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Wednesday, 03 February 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 "2020 the year from hell for the entire world, had everything for shipowners. The introduction of the sulphur cap and VLSFO, a Pandemic outbreak leading to lock-downs around the world, the continuation of the trade war between US and China, China's coal ban from Australia, were just a few of them. On the other hand, 2020 also brought record stimulus packages globally, trillions of US Dollars, Euros and Renminbis that were thrown into the race to fight the recession that the corona-virus would bring otherwise. The shipowners and the shipping industry as a whole quickly adapted to the new standards and made the best out of the situation in the second half of last year. Furthermore, the stimulus combined with the newly emerged spending and consuming patterns and of course the COVID-19 vaccination programs around the globe are leading the way back to normality.
The dry bulk market entered 2021 on a high note supported by the broader inflection in commodity prices and increased congestion at discharging ports in China. China’s domestic thermal coal prices hit new record highs, while coal imports from all countries surged to record levels in December, lifting the annual total to its highest since 2013. In past years, Australia has been the country’s second-biggest supplier after Indonesia but the ban on Australian coal - keeping not less than 70 vessels stranded with coal outside China - has been particularly supportive for Panamax, Supramax, and Handysize bulkers, further aided by the rising coastal coal trade in China and alternative to Australia coal origins. Imports are likely to remain strong ahead of the Chinese New Year in mid-February on robust demand, while high utilisation at domestic suppliers is expected to soften high local prices just as colder than average temperatures fade and domestic coal output normalizes.
Another factor to support Panamax and Supramax freight in 2021 is corn and soybean trade. Corn prices have hit multi-year highs on strong demand from China, which has been sourcing increasingly from the US in the context of the Phase 1 trade deal, while production prospects of major suppliers such as Ukraine and Argentina look weaker. US corn futures, a global benchmark, were trading 60% higher from a 10-year low seen in April 2020. The US, the world's largest corn exporter, has seen its 2020-21 total commitments reaching record highs as buyers, again with China leading, rush to secure supplies amid tightening global corn stocks. What is more, Brazil soybean production for 2021 is projected at record high levels, pointing to another strong ECSA export season.
On the supply side, the firm orderbook is currently at a new record low of 5.8% of the fleet (down from approx.10.0% during the same period last year) at 53.4 million dwt or just over 600 vessels, while dry bulk scrap prices surged during the first month of the year, following the broader trend in steel and iron ore prices.
2020 did not offer the best conditions or stability needed for dry new buildings and as such there has been little order replenishment of bulk carriers in 2020 so the orderbook is today smaller than what it was a year ago by about 200 vessels. More specifically, in the new building orderbook out of the about 440 vessels scheduled to be delivered in 2021 only about 350 may actually be delivered assuming a 20% slippage, while there are around 375 trading vessels which are 25 years old or more and thus make candidates for demolition over the next two years. As a result, we project dry bulk fleet to grow by substantially less than 1.5%-2.0% in the next couple of years."
By Theodore Ntalakos,
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Saturday, 27 February 21
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE EDGES DOWN - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price dropped slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge ...
Saturday, 27 February 21
FITCH RATINGS REVISES GLOBAL METALS AND MINING PRICE ASSUMPTIONS
Fitch Ratings has revised some of its metals and mining price assumptions as prices for many commodities will benefit in the short term from return ...
Saturday, 27 February 21
MITSUBISHI PULLS OUT OF VINH TAN 3 COAL PROJECT IN VIETNAM - NIKKEI ASIA
Japanese trading house Mitsubishi Corp. decided Thursday to withdraw from the Vinh Tan 3 coal-fired power plant project in Vietnam amid growing int ...
Thursday, 25 February 21
ARE WE ON THE CUSP OF ANOTHER MINING SUPER-CYCLE? - WOOD MACKENZIE
As the first wave of the coronavirus pandemic began to bite, many observers confidently predicted that the end was nigh for global economic activit ...
Thursday, 25 February 21
2020 PROVED TO BE A TRULY TERRIBLE YEAR FOR SEABORNE COAL TRADE - BANCHERO COSTA
Total loadings in the 12 months of 2020 were down -12.7% year-on-year to 1,130 million tonnes, according to vessels tracking data from Refinitiv, s ...
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- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- The University of Queensland
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Planning Commission, India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Economic Council, Georgia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Australian Coal Association
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
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