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Wednesday, 03 February 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 "2020 the year from hell for the entire world, had everything for shipowners. The introduction of the sulphur cap and VLSFO, a Pandemic outbreak leading to lock-downs around the world, the continuation of the trade war between US and China, China's coal ban from Australia, were just a few of them. On the other hand, 2020 also brought record stimulus packages globally, trillions of US Dollars, Euros and Renminbis that were thrown into the race to fight the recession that the corona-virus would bring otherwise. The shipowners and the shipping industry as a whole quickly adapted to the new standards and made the best out of the situation in the second half of last year. Furthermore, the stimulus combined with the newly emerged spending and consuming patterns and of course the COVID-19 vaccination programs around the globe are leading the way back to normality.
The dry bulk market entered 2021 on a high note supported by the broader inflection in commodity prices and increased congestion at discharging ports in China. China’s domestic thermal coal prices hit new record highs, while coal imports from all countries surged to record levels in December, lifting the annual total to its highest since 2013. In past years, Australia has been the country’s second-biggest supplier after Indonesia but the ban on Australian coal - keeping not less than 70 vessels stranded with coal outside China - has been particularly supportive for Panamax, Supramax, and Handysize bulkers, further aided by the rising coastal coal trade in China and alternative to Australia coal origins. Imports are likely to remain strong ahead of the Chinese New Year in mid-February on robust demand, while high utilisation at domestic suppliers is expected to soften high local prices just as colder than average temperatures fade and domestic coal output normalizes.
Another factor to support Panamax and Supramax freight in 2021 is corn and soybean trade. Corn prices have hit multi-year highs on strong demand from China, which has been sourcing increasingly from the US in the context of the Phase 1 trade deal, while production prospects of major suppliers such as Ukraine and Argentina look weaker. US corn futures, a global benchmark, were trading 60% higher from a 10-year low seen in April 2020. The US, the world's largest corn exporter, has seen its 2020-21 total commitments reaching record highs as buyers, again with China leading, rush to secure supplies amid tightening global corn stocks. What is more, Brazil soybean production for 2021 is projected at record high levels, pointing to another strong ECSA export season.
On the supply side, the firm orderbook is currently at a new record low of 5.8% of the fleet (down from approx.10.0% during the same period last year) at 53.4 million dwt or just over 600 vessels, while dry bulk scrap prices surged during the first month of the year, following the broader trend in steel and iron ore prices.
2020 did not offer the best conditions or stability needed for dry new buildings and as such there has been little order replenishment of bulk carriers in 2020 so the orderbook is today smaller than what it was a year ago by about 200 vessels. More specifically, in the new building orderbook out of the about 440 vessels scheduled to be delivered in 2021 only about 350 may actually be delivered assuming a 20% slippage, while there are around 375 trading vessels which are 25 years old or more and thus make candidates for demolition over the next two years. As a result, we project dry bulk fleet to grow by substantially less than 1.5%-2.0% in the next couple of years."
By Theodore Ntalakos,
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 24 February 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
With yields of up to 563%, the shares of Greek shipping companies listed on Wall Street are recorded. The Coronavirus pandemic has not significantl ...
Sunday, 21 February 21
ANZ DIVESTING FROM THE WORLD’S LARGEST COAL EXPORT PORT IS 'PRAGMATISM' - IEEFA
The biggest buyers of Australian thermal coal have committed to net-zero emissions
ANZ, Australia’s third largest bank, has decided to s ...
Sunday, 21 February 21
EDITORIAL: TIME FOR BANGLADESH TO FOCUS ON RENEWABLE ENERGY, NOT COAL - DHAKA TRIBUNE
Shifting away from coal is not only desirable, but absolutely necessary in these times.
In spite of being detrimental to environment ...
Wednesday, 17 February 21
STRANDED ASSETS A LONG-TERM RISK FOR MAJOR FOSSIL FUEL EXPORTERS - FITCH RATINGS
Fossil exporters face a loss of GDP, government revenue and export receipts from the transition to a lower-carbon economy over the coming decades. ...
Friday, 12 February 21
U.S: WIND SURPASSED COAL AS NO. 1 FUEL SOURCE IN 2020 FOR SOUTHWEST POWER POOL - IEEFA
Wind energy growth due to geography, design factors, and new installations
Wind surpassed coal as the primary power generation sourc ...
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- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Australian Coal Association
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- The University of Queensland
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
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