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Wednesday, 03 February 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 "2020 the year from hell for the entire world, had everything for shipowners. The introduction of the sulphur cap and VLSFO, a Pandemic outbreak leading to lock-downs around the world, the continuation of the trade war between US and China, China's coal ban from Australia, were just a few of them. On the other hand, 2020 also brought record stimulus packages globally, trillions of US Dollars, Euros and Renminbis that were thrown into the race to fight the recession that the corona-virus would bring otherwise. The shipowners and the shipping industry as a whole quickly adapted to the new standards and made the best out of the situation in the second half of last year. Furthermore, the stimulus combined with the newly emerged spending and consuming patterns and of course the COVID-19 vaccination programs around the globe are leading the way back to normality.
The dry bulk market entered 2021 on a high note supported by the broader inflection in commodity prices and increased congestion at discharging ports in China. China’s domestic thermal coal prices hit new record highs, while coal imports from all countries surged to record levels in December, lifting the annual total to its highest since 2013. In past years, Australia has been the country’s second-biggest supplier after Indonesia but the ban on Australian coal - keeping not less than 70 vessels stranded with coal outside China - has been particularly supportive for Panamax, Supramax, and Handysize bulkers, further aided by the rising coastal coal trade in China and alternative to Australia coal origins. Imports are likely to remain strong ahead of the Chinese New Year in mid-February on robust demand, while high utilisation at domestic suppliers is expected to soften high local prices just as colder than average temperatures fade and domestic coal output normalizes.
Another factor to support Panamax and Supramax freight in 2021 is corn and soybean trade. Corn prices have hit multi-year highs on strong demand from China, which has been sourcing increasingly from the US in the context of the Phase 1 trade deal, while production prospects of major suppliers such as Ukraine and Argentina look weaker. US corn futures, a global benchmark, were trading 60% higher from a 10-year low seen in April 2020. The US, the world's largest corn exporter, has seen its 2020-21 total commitments reaching record highs as buyers, again with China leading, rush to secure supplies amid tightening global corn stocks. What is more, Brazil soybean production for 2021 is projected at record high levels, pointing to another strong ECSA export season.
On the supply side, the firm orderbook is currently at a new record low of 5.8% of the fleet (down from approx.10.0% during the same period last year) at 53.4 million dwt or just over 600 vessels, while dry bulk scrap prices surged during the first month of the year, following the broader trend in steel and iron ore prices.
2020 did not offer the best conditions or stability needed for dry new buildings and as such there has been little order replenishment of bulk carriers in 2020 so the orderbook is today smaller than what it was a year ago by about 200 vessels. More specifically, in the new building orderbook out of the about 440 vessels scheduled to be delivered in 2021 only about 350 may actually be delivered assuming a 20% slippage, while there are around 375 trading vessels which are 25 years old or more and thus make candidates for demolition over the next two years. As a result, we project dry bulk fleet to grow by substantially less than 1.5%-2.0% in the next couple of years."
By Theodore Ntalakos,
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 03 February 21
INDONESIA TO EXPORT 395 MILLION TONS OF COAL IN 2021 - ESDM
Data from the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources shows that, Indonesia is planning to produce 550 million Ton of coal in 2021 and as of t ...
Tuesday, 02 February 21
WILL THE ELECTRONIC B/L BE FULLY IMPLEMENTED? FIVE POINTS TO CONSIDER - MOL
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The trend towards digitization of Bills of Lading (B/L) has begun to attract attention in the trade and shipping industrie ...
Monday, 01 February 21
A 56,000-DWT OPEN MANILA WAS FIXED FOR A TRIP VIA INDONESIA REDELIVERY CHINA AT $11,500 - THE BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Capesize routes endured a week of slippage on rates, bringing the market back down to levels seen at the beginning of the month. D ...
Monday, 01 February 21
PAKISTAN: COAL DEMAND EXPECTED TO SPIKE IN 2021 - DAWN
Coal demand is expected to remain upbeat in 2021 as more coal-fired and captive power plants are coming up in the current year.
Acco ...
Friday, 29 January 21
COAL EXPORTS FROM AUSTRALIA TO MAINLAND CHINA DECLINED BY -22.2% Y-O-Y IN 2020 - BANCHERO COSTA
In the 12 months of 2020, global seaborne coal trade declined by as much as -12.7% year-on-year, according to vessel tracking data from Refinitiv, ...
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- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
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