sourcing increasingly from the US in the context of the Phase 1 trade deal, while production prospects of major suppliers such as Ukraine and Argentina look weaker. US corn futures, a global benchmark, were trading 60% higher from a 10-year low seen in April 2020. The US, the world's largest corn exporter, has seen its 2020-21 total commitments reaching record highs as buyers, again with China leading, rush to secure supplies amid tightening global corn stocks. What is more, Brazil soybean production for 2021 is projected at record high levels, pointing to another strong ECSA export season.
On the supply side, the firm orderbook is currently at a new record low of 5.8% of the fleet (down from approx.10.0% during the same period last year) at 53.4 million dwt or just over 600 vessels, while dry bulk scrap prices surged during the first month of the year, following the broader trend in steel and iron ore prices.
2020 did not offer the best conditions or stability needed for dry new buildings and as such there has been little order replenishment of bulk carriers in 2020 so the orderbook is today smaller than what it was a year ago by about 200 vessels. More specifically, in the new building orderbook out of the about 440 vessels scheduled to be delivered in 2021 only about 350 may actually be delivered assuming a 20% slippage, while there are around 375 trading vessels which are 25 years old or more and thus make candidates for demolition over the next two years. As a result, we project dry bulk fleet to grow by substantially less than 1.5%-2.0% in the next couple of years."
By Theodore Ntalakos,
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 10 February 21
FY21 COAL DEMAND MAY BE LOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED DUE TO COVID-19: PRALHAD JOSHI - PTI
Coal demand in the current fiscal may be lower than the initial estimate of 1,085 million tonnes (MT) due to the impact of COVID-19, Parliament was ...
Wednesday, 10 February 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
We have just entered February, Chinese New Year holidays are about to start and the SnP market for bulkers is so hot as every seller would dream of ...
Tuesday, 09 February 21
SWITCHING COAL PLANTS TO PLN'S BIOMASS COFIRING PLAN IS NO MAGIC BULLET - IEEFA
Implementation risks for Indonesia PLN's switch from coal to biomass cofiring
PLN’s biomass cofiring plan will require not ...
Friday, 05 February 21
THE INDONESIA COAL PRICE REFERENCE FOR FEBRUARY 2021 SETTLES AT US$ 87.79 PER TON FOB VESSEL
COALspot.com: The Indonesia coal price reference for February 2021 settles at US$ 87.79 per ton FOB vessel. The February reference price is the hig ...
Thursday, 04 February 21
WHY BANGLADESH SHOULDN’T COUNT ON A FOSSIL FUEL FUTURE - IEEFA
Around US$50 billion of LNG projects in Asia at risk of cancellation
Two astonishing figures have circulated in the Asian energy sector in the ...
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- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Planning Commission, India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- The University of Queensland
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Australian Coal Association
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
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