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Wednesday, 03 February 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 "2020 the year from hell for the entire world, had everything for shipowners. The introduction of the sulphur cap and VLSFO, a Pandemic outbreak leading to lock-downs around the world, the continuation of the trade war between US and China, China's coal ban from Australia, were just a few of them. On the other hand, 2020 also brought record stimulus packages globally, trillions of US Dollars, Euros and Renminbis that were thrown into the race to fight the recession that the corona-virus would bring otherwise. The shipowners and the shipping industry as a whole quickly adapted to the new standards and made the best out of the situation in the second half of last year. Furthermore, the stimulus combined with the newly emerged spending and consuming patterns and of course the COVID-19 vaccination programs around the globe are leading the way back to normality.
The dry bulk market entered 2021 on a high note supported by the broader inflection in commodity prices and increased congestion at discharging ports in China. China’s domestic thermal coal prices hit new record highs, while coal imports from all countries surged to record levels in December, lifting the annual total to its highest since 2013. In past years, Australia has been the country’s second-biggest supplier after Indonesia but the ban on Australian coal - keeping not less than 70 vessels stranded with coal outside China - has been particularly supportive for Panamax, Supramax, and Handysize bulkers, further aided by the rising coastal coal trade in China and alternative to Australia coal origins. Imports are likely to remain strong ahead of the Chinese New Year in mid-February on robust demand, while high utilisation at domestic suppliers is expected to soften high local prices just as colder than average temperatures fade and domestic coal output normalizes.
Another factor to support Panamax and Supramax freight in 2021 is corn and soybean trade. Corn prices have hit multi-year highs on strong demand from China, which has been sourcing increasingly from the US in the context of the Phase 1 trade deal, while production prospects of major suppliers such as Ukraine and Argentina look weaker. US corn futures, a global benchmark, were trading 60% higher from a 10-year low seen in April 2020. The US, the world's largest corn exporter, has seen its 2020-21 total commitments reaching record highs as buyers, again with China leading, rush to secure supplies amid tightening global corn stocks. What is more, Brazil soybean production for 2021 is projected at record high levels, pointing to another strong ECSA export season.
On the supply side, the firm orderbook is currently at a new record low of 5.8% of the fleet (down from approx.10.0% during the same period last year) at 53.4 million dwt or just over 600 vessels, while dry bulk scrap prices surged during the first month of the year, following the broader trend in steel and iron ore prices.
2020 did not offer the best conditions or stability needed for dry new buildings and as such there has been little order replenishment of bulk carriers in 2020 so the orderbook is today smaller than what it was a year ago by about 200 vessels. More specifically, in the new building orderbook out of the about 440 vessels scheduled to be delivered in 2021 only about 350 may actually be delivered assuming a 20% slippage, while there are around 375 trading vessels which are 25 years old or more and thus make candidates for demolition over the next two years. As a result, we project dry bulk fleet to grow by substantially less than 1.5%-2.0% in the next couple of years."
By Theodore Ntalakos,
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 12 March 21
INDIA SHOULD FOCUS ON REDUCING COAL POWER GENERATION INSTEAD OF CAPACITY - IEEFA
Nearly half of existing coal power in India is more expensive than new renewable power
To get to its ambitious climate targets, Indi ...
Friday, 12 March 21
BATTERIES ARE REPLACING COAL NOT GAS - IEEFA
No amount of government subsidies can halt gas’s decline
Batteries are replacing coal not gas.
Today the early ...
Friday, 12 March 21
RENEWABLES SHOULD BE FOCUS OF VIETNAM’S DRAFT PDP8, NOT COAL AND GAS - IEEFA
Evidence was clear to inform the next stage of Vietnam’s power development
Vietnam’s recently published draft power deve ...
Thursday, 11 March 21
U.S. TO PRODUCE 581 MMST IN 2021, UP 8% FROM 2020 - EIA
EIA expects U.S. coal production to total 581 MMst in 2021, 42 MMst (8%) more than in 2020. In 2022, EIA expects coal production to rise by a furth ...
Thursday, 11 March 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Assessing the ship repair sector during the first months of 2021, we have come across a new era in which Owners chose the shipyards to repair their ...
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- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Australian Coal Association
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- The University of Queensland
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- White Energy Company Limited
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
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